Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[carolinachaos]

What is considered western coastal plains in the Carolinas....From South to North. Orangeburg, Florence, Lumberton, Fayetteville, Rocky Mount?

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[BHS1975]

What is considered western coastal plains in the Carolinas....From South to North. Orangeburg, Florence, Lumberton, Fayetteville, Rocky Mount?

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Yeah


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[BHS1975]

Looking at the Jan 2000 storm the precip was right under the colder cloud tops.


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[Brett]

There's snow, but the GFS keeps it confined to the coast and far eastern coastal plain regions, what I'm arguing is even if you take the model at face value, this precip should be further inland towards the central-western coastal plain (I-95 corridor)...
View attachment 2487

Yeah it should be near Raleigh and going into SE VA by the looks

 

[Stormsfury]

500mb and vertical velocity at HR81 NAM

78hr GFS VV at 500mb (couldn't fetch 81hr)

 

[deltadog03]

500mb and vertical velocity at HR81 NAM

78hr GFS VV at 500mb (couldn't fetch 81hr)

And I might be wrong, but that tells me the low should be closer to the coast and so should qpf

 

[Brick Tamland]

Would be funny if the models are wrong again and we get a Jan 2000 repeat. I mean, it's not like the models have been that accurate with winter storms this winter so far.

 

[Webberweather53]

Look at the 850mb setup on the GFS. This is what is wrecking the moisture transport.

No doubt there's going to be intense convection offshore in a setup like this but the GFS may be overselling it here, seen it pull this crap many times in the hurricane season near the Central America monsoon gyre

 

[deltadog03]

No doubt there's going to be intense convection offshore in a setup like this but the GFS may be overselling it here, seen it pull this crap many times in the hurricane season near the Central America monsoon gyre

and in the end, that could be the biggest thing that makes us just waive as this snows over the open ocean. well rain too, lol

 

[BHS1975]

Can charter some boats


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[GeorgiaGirl]

Can charter some boats


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Yeah let's charter a SouthernWx boat and all go out on the ocean 200-300 miles away from the VA/NC coast!

 

[Stormsfury]

And I might be wrong, but that tells me the low should be closer to the coast and so should qpf

Not to mention this ...
Thermal gradient (NAM)

Thermal gradient (GGEM)

 

[RollTide18]

Dr. No should be up soon

 

[deltadog03]

Not to mention this ...
Thermal gradient (NAM)

Thermal gradient (GGEM)

I agree it should follow that baroclinic ribbon/boundary

 

[Stormdoc]

UKMET does pull precip into eastern Carolinas this run, much better than 0Z

 

[deltadog03]

The doc is on the stage and will be performing shortly. Does he sing us to sleep or wake up the masses??

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

No kidding, this ain't bad at all!

Bruh maybe I should stop reading what that other place says. I do wonder if some of that precip westward is from something else though.

 

[RollTide18]

Bruh maybe I should stop reading what that other place says. I do wonder if some of that precip westward is from something else though.

Once the rain from today is of the way then you should get a better picture

 

[ForsythSnow]

Bruh maybe I should stop reading what that other place says. I do wonder if some of that precip westward is from something else though.

You won't see that moisture up GA after today guaranteed. I really think that is from the virga we are getting today.

 

[carolinachaos]

Not to mention this ...
Thermal gradient (NAM)

Thermal gradient (GGEM)

If the low was to follow that gradient, wouldn't that introduce warmer air into the system allowing more mixing, if this system were to be that close?

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