BHS1975
Member
The 3km NAM has the low right and we get notta.
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You could pick another model showing the same thing. You have a lot to choose from. I don't know if they're right, but they're all showing it, regardless of whether the low was initialized at a different location on one model.I get that, but do we trust the NAM if it has the low placement wrong to begin with, and if things go negative tilt sooner than the NAM shows?
And that doesn't seem to go with what the models show. I guess the NWS is looking at what's happening and thinking the precip is going to be further west than the models show.Matthew East @eastwx 2m2 minutes ago
Expansion westward of the advisory is imminent in the Carolinas. #ncwx #scwx
Matthew East @eastwx 2m2 minutes ago
Expansion westward of the advisory is imminent in the Carolinas. #ncwx #scwx
You can't be sane and do this for a hobby.Sun has peaked out here. Hope you Carolina boys keep your sanity.
CAE always waits :/GSP NWS and CAE NWS are not on the same page lol
You can't be sane and do this for a hobby.
Must be what Matthew East saw.It's in my opinion undeniable that it's gone negative.
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It hasn't started to come up the coast yet.We need that low to pop in the ne gulf and ride just off shore to get much here. This one just ain’t happening for us as it’s too far offshore for anything here. The coast will get nailed.
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It's in my opinion undeniable that it's gone negative.
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It's the CAE way don't cha know? Lol Seriously though, they just want to make sure they have looked at everything upon them to make a sound, assertive decision.Look at the NWS site and look at what counties are under an advisory and which ones aren't. It looks ridiculous.
So what's your thought on the models still having the precip east and this idea of the low further off shore taking over like the NAM shows?Looks like this storm is about to show Phil some well deserved love.
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Yeah I don't know anymore, wv looks good, appears negative already, Radar looks good but I'm with RC it sure would do a body good to have some model support. 11th hour everything going wrong direction12z HRRR had me buying lottery tickets. 13z told me it was a bad idea
It would be pure insanity to see no QPF along the I-95 corridor given what's in place esp seeing how close our low gets to Hatteras...
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It's just getting started.Had held high hopes for this storm. The model consensus was really good, and should have been pretty telling for anyone in the Triangle area. This is a light event for the most part and now looks to be confined to the areas the models have been showing us all along (east of Triangle). IMO, the models did a fantastic job of allowing us to see what was going to take shape well beforehand.
This is a win for the models and a loss for MBY.
Yeah, that's what I don't get. Everything looks positive with what is actually happening and what we see on radar, but the models don't match. Everyone is talking about the precip being further west because it goes negative tilt sooner, but the models still don't show that. Really hard to figure out.Yeah I don't know anymore, wv looks good, appears negative already, Radar looks good but I'm with RC it sure would do a body good to have some model support. 11th hour everything going wrong direction
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So what's your thought on the models still having the precip east and this idea of the low further off shore taking over like the NAM shows?
FFC saying there is a chance after 2 pm across here to W GA today until after sunset. Maybe we can see something later given the earlier tilt.Really didn't expect to be under light radar returns this early at all. Would be nice if it'd do a number on the dewpoint, as while I've seen it be dry-ish but snow anyway before, a 20 degree difference will never cut it.
So why all the talk this morning about it going negative tilt sooner and that would increase the precip further west? Why would the models not show this? Do we just have to see when it goes negative tilt?I'll feel better in several hours once some of the convection has continued to evolve/grow upscale, certainly less confident than yesterday
So what's your thought on the models still having the precip east and this idea of the low further off shore taking over like the NAM shows?[/QUOTE
The models are still not in touch with reality. The only hiccup i see right now is the double barrel low. If the system goes negative which i already think it has then the outcome for you guys will be a whole lot more snow. I don't have a dog in the fight, i,m back here in Frosty, and Powerstroke Land we are sitting on the bench this one.
So why all the talk this morning about it going negative tilt sooner and that would increase the precip further west? Why would the models not show this? Do we just have to see when it goes negative tilt?