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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Hour 9, a small hole persists, but most areas around the hole are at a solid 1-2 inches of snow.

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Backside of that precip is closing in fast. Not sure how the RAP and HRRR show snow around here until 1:00 AM.
 
Honestly I always thought people were exaggerating about the "RDU Snow Hole", but it's starting to look like it really exists. Snowing to their east, south, and west. I still think everyone in the RDU area see snow, but there's clearly going to be a snow min in that area based on current obs. and HRRR.
 
Alex said:
Wasn't it Eric who thought Burlington would be the furthest west more than likely? I know I read it here, quite possible I read several folks say it.
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I said that. Looks like I was off by about 20 miles. Snowing in east Greenboro.
 
Alex said:
Wasn't it Eric who thought Burlington would be the furthest west more than likely? I know I read it here, quite possible I read several folks say it.
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I said Greensboro-Charlotte with the highest totals centered near US-1 or I-95. This isn't going to verify due to the snow hole that developed while the southwestern piedmont and southern Sandhills will probably perform about to what I expected. Already over 3" in Rockingham and Raeford
 
Rain Cold said:
Wonder if it will be snowing before 11?
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This is literally the biggest screw job in history... If we actually weren't this dry in the low-levels we would have probably verified the 4-8" I expected given what has fallen in the southwestern piedmont where many are getting close to 3-4" already. There's honestly not a whole lot I can do about this, it's virtually impossible to see these mesoscale-microscale details more than several hours out... At least I captured the western edge of the precipitation shield
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is literally the biggest screw job in history... If we actually weren't this dry in the low-levels we would have probably verified the 4-8" I expected given what has fallen in the southwestern piedmont where many are getting close to 3-4" already. There's honestly not a whole lot I can do about this, it's virtually impossible to see these mesoscale-microscale details more than several hours out...
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So is Raleigh gonna see anything....
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is literally the biggest screw job in history... If we actually weren't this dry in the low-levels we would have probably verified the 4-8" I expected given what has fallen in the southwestern piedmont where many are getting close to 3-4" already. There's honestly not a whole lot I can do about this, it's virtually impossible to see these mesoscale-microscale details more than several hours out...
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This is definitely not a typical system. Normally once the western edge sets up just west of the triad, everything to the east should have been covered up with increasingly heavier rates. Then you get the mega deformation band. The double lows consolidating into one created that dry slot. Hopefully RDU can cash in on an inch or two.

I feel like I’ve worked so hard to try to get Raleigh an inch of snow. I’M TIRED!!
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is literally the biggest screw job in history... If we actually weren't this dry in the low-levels we would have probably verified the 4-8" I expected given what has fallen in the southwestern piedmont where many are getting close to 3-4" already. There's honestly not a whole lot I can do about this, it's virtually impossible to see these mesoscale-microscale details more than several hours out... At least I captured the western edge of the precipitation shield
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Yeah, nothing you can do about it. Really sucks the way this turned out. Certainly appreciate all your thoughts and analysis through this system, though.
 
Not to make fun of you Eric, but I have literally NEVER seen a screw job like this in my life where Savannah and Charleston are getting more snow than Atlanta and Raleigh! Unbelievable! But there's nothing we can do about it but laugh it off I guess. @Webberweather53
I feel your pain and frustration man. This will be remembered as the wtf system for sure.
 
Oh Raleigh folks... Feel my pain from 3/1/09. There truly isn't anything you can do with where the dry slot sets up. Also, the Fayetteville thing actually has me wondering a bit about my older cousin and his family as he's stationed there (military).
 
This is typical for AL. Not necessarily the phenomenon itself, but the fact that a few miles separates jackpot from jackcrap. Welcome to the club Carolina folks!
 
The same exact thing that’s happening in Raleigh, happened in Columbia today. The city sat in a dry hole for hours while virga filled in all around the city. Eventually, when it filled in it was way to late.
 
Must be the State fans in Raleigh.

Seriously, this is not new for Raleigh. Happens all the time in this area for some reason. You'd think we would be in a good spot far enough north and close to the Coast and far enough west from the other direction to get more snow. But it's usually something like a dry nose or dry layer that screws things up.
 
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NWS RAH just upped their totals and I just can't see how this is going to verify for Wake County after being in the dry slot for so long. I would absolutely love to be proven wrong though.
 
RDUHeatIsland said:
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NWS RAH just upped their totals and I just can't see how this is going to verify for Wake County after being in the dry slot for so long. I would absolutely love to be proven wrong though.
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They seem to be doing the opposite of what is actually happening all day.
 
Atlanta was never going to receive any type of frozen precipitation from this storm, but I can't adequately state just how frustrating watching measurable snow falling thirty miles south of you and nothing falling from the sky at your house is.
 
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