• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Cary_Snow95 said:
20z HRRR with another shift west
hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_5.png
Click to expand...
I found that the hrrr does a really good job within 10 to 12 hour range but beyond that in the 12 to 18 hour range it seems to struggle at times

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
This HRRR run is going to stick Raleigh into the western edge of the core of this storm now... NW shifts likely not done yet either
Click to expand...
And look at the mixing issues showing up further West as well as you mentioned.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Man Lucy is holding that football up nice and pretty I think I can kick it this time, here goes....

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Shawn said:
I can say that since yesterday, modeling picked up the strange "finger" with a dry slot to it's East. It worked out, and is what gave mby (at least) actual snowfall earlier today, after the virga storm.
Click to expand...
Congrats on your flizzard Shawn. I got nada one flake. Lol. I'm about 5 mins from downtown CAE. Not sure about rest of January, but maybe February can get something our way. Since, typically that's our best month climo wise this time of year. Not sure though with this Nina pattern. We'll see.
 
Webberweather53 said:
HRRR has gone from to to about 3" in Raleigh in the past several runs lol (when accounting for higher ratios). Keep coming...
View attachment 2606
Click to expand...
Certainly that could be wrong but that's within 10 hours and the time frame I most trust the hrrr

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
That's new development ahead of the main precip shield from about Goldsboro to Rocky Mount that has just blossomed within the last half hour or so. Obviously it's virga but it may be tipping it's hand to wear one of the heavier bands may set up later
df8d336753e4c81929fb198165607faf.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
No sooner than Raleigh had basically thrown in the towel they extend the winter weather advisories one-tier County's westward, that's comical.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
No sooner than Raleigh had basically thrown in the towel they extend the winter weather advisories one-tier County's westward, that's comical.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...


As of 450 PM Wednesday

We will add a row of counties to the west to account for current
observational data / radar trends indicating accumulating light snow
in Richmond... Moore... Lee... Chatham... Durham... Granville... and
Vance Counties of the Sandhills and eastern Piedmont. An average of
up to an inch is likely in the Advisory Area

Not even kidding. Huffman even posted he's thinking maybe 1-2" across Raleigh now as well.
 
Both the GFS and the HRRR are been showing more mixing/sleet/ice further inland from the NC coast. I understand this is only 1 run of each, but would that shift also correlate with the increase of snow amounts closer to and around RDU, at least according to RAH?
 
Alex said:
Both the GFS and the HRRR are been showing more mixing/sleet/ice further inland from the NC coast. I understand this is only 1 run of each, but would that shift also correlate with the increase of snow amounts closer to and around RDU, at least according to RAH?
Click to expand...

Yes because it means WAA in the mid-levels is moving deeper inland shifting the convergence zone farther west.
 
Our low is starting to crank and you can see that feature just off the coast, looks like an inverted trough, I'm thinking that is the track... also can see the feeble attempt of cad in Carolinas as Eric mentioned earlier, complex and fascinating system
ccdec982442ea238a60feca273479237.gif


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Looks like I'll be in the snow hole for eastern Johnston Co. Can see precip on radar in three different directions falling, nothing here.
 
Precip flying in eastern Johnston County about 5500' in the air. Can see on radar, but nothing making to ground. Did dry air here just get 'trapped'?
 
Stump said:
Precip flying in eastern Johnston County about 5500' in the air. Can see on radar, but nothing making to ground. Did dry air here just get 'trapped'?
Click to expand...

The precipitation to our west is associated w/ our old vorticity max that helped produce snow & ice in GA/FL, while to the east it's associated with the primary low and the combination of the fading, older vorticity max and cold air advection on the back side of the low (which argues for descent) is leading to the snow hole over Raleigh. It's not something you can accurately predict even a day or two out if that
 
Webberweather53 said:
The precipitation to our west is associated w/ our old vorticity max that helped produce snow & ice in GA/FL, while to the east it's associated with the primary low and the combination of the fading, older vorticity max and cold air advection on the back side of the low (which argues for descent) is leading to the snow hole over Raleigh. It's not something you can accurately predict even a day or two out if that
Click to expand...
Do you expect it to fill in or is raleigh staying high and dry all night
 
HRRR has done horrible with this system. Latest update has KFAY jackpotting more or less - I am addicted to checking each hour, just to laugh
 
Mr. Grinch said:
That band along i95 might be the central NC jackpot

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
That band over me that is dwindling or the band just to my east that is crawling NW.... that's what I'm gonna be watching, just how far west can it get
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top