Brett
Member
If I get what the euro shows I'll be above avg. I avg 5" a year in SE Va let the trends continue
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Reasonably speaking, I have never seen a winter in which we get a large storm and then an even larger one. The only exception is maybe 2010 and 2011.
Stormsfury
Member
Alright, bear with me as I put this togethed but unbelievable similarities with this setup with Dec 1989.
For time saving sake I will post only the reanalysis maps..
Dec 23rd 1989, 6z
Look familiar in the progged setup vs Dec 1989. Although I will believe that our current setup favors more neutral tilt based on today's modeling at 12z...(hopefully we will get a more favorable low placement).
12z 12/23/17
Low is ariund 75°W but at 500mb, understandable with a still slightly positively tilted trough. The 12z suite jas it going neutral around AL/MS today. The 1989 event was LATER in the tilt.
Now we head to 12/24/89..
Closer to neutral but still thumped Eastern Carolinas, East GA and NE FL as well as eventually SE VA then out to sea.
Our current 12z guidance setup argues for a bit closer tug to our surface low with a quicker phase and bombing of the SLP pressure system .. once all the convective feedback mayhem settles.
For time saving sake I will post only the reanalysis maps..
Dec 23rd 1989, 6z
Look familiar in the progged setup vs Dec 1989. Although I will believe that our current setup favors more neutral tilt based on today's modeling at 12z...(hopefully we will get a more favorable low placement).
12z 12/23/17
Low is ariund 75°W but at 500mb, understandable with a still slightly positively tilted trough. The 12z suite jas it going neutral around AL/MS today. The 1989 event was LATER in the tilt.
Now we head to 12/24/89..
Closer to neutral but still thumped Eastern Carolinas, East GA and NE FL as well as eventually SE VA then out to sea.
Our current 12z guidance setup argues for a bit closer tug to our surface low with a quicker phase and bombing of the SLP pressure system .. once all the convective feedback mayhem settles.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Jesus Christ, really man? It’s NYE for God’s sake
Cary_Snow95
Member
So I take it you’re liking RDUs chance with the nw trend. I’m trying to temper my excitement.. for now
Michael21
Member
The piece of energy have been phasing sooner and west each of the model runs.That's before even the sampling of the energy,which will be sampled tomorrow morning.I believe that Northern Georgia,Most of Alabama,central and Upstate South Carolina and maybe even Western North Carolina still have a shot .We are still 78-84 hours away from the system and systems trend west as we get closer.
CentralGAColdFront
Member
I may be wrong in this statement, but I think that it actually snowed in places like Panama City and Pensacola, FL in 1989 before South Georgia/Coastal Carolinas got clobbered. It doesn't appear that such a thing will transpire in this situation unless this system really blossoms to the west.
Stormsfury
Member
Also as the 1989 event trough went NEG tilt, look what happened at the SFC low ...
Absolutely started deepening rapidly and retrograded a bit as the occlusion started taking place by then..
Absolutely started deepening rapidly and retrograded a bit as the occlusion started taking place by then..
sigwx
Member
I'm not real sure of that maybe after the first 10 days of Feb. that may be correct
I like the potential of the players we have on the field but like you I am trying to keep expectations in check. It would be just as easy to see 2-4 inches of snow as it would full sun with a stratus deck on the eastern horizon
GeorgiaGirl
Member
IF the phase keeps trending earlier, more people are in the game. I'm not saying it will though and saying that everyone is still in the game is indeed wishcasting.
SimeonNC
Member
The realistic best case scenario for this imo would be a flizzard to maybe a dusting in CLT-GSO with increasing amounts as you go east to the coastal plain. I'm not holding out much hope for this storm for my backyard but it's still fun tracking it.
DLI4SCwx
Member
Storm...We'd need a phase to occur around Arkansas or Miss to help the interior portions of SC ,correct? I can't wait till our wave enters the US and we can get better model samples.Also as the 1989 event trough went NEG tilt, look what happened at the SFC low ...
Absolutely started deepening rapidly and retrograded a bit as the occlusion started taking place by then..
Michael21
Member
I believe the system could trend west enough to the point where the coast get nothing besides rain and maybe flurries on the backside.This system is becoming much more like January of 2000 and 1940 then December of 1989 by seeing the recent trends with the energy and storm track.
Stormsfury
Member
It did. We had a couple of precursor events as well much like Thursday night's light ice event and potential for later today/tonight.
My reanalysis comparisons above to our setup now makes me believe more are in the game this time compared to 1989
Cary_Snow95
Member
Ummm the new NAVGEM is amaze balls. I can’t unsee it. Low gets tucked in near the coast
Stormsfury
Member
Probably would work well. I still think Columbia [your area] has room to see something.
CentralGAColdFront
Member
The one positive that anyone outside of the coastal areas has it that situations like this usually tend to trend NW and the models have been adopting this trend over the past few runs, but I'm honestly starting to think that it may not be enough for everyone to cash in. I would feel better the further east that I resided in the region, but nothing is set in stone at the current moment. However, this has the potential to be an event where locations in Georgia get more snow than places of a similar latitude in Alabama/Mississippi.
I agree!