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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Mr. Grinch said:
Oh man this will be west of 12z
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you beat me to it but heck yeah this is definitely going to be west
 
Webberweather53 said:
Could you imagine if this beast got any closer, the minimum MSLP on this sucker would be the lowest on record at/south of Hatteras in January if the EPS control verified.
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The current record holder as far as I'm aware is January 23-24 1940 w/ a MSLP of 978 hPa right over Hatteras. As a general rule of thumb/benchmark if you want the best snows over RDU we'll need to see this low end up about 50-75 miles or so just east of Hatteras, for those in the Triad and Charlotte, a track over Hatteras is needed to put you in the core, for those along I-95 at least 100 miles offshore, etc.
Here's the MSLP and 1000-500 thickness analysis from ERA-20C. While surface temps were plenty cold, the precipitation changed over to sleet during the height of the storm in RDU while those in Durham and Orange county got plastered w/ heavy/wet snow. This should provide a good general benchmark of where our low needs to be for each specific region of NC to score the most snow
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I'm going to say this kindly, and I'm also going to say don't get excited anyone, but that storm was also historic for Atlanta. I don't think we can rival that storm personally, but I wouldn't mind having a record broken by a low like that.
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
Wow, it appears that eastern North Carolina really got the shaft during the 1940 storm. I've never looked at a precipitation map for Georgia for the storm, but I know that it snowed as far south as my location due to the fact that I have a picture of my eight year old grandfather and his two siblings that was snapped on their front lawn after the event was over.
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Eastern NC got the shaft but most of the rest of the SE US got absolutely crushed. IMO, if you take an area weighted*intensity average of the snow/ice that fell in this storm in January 1940, it's by far and away the #1 event we've ever seen board-wide since at least the mid-late 19th century. Even Larry wasn't left out.
January 21-24 1940 US Snowmap.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, it's unlikely we see a drastic shift in the models, so if you are in the coastal areas of the Carolinas to Raleigh, you should be the ones looking at this storm. If not, let's root for snow there and maybe even down to Savannah.
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I'm going to be a little optimistic and include Charlotte and GSO. After what Webber said it's very unlikely that those areas will get the core but I still think that those areas, especially I-85 corridor points east might get something.
This could end up being like January 2000 only with the precip more east.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Eastern NC got the shaft but most of the rest of the SE US got absolutely crushed. IMO, if you take an area weighted*intensity average of the snow/ice that fell in this storm in January 1940, it's by far and away the #1 event we've ever seen board-wide since at least the mid-late 19th century. Even Larry wasn't left out.
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I wouldn't mind that I got 6-9" according to it
 
18z NAM is going to be close, it may not get there but overall at 500mb is looks improved at 60hrs compared to 12z with a sharper leading shortwave over NE TX and the backside energy in NE KS.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Eastern NC got the shaft but most of the rest of the SE US got absolutely crushed. IMO, if you take an area weighted*intensity average of the snow/ice that fell in this storm in January 1940, it's by far and away the #1 event we've ever seen board-wide since at least the mid-late 19th century. Even Larry wasn't left out.
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Impressive map. I believe that was one of the coldest months on record for parts of Georgia and probably other areas of the Southeast. I’m sure Larry can share the specific records with us.
 
carolinachaos said:
What's up with that GL low, in the past that has been our arch neimisis. Will that affect any thing wrt the system?

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Utterly and completely ignore it. Pretend you never saw it. It won’t matter one bit in the least.
 
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