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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Close off please
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1300m said:
I could see this trending far enough west that sleet significantly cuts down on totals along the coast, but all rain is not happening.
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A track further enough west would mean just rain for the coastal areas,which is a good possibility considering the west trends(before the energy even gets sampled).Climatology and possibly the storm track over once the Northwest trend ends just doesn't support a winter storm for coastal regions of Georgia,South Carolina or North Carolina(outside of the Northern Outer Banks).
 
Big improvement vs 12z with the interactions, timing in now less than 3 hours for a big phasing event over the FL Panhandle, this would tuck a coastal much closer to the coast with mixing here, maybe even RN.
 
Michael21 said:
A track further enough west would mean just rain for the coastal areas,which is a good possibility considering the west trends(before the energy even gets sampled).Climatology and possibly the storm track over once the Northwest trend ends just doesn't support a winter storm for coastal regions of Georgia,South Carolina or North Carolina(outside of the Northern Outer Banks).
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It's not going that far west
 
Michael21 said:
A track further enough west would mean just rain for the coastal areas,which is a good possibility considering the west trends(before the energy even gets sampled).Climatology and possibly the storm track over once the Northwest trend ends just doesn't support a winter storm for coastal regions of Georgia,South Carolina or North Carolina(outside of the Northern Outer Banks).
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Bro...how many times are you going to mention this?

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El Kabong said:
Impressive map. I believe that was one of the coldest months on record for parts of Georgia and probably other areas of the Southeast. I’m sure Larry can share the specific records with us.
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Yeah, the second half of January 1940 was basically like this upcoming week. However, the temperature anomalies were much colder than what we will even see in the very near future. While our area did get snow out of this system depicted above, our biggest event in the first half of the twentieth century was the storm on 2/25-26/1914.
 
Michael21 said:
A track further enough west would mean just rain for the coastal areas,which is a good possibility considering the west trends(before the energy even gets sampled).Climatology and possibly the storm track over once the Northwest trend ends just doesn't support a winter storm for coastal regions of Georgia,South Carolina or North Carolina(outside of the Northern Outer Banks).
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I'm going to serve it to you raw: This is not Atlanta's storm. It never can be. Snow will not reach Atlanta in any way.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm going to serve it to you raw: This is not Atlanta's storm. It never can be. Snow will not reach Atlanta in any way.
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I wouldn't say never. I think he is wishcasting, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that there's a remote chance parts of the Atlanta metro get something out of this even if it's a dusting....maybe the S or SE parts of the metro.
 
Now need that low to go bout 300 NW in next 24-36 hours and watch SE and this board go bonkers....hey I'm gonna wishcast and watching models. It's just like watching your favorite team come back from a 24 point deficit with a quarter and half left in superbowl... stupid Pats!!!! #still angry
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm going to say this kindly, and I'm also going to say don't get excited anyone, but that storm was also historic for Atlanta. I don't think we can rival that storm personally, but I wouldn't mind having a record broken by a low like that.
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Yeah I don't think we're gonna be able to get this storm to come that far west, the negative tilt of the parent trough in the January 1940 is nothing like I've ever seen before, aside from maybe the March 1993 superstorm, if that. The amount of barotropic energy conversion this thing underwent is mind-blowing.
Here's a 500 hpa vorticity, height, and wind animation for the Jan 1940 event via ERA-20C so you can see what I'm talking about
Jan-22-25-1940-500-hPa-animation.gif
 
You can see the backing over the Delmarva at 850, this has the hallmark of a cold core conveyor setting up, maybe down in to SC just east of CAE.
 
1300m said:
Isn't it pretty obvious where the surface low should be tracking with a neg tilted H5 trough and this setting out there? If the low doesn't adjust significantly further west with this setup I'm going to have to go back to school for a while.

namconus_T2m_seus_50.png
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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah I don't think we're gonna be able to get this storm to come that far west, the negative tilt of the parent trough in the January 1940 is nothing like I've ever seen before, aside from maybe the March 1993 superstorm, if that. The amount of barotropic energy conversion this thing underwent is mind-blowing.
Here's a 500 hpa vorticity, height, and wind animation for the Jan 1940 event via ERA-20C so you can see what I'm talking about
Jan-22-25-1940-500-hPa-animation.gif
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This is just :confused:
 
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