Stormsfury
Member
About the same, negligible differences IMO
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
About the same, negligible differences IMO
No doubt. I think this is going to sit just off shore near JaxIsn't it pretty obvious where the surface low should be tracking with a neg tilted H5 trough and this setting out there? If the low doesn't adjust significantly further west with this setup I'm going to have to go back to school for a while.
Stout dry layer
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This phrase, commonly seen in winter, represents Stage 3 in the 5 stages of grief over a snowstorm that is slowly slipping away.
Once again like most models have been doing, the 18Z GFS has the sfc low move NE from Grand Bahama Island. If it had instead moved NNE like the NAM and ICON runs have been showing, it would have been a major SE coastal hit. So, which direction is that low likely to travel?
SimeonNC
Member
I don't think this is slipping away though.
Snowflowxxl
Member
You also didn’t think the 28/29 “storm” was slipping away..
How so? We are legitimately 20 miles from 1-2 on the uk/euro and 40 miles from the jackpot.
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I was just kind of kidding. It could go either way. But I can tell you this: I’ve heard how models are wrong for not showing snow way more than I’ve actually seen snow falling from the sky.
See below....or above.
SimeonNC
Member
Except this situation is entirely different, we've been seeing positive trends all day, this is most likely just the GFS being goofy again.
SimeonNC
Member
Well we'll see with the next few runs, honestly I think you're in a really good spot.
The GFS wasn't some huge East shift. Lol
Yeah, I’m just hoping to see some snow falls big for a change. It’s definitely not too far away from something nice for this area. It I want to go ahead and start seeing a model show me something.
I'll take that look all day long and call it a Winter, I don't care what the surface reflection is right nowWell then.
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Let's just phase the shortwaves, tilt the base of the trough negative, close it off. That would solve a lot of problems
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18z ICON showing a better idea than the GFS, me thinks.
Still another ICON run (at least 5 in a row) with a NNE move of the surface low from Grand Bahama Island, which is similar to recent NAM runs and leads to major impacts making it onto land, but different from most other models with their NE movement and thus less impact on land.