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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Webberweather53 said:
Yes, the system strengthens rapidly because in an instant occlusion process at the large-scale a shortwave is rotating within the base of an upper level trough and the incipient disturbance catches up w/ a residual arctic frontal boundary and effectively strengthens the temperature (baroclinicity) and vorticity advection over it. Essentially what this looks like on satellite is you'll see (as we saw this morning) a baroclinic leaf cloud structure develop to the west of an elongated moderate-deep cloud mass and as time progresses, this will overrun this cloud mass associated with the arctic front and it'll eventually create a classic comma head structure to the storm that's often associated w/ stereotypical monster extratropical cyclones
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Thank you. That makes sense. The new 12k NAM has a much, much more consolidated storm and is much closer to the coast than even the 18z HRRR, which is showing a decent precip shield inland. The 12k NAM has pretty much the same look as the 12z run. Still waiting on the 3k, but it looks like it's going to be as bad as the 12k.
 
I just saw where Tropical Tidbits added the HRDPS Canadian Mesoscale model. Anyone used it before?
 
Even though the HRRR ticked westward again, like previous runs it's still probably developing way too much deep convection further east so further adjustments are possible... Frictional convergence and higher baroclincity further west are likely contributing to its poor handling of the low track
 
Rain Cold said:
Thank you. That makes sense. The new 12k NAM has a much, much more consolidated storm and is much closer to the coast than even the 18z HRRR, which is showing a decent precip shield inland. The 12k NAM has pretty much the same look as the 12z run. Still waiting on the 3k, but it looks like it's going to be as bad as the 12k.
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Be great if we can have a change now that's actually favorable.
 
Rain Cold said:
Thank you. That makes sense. The new 12k NAM has a much, much more consolidated storm and is much closer to the coast than even the 18z HRRR, which is showing a decent precip shield inland. The 12k NAM has pretty much the same look as the 12z run. Still waiting on the 3k, but it looks like it's going to be as bad as the 12k.
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Minor improvements over the 12z, at least it wasn't a complete wiff.... time to start straining eyes at the radar and screaming for echos to move nw

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metwannabe said:
Minor improvements over the 12z, at least it wasn't a complete wiff.... time to start straining eyes at the radar and screaming for echos to move nw

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This run at least stretched a finger of precip back nw. Maybe it's trying to overcome dry air??
nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_11.png
 
metwannabe said:
Minor improvements over the 12z, at least it wasn't a complete wiff.... time to start straining eyes at the radar and screaming for echos to move nw

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That weird finger of precip that lingers through the Triangle or just west, and then the big gap to the east is just weird. I don't expect that to happen that way.

The HRRR continues to slightly improve!
 
I can say that since yesterday, modeling picked up the strange "finger" with a dry slot to it's East. It worked out, and is what gave mby (at least) actual snowfall earlier today, after the virga storm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Virga is down to about 2000 feet in Raleigh, the flakes are about to fly shortly. Snow has already begun to accumulate anywhere between a dusting to half inch over Southern Pines and Rockingham.
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You mentioned some CAD trying to kick in, are you still seeing that?
 
It looks like the virga is leaving to the east, unless it builds back up as the storm strengthens I'm not sure if CLT proper is gonna see anything.
 
SimeonNC said:
It looks like the virga is leaving to the east, unless it builds back up as the storm strengthens I'm not sure if CLT proper is gonna see anything.
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was doubtful that we would either way, but I'm giving up on even token flakes considering the amount of virga we've had and how dry it still remains as the moisture starts to lift out. was never our storm anyway
 
Damn Brett Adair has an amazing love live feed from South Carolina. Holy s*** looks like something you would see I'm the NE
 
Webberweather53 said:
Friend in Rockingham has already reported 0.5" of snow and counting. Virga down to about 1500 feet now in Raleigh just a matter of time at this point...
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NWS Raleigh pretty much throwing in the towel on any accums at this point back this way. Really playing up the dry air.
 
Rain Cold said:
NWS Raleigh pretty much throwing in the towel on any accums at this point back this way. Really playing up the dry air.
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That's obviously not the case for our friends down the highway 1 corridor south of Sanford, accumulation already in Moore & Richmond counties where there wasn't even a winter weather advisory issued
 
Webberweather53 said:
That's obviously not the case for our friends down the highway 1 corridor south of Sanford, accumulation already in Moore & Richmond counties where there wasn't even a winter weather advisory issued
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Lol agreed.
 
Rain Cold said:
NWS Raleigh pretty much throwing in the towel on any accums at this point back this way. Really playing up the dry air.
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Yeah they say a dusting in the Eastern Piedmont and their words they concede that is the worst case scenario.

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metwannabe said:
Yeah they say a dusting in the Eastern Piedmont and their words they concede that is the worst case scenario.

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It makes me feel much better that I gave some of the eastern piedmont just west of RDU a dusting-3" in my initial forecast. I almost changed it and released a new map today but decided against it in seeing how poorly the RAP & HRRR were handling this & trending NW substantially and they likely haven't corrected enough yet. Starting to get a little concerned that areas near and east of Elizabeth City where there's a blizzard warning atm might have mixing issues
 
Webberweather53 said:
This HRRR run is going to stick Raleigh into the western edge of the core of this storm now... NW shifts likely not done yet either
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Last shift went from Orange County to just past Alamance. Just waiting to see the actual snow start falling now.
 
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