• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Stormsfury said:
GFS absolutely crapped the SFC low placement again though.

Hr78 IR Sat.
gfs_ir_us_14.png

Click to expand...

Definitely very strange to see no precipitation underneath those deep Cb clouds over the Carolinas on the GFS, yet the low-topped convection over the Atlantic is spitting out heavy precip. Even if you account for differences in brightness temperature due to the cooler temps over the adjacent continental landmass that still doesnt look right
 
Just looking at H5 maps I would think there should be a stripe of precip from LA, southern MS southern AL, southern GA and into the Carolinas *need a bit better phase quicker* *its trending that way* and I think it could trend that way.
 
Stormsfury said:
GFS absolutely crapped the SFC low placement again though.

Hr78 IR Sat.
gfs_ir_us_14.png

Click to expand...
I agree 100% IMHO they are all, but trending better. I think there couild be a low pop in the GOM and then ride over FL to the gulf stream. Thats where the best baroclinic ribbon is and where we should see the best height falls too
 
Webberweather53 said:
Definitely very strange to see no precipitation underneath those deep Cb clouds over the Carolinas on the GFS, yet the low-topped convection over the Atlantic is spitting out heavy precip. Even if you account for differences in brightness temperature due to the cooler temps over the adjacent continental landmass that still doesnt look right
Click to expand...
So over those blobs you all are talking about, from what is reflecting on the model output, what you all are saying is that it would seem more precip should be getting thrown back into the Carolina's? Just trying to learn a little here.
 
deltadog03 said:
Just looking at H5 maps I would think there should be a stripe of precip from LA, southern MS southern AL, southern GA and into the Carolinas *need a bit better phase quicker* *its trending that way* and I think it could trend that way.
Click to expand...

Yeah looking at the IR, RH, and clouds, you would think the models would be spitting some snow showes out but yet it's not.
 
There's a butload of mid-upper level moisture over the Carolinas (even in the DGZ) in spite of no precipitation being observed at the ground on this GFS run.
gfs_isen300K_seus_14.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
For anyone around during hurricane season, they would know that the GFS overdoes low pressure strength. Also, it just does it in general. Knock off about 30 mb and it's reasonable.
Click to expand...

I'd say it's bogus but it's not the only model that's shown something crazy with it.
 
Wasn’t it the ocean convection that screwed up the models low pressure and precipitation placement for The Crusher? I know, probably wishcasting here
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's a butload of mid-upper level moisture over the Carolinas (even in the DGZ) in spite of no precipitation being observed at the ground on this GFS run.
View attachment 2484
Click to expand...
How far NW could that moisture make it? Could all of SC and even most of central GA see something with that? I still don't expect anything, just wondering.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top