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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Brick Tamland said:
I get that, but do we trust the NAM if it has the low placement wrong to begin with, and if things go negative tilt sooner than the NAM shows?
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You could pick another model showing the same thing. You have a lot to choose from. I don't know if they're right, but they're all showing it, regardless of whether the low was initialized at a different location on one model.
 
It's in my opinion undeniable that it's gone negative.
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We need that low to pop in the ne gulf and ride just off shore to get much here. This one just ain’t happening for us as it’s too far offshore for anything here. The coast will get nailed.


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BHS1975 said:
We need that low to pop in the ne gulf and ride just off shore to get much here. This one just ain’t happening for us as it’s too far offshore for anything here. The coast will get nailed.


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It hasn't started to come up the coast yet.
 
Look at the NWS site and look at what counties are under an advisory and which ones aren't. It looks ridiculous.
 
Robert West said:
Look at the NWS site and look at what counties are under an advisory and which ones aren't. It looks ridiculous.
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It's the CAE way don't cha know? Lol Seriously though, they just want to make sure they have looked at everything upon them to make a sound, assertive decision.
 
Mr. Grinch said:
12z HRRR had me buying lottery tickets. 13z told me it was a bad idea
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Yeah I don't know anymore, wv looks good, appears negative already, Radar looks good but I'm with RC it sure would do a body good to have some model support. 11th hour everything going wrong direction

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Had held high hopes for this storm. The model consensus was really good, and should have been pretty telling for anyone in the Triangle area. This is a light event for the most part and now looks to be confined to the areas the models have been showing us all along (east of Triangle). IMO, the models did a fantastic job of allowing us to see what was going to take shape well beforehand.

This is a win for the models and a loss for MBY.
 
Avalanche said:
Had held high hopes for this storm. The model consensus was really good, and should have been pretty telling for anyone in the Triangle area. This is a light event for the most part and now looks to be confined to the areas the models have been showing us all along (east of Triangle). IMO, the models did a fantastic job of allowing us to see what was going to take shape well beforehand.

This is a win for the models and a loss for MBY.
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It's just getting started.
 
Looks like we should pay attention to this massive dry shaft plus backside upper level moisture showing up on WV. On the west side, it looks like there is a little gulf moisture lift, so the virga showers seem to be getting a little more moisture. Also, pay attention to its tilt and location on the coming hours. could help or screw someone.
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Really didn't expect to be under light radar returns this early at all. Would be nice if it'd do a number on the dewpoint, as while I've seen it be dry-ish but snow anyway before, a 20 degree difference will never cut it.
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I don't know anymore, wv looks good, appears negative already, Radar looks good but I'm with RC it sure would do a body good to have some model support. 11th hour everything going wrong direction

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Yeah, that's what I don't get. Everything looks positive with what is actually happening and what we see on radar, but the models don't match. Everyone is talking about the precip being further west because it goes negative tilt sooner, but the models still don't show that. Really hard to figure out.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Really didn't expect to be under light radar returns this early at all. Would be nice if it'd do a number on the dewpoint, as while I've seen it be dry-ish but snow anyway before, a 20 degree difference will never cut it.
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FFC saying there is a chance after 2 pm across here to W GA today until after sunset. Maybe we can see something later given the earlier tilt.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'll feel better in several hours once some of the convection has continued to evolve/grow upscale, certainly less confident than yesterday
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So why all the talk this morning about it going negative tilt sooner and that would increase the precip further west? Why would the models not show this? Do we just have to see when it goes negative tilt?
 
Brick Tamland said:
So what's your thought on the models still having the precip east and this idea of the low further off shore taking over like the NAM shows?[/QUOTE
The models are still not in touch with reality. The only hiccup i see right now is the double barrel low. If the system goes negative which i already think it has then the outcome for you guys will be a whole lot more snow. I don't have a dog in the fight, i,m back here in Frosty, and Powerstroke Land we are sitting on the bench this one.
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No sense in stressing over this, it will do what it does and worrying or complaining about it won't change a thing. Just sit back and see what happens because in an evolving LP like this things can change quickly
 
Brick Tamland said:
So why all the talk this morning about it going negative tilt sooner and that would increase the precip further west? Why would the models not show this? Do we just have to see when it goes negative tilt?
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Jon mentions what could be part of the reason for this. I mean as we've been saying for several days, the tilting of the wave is related in part from the interaction w/ the trailing s/w in the northern branch over the TN valley and diabatic heating, the latter is extremely uncertain because forecasting thunderstorms & deep convection is difficult even a day or two in advance, and this intense convection is going to grow quickly upscale and generate cyclonic potential vorticity that will further aid in continued convective growth. The models simply can't handle that piece of information which is vital to the forecast in central NC which is why we've seen solutions that are all over the place even this far out.
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Even though a ton of it aint reaching the ground, the radar is feeling in nicely just outside of Augusta. Hopefully it's atleast juicing up the atmosphere.
 
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