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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Shawn said:
Look at the RH maps. Its a very sharp cutoff with moisture in the upper atmosphere.
Click to expand...
I did. I see the sharp cut off. If the current models gave the ultimate solution of what was going to happen Wednesday then yeh, no snow for us. But until the West trend stops, I don't think saying CAE is still in the game is all that ridiculous.
 
Here is the 18z NAM around the CAE area; we shall see:

2017123118_NAM_078_34.01_-80.65_winter_ml.png
 
GFS a bit quicker with wave interaction. Won't be worse, that's for sure.
 
Shawn said:
Here is the 18z NAM around the CAE area; we shall see:
I mean i don't wanna get my hopes up and have them shot down either man. But I guess time will tell lol I'm secretly loving these trends though.

2017123118_NAM_078_34.01_-80.65_winter_ml.png
Click to expand...
 
Myrtle Beach, OBX. Not a horrible run! Think 12z may have been a bit better for those areas.
 
If the GFS can't get the low right even within short range, then why bother lol? It definitely looks like it should be closer to the coast.
 
I think the convective problem may be back, but I am not sure. Here is a map to hopefully figure it out: (@ 850 its a bit messy too)

gfs_z500_vort_seus_13.png
 
Looks like overall, the low was a tick West. But the precip field doesn't reflect that.
 
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