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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

whatalife said:
HAHA! KCAE is about to look stupid. If we are already negatively titled that should bode well for us in the central midlands.


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Not quite negative yet. But neutral, likely. Which leads to a quicker negative idea when the Northern Stream's wave bursts down into it, which leads to a low closer to the coast.
 
From KGSP. Definitely feeling pretty good about snow making it deep into the piedmont given this
"Otherwise, today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations remains uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor imagery shows the amplified system already acquiring a neutral tilt as it moves into western Alabama. Additional height falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear persists that an injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther inland than featured in the operational models, possibly across a good chunk of our forecat area."
 
Webberweather53 said:
From KGSP. Definitely feeling pretty good about snow making it deep into the piedmont given this
"Otherwise, today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations remains uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor imagery shows the amplified system already acquiring a neutral tilt as it moves into western Alabama. Additional height falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear persists that an injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther inland than featured in the operational models, possibly across a good chunk of our forecat area."
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Would that be the same idea for the Triangle area, too?
 
Webberweather53 said:
From KGSP. Definitely feeling pretty good about snow making it deep into the piedmont given this
"Otherwise, today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations remains uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor imagery shows the amplified system already acquiring a neutral tilt as it moves into western Alabama. Additional height falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear persists that an injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther inland than featured in the operational models, possibly across a good chunk of our forecat area."
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I beat you to that Eric. Haha. The Baroclinic Leaf has made it's presence on satellite a bit earlier tonight.
 
Shawn said:
I beat you to that Eric. Haha. The Baroclinic Leaf has made it's presence on satellite a bit earlier tonight.
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It may be radar hallucinations, but that western edge is moving on NNE atleast!
 
Shawn said:
I just asked KATL on their twitter what model they were running b/c it showed a drastic shift into the area of KCAE/Lexington with snowfall (idk about accumulation) and they said it was the HRRR. Their maps are much better than what we have in regards to sharp cutoffs.

I'm not all in for here, but I have to admit, the chance is increasing for you and I's back yard for seeing it fall, at least.
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Yeah. I agree. I am cautiously optimistic. But we’ll see.


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HRRR model has ticked back East some the last two runs... but who knows at this point. Models probably don't matter to much at this point anymore.
 
So I am noticing the tilt and moisture really starting to crank out of the Gulf especially. Looks like it's going to converge on the Eastern Midlands & Coast. (along with further inland) Ruh roh. This is going to be a hard forecast day.
 
WxSouth
59 mins ·
Batton down the hatches and hold on tight along the East Coast--This thing is about to enter full Beast Mode and is going to max out its energy all along the East Coast in rare fashion from Florida to Canada, slamming the Entire Eastern Seaboard of America, in a nearly once in a lifetime setup.

All ingredients are now coming together rapidly with tremendous energy aloft, in the warm waters and incredible barocliinic thermal boundary, with a tremendous negative tilt southern trough about to fully phase in a very unusual spot in the Southeast. The fully phased storm will bomb out as it rides north, up the entire east Coast, hugging the Coast and producing Blizzard Conditions from North Carolina to Maine as time goes by. Heavy snow and ice totals all the way to Florida and Georgia with the biggest snow and ice drop in Georgia to Florida in Decades.

The system is pulling further west, having an earlier head start than forecast in the northeast Gulf of Mexico and will rapidly intensify and expand through the eastern halves of the Carolinas and Virginia and now places more areas of the Piedmont in snow totals as well. But the blizzard portion should reside from eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia and up the Eastern Seaboard late tonight and Thursday, with up to a foot of windswept snow, and possibly thundersnow and thundersleet episodes very near the immediate east coast at times, with increasing winds.
If your area was expected to be on the western edge of the storm, pay close attention now and some forecasts have already been changed, many more are likely to be changed and includes some major metros like Columbia, Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond and DC. This is a dynamite setup and the fuse has been lit, now it's wait and see.
Following the storm, more intense cold comes well south, with below zero Wind Chills again as far south as Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas.
 
Here is the current 500mb analysis... the low should pop and start cranking in the yellow area.. which is on the Western side of any guidance.. wtf... this causing a kink in forecasts... look at the pretty angle of the trof btw!!!

okay.png
 
Models are not catching on , even the NWS offices know that. The energy dropping in the back side should cause the thing to go crazy. Will have to see how soon it taps gulf as it goes negative. But, could Go negative before it gets to FLA Panhandle
 
Pilotwx said:
Models are not catching on , even the NWS offices know that. The energy dropping in the back side should cause the thing to go crazy. Will have to see how soon it taps gulf as it goes negative. But, could Go negative before it gets to FLA Panhandle
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The gulf is already tapped based on radar.
 
If I trusted the SREF I’d go all in. Another increase for the KCAE area


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whatalife said:
If I trusted the SREF I’d go all in. Another increase for the KCAE area


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Means the NAM is about to come in, with even more. IMO, you can kinda trust the nam (maybe have to cut qpf by a 1/4 in the midlands) (coast is closer to 1/2)... its thermal structure is good and qpf hasn't been horrible around here.
 
Shawn said:
Okay KCAE friends & @whatalife , new SREF went from around 70% to 75%. Highest member has over 14 inches with a mean of 2.81 !
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The event is practically about to begin, it's maddening we have this much spread but not a huge surprise considering all the diabatic heating involved
 
Woah, someone else take a look at that WV imagery and see if you also see a negative tilt. I'm not the best at reading these satellite maps.
 
JB just tweeted about the low forming close to Cape Canaveral, FL. Looks to actually be over land to me.
DSnsLu2W0AAnyll.jpg
 
Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
Bring it on!... I at least want 1" down here near Orangeburg. LOL
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You should be golden in your area, you guys are actually under a WSW right? I'm just scared about people not having much warning just in case this does turn into a bigger deal. I've tried to warn my family and friends that this is a VERY complex forecast and situation.
 
SREF for KCAE is split between 0-2.5 inches and 3.6- 7 inches. I'm trying to ignore the lone 14 inch one skewing the mean.

Still the idea is West down here from various modeling... This can only mean good things for NC also.
 
JtSmarts said:
You should be golden in your area, you guys are actually under a WSW right? I'm just scared about people not having much warning just in case this does turn into a bigger deal. I've tried to warn my family and friends that this is a VERY complex forecast and situation.
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Yep, we are under a warning.
 
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