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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

1300m said:
Wow. I know where a rapidly developing surface low better appear based on this!

namconus_uv250_us_50.png
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Yeah umm lol that low is nowhere close to the best jet dynamics. Should be about 100-150 miles further west based on that alone...
 
1300m said:
Isn't it pretty obvious where the surface low should be tracking with a neg tilted H5 trough and this setting out there? If the low doesn't adjust significantly further west with this setup I'm going to have to go back to school for a while.
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You're good man, absent a drastic change at H5 the primary surface reflection will pass >150 miles off ILM and ~100 miles off HAT, a miss on the MA, followed by a paste bomb for BOS. .
 
You guys around CAE, do not believe some of the wishcasting in here. It's a very low chance as of now without earlier phasing.
 
Stormsfury said:
snku_acc.us_se.png

That's just to the end of the NAM run on Kuchera ratio..
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As I'm sure you saw, the 18Z NAM clobbers practically the entire GA/SC/far NE FL immediate coast with 0.75" of qpf, the best run of any model yet except the 6Z ICON clobber! So, 0.75" of qpf that is practically all wintry. The 0.50" line now goes inland 50+ miles much of SE. A bullseye of 1.5" is 25 miles offshore Hilton Head. Often the NAM is wet biased. So, I'm quite wary about that. However, even if the qpf is cut in half, this is still a major hit. Also, the trend has been wetter. So, these amounts may not be as inflated as usual, if at all.
 
GaWx said:
As I'm sure you saw, the 18Z NAM clobbers practically the entire GA/SC/far NE FL immediate coast with 0.75" of qpf, the best run of any model yet except the 6Z ICON clobber! So, 0.75" of qpf that is practically all wintry. The 0.50" line now goes inland 50+ miles much of SE. A bullseye of 1.5" is 25 miles offshore Hilton Head. Often the NAM is wet biased. So, I'm quite wary about that. However, even if the qpf is cut in half, this is still a major hit. Also, the trend has been wetter. So, these amounts may not be as inflated as usual, if at all.
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My drunken map I made you quickly last night ended up verifying on the newer NAM. That's just silly! I think you stand a chance with this one, surely!
 
Looks like our secondary wave is a little stronger, likely translating to a bit quicker soon.
 
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