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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

GaWX or anyone else with an extensive storm history knowledge, has there ever been an event historically similar to the one that occurred in December 1989? I've looked before, but have never found anything remotely similar to the final snowfall maps or weather conditions that prompted the storm.
 
Stormsfury said:
It did. We had a couple of precursor events as well much like Thursday night's light ice event and potential for later today/tonight.

My reanalysis comparisons above to our setup now makes me believe more are in the game this time compared to 1989
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I have no recollection of the event at all due to being only two, but the snow in Georgia stopped thirty miles south of my location and my father told me on numerous occasions that the only thing that anyone was calling for was just intense cold to occur. With this situation, I completely agree that the QPF field would possibly be more north.
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
GaWX or anyone else with an extensive storm history knowledge, has there ever been an event historically similar to the one that occurred in December 1989? I've looked before, but have never found anything remotely similar to the final snowfall maps or weather conditions that prompted the storm.
Click to expand...

I think Dec 1989 is the closest we have compared to everything else. Practically all our other hits are from s/w entering California
 
I would say if your NW of MCN to CAE to CLT to GSO and points South and East **IF** it keeps trending better we are in shot for sure. As of NOW** I would say RDU to inbtwn CAE and CHS to Valdosta has the best shot if it only trends a little better.
**I do think if it gets super better, maybe Southern MS and southern AL and NOLA **COULD** have a shot if we can pop the low in the GOM
 
NAVGEM wants to show the panhandle some love

navgem_mslp_pcpn_seus_13.png
 
I cant emphasize this enough, but exactly where that low forms off of OR exits the east coast of Florida , will determine where the precip line ends up getting cut off at. It will be a sharp one to no doubt.
Right now it's south Florida, a couple hours earlier on the phase and it will adjust north, hopefully sitting off atleast the central coast of Florida. My preferable is Jax, but that would be some serious wish casting and most likely not attainable.
Stormsfury map shows you the 1989 scenerio, I remeber wilmington getting a foot while I sat in Nash County and saw 5 mins of flurries. Painful. I ALSO REMEBER Jan 2000 and if you look back our sfc low popped off Jax. So their is a good metric or geographic pin the tail on the donkey target to keep in mind and root for. I'll settle for .10 making it to the surface here with 15 to 1 ratios and call it a win.

Webb makes a good point. I've just come in from outside and temp is 25 with thick clouds. I can't even see my breathe it's so dry.
 
Except...we're a few days away from go time. This would have reason if we were 5 days away but we're 3 days away and everything involved with this is going to be sampled pretty good soon. I think this can get further west but not too much further.
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
I have no recollection of the event at all due to being only two, but the snow in Georgia stopped thirty miles south of my location and my father told me on numerous occasions that the only thing that anyone was calling for was just intense cold to occur. With this situation, I completely agree that the QPF field would possibly be more north.
Click to expand...

That Friday nothing was in the forecast. It clouded up here in my area (just NW of North Charleston)... then a couple of hours before sleet started ay 6pm that night in the 22nd, quickly changing to snow 630pm. Forecast 1" .. then 1-3" ... every cycle forecasted more as the event kept intensifying. It was catch up forecasts throughout the event
 
Stormsfury said:
It did. We had a couple of precursor events as well much like Thursday night's light ice event and potential for later today/tonight.

My reanalysis comparisons above to our setup now makes me believe more are in the game this time compared to 1989
Click to expand...


The recent trends with the Phase occurring faster and further west(before the energy is even sampled) could actually take the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina out of the game for snow. I could actually see Most of Alabama,most of Georgia,most of South Carolina actually getting snow with this system.This mid week system is looking more like January of 2000 and 1940 then December of 1989.
 
Stormsfury said:
That Friday nothing was in the forecast. It clouded up here in my area (just NW of North Charleston)... then a couple of hours before sleet started ay 6pm that night in the 22nd, quickly changing to snow 630pm. Forecast 1" .. then 1-3" ... every cycle forecasted more as the event kept intensifying. It was catch up forecasts throughout the event
Click to expand...
Much the same down here; sleet, freezing rain, a good glaze and then it snowed from very early AM until late mid-afternoon; ended up with about an inch and a half of frozen water with snow on top. It never showed on any TV or newspaper forecast (internet was infant then) and during the event our local NWS, radio and TV were clueless ...
 
Michael21 said:
The recent trends with the Phase occurring faster and further west(before the energy is even sampled) could actually take the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina out of the game for snow. I could actually see Most of Alabama,most of Georgia,most of South Carolina actually getting snow with this system.This mid week system is looking more like January of 2000 and 1940 then December of 1989.
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I can't see that happening at all. Best case is as Chris said, would be a small stripe of light snow across far southern LA,MS,AL before it intensifies around Valdosta, GA. Obviously I would love for your setup to happen, but it's less than 1% chance realisticly.
 
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We do also realize that if a Carolina Crusher scenario actually does by some way occur, it still doesn't necessarily mean that areas further west are going to get snow, right? If so it'd be an East Georgia and eastward scenario.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Except...we're a few days away from go time. This would have reason if we were 5 days away but we're 3 days away and everything involved with this is going to be sampled pretty good soon. I think this can get further west but not too much further.
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Three days away is still a lot of time.There have been systems that have trend well west before within the three day range and with the phasing concurring earlier and further west, could give most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina a snow event.We have seen many systems tend much further northwest as we get closer and I see no reason this would be different.
 
hmmm, decided to compare this recent CMC run with the last one that really gave interior Georgia and South Carolina anything and if anything were to happen at all, the trailer really needs to be more diggy and it's likely too late for that...
 
Food for thought. Last January we tracked a storm that showed sig snow in the coastal areas on Wednesday morning January 4th. By the model runs on Thursday the 5th RDU was dealing with mixing issues. And the final outcome was GSO getting clobbered when just two days before it showed an inch for them. It is still early
 
Michael21 said:
Three days away is still a lot of time.There have been systems that have trend well west before within the three day range and with the phasing concurring earlier and further west, could give most of Alabama,Northern Georgia,Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina a snow event.We have seen many systems tend much further northwest as we get closer and I see no reason this would be different.
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True we do see NW trends at times but that energy is gonna have to keep on driving big jumps west ever run and keep that interaction with secondary wave to be able to get a low on the west coast of G
FL going across to given anyone outside of SC, NC, and extreme east GA a punches chance its a lot to ask but hey that why we watch and wishcast
 
Stormsfury said:
I think Dec 1989 is the closest we have compared to everything else. Practically all our other hits are from s/w entering California
Click to expand...

The biggest issue I have with the December 1989 comparisons is as I mentioned a day or so ago, the trough axis was positively tilted across the SE US which suppressed the low offshore, this time we have a trough that's negatively tilted and the surface high is weaker over the midwest
 
Stormsfury said:
I think Dec 1989 is the closest we have compared to everything else. Practically all our other hits are from s/w entering California
Click to expand...

Here's what NARR shows from PSU e-wall. Sure the overall evolution is similar, but the tilting of the longwave trough and surface high intensity over the midwest are a few important wrinkles that could dynamically adjust this event further NW... Our trough is already going to be neutrally tilted by the time it passes the lower MS valley, the December 1989 event was positively tilted all the way to the SE US coastline which again shoves the low pressure track well offshore. There's a lot more room for this to move NW in this case relative to Dec 1989.

ecmwf_z500a_us_4.png

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