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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Jon said:
Eventually if the LP hugs the OBX there’s got to be moisture return west. It’s not a one sided low. Models are having difficulty overdoing the dry air, it’s just a matter of how wrong or right they are. If it doesn’t make sense logically that should jump off the page to you - but many take model charts verbatim and roll with it. Numerical prediction is far from perfect and we may learn the hard way (in a good way)


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If a low of this intensity is tracking over Hatteras I wouldn't worry about precip, I'd be more concerned about IP even as far west as the Triangle... In a comparable event in Jan 1940, a 978 hPa bomb went over Hatteras, the predominant precip type ended up being sleet in Raleigh due to extremely intense mid level WAA, NW Wake towards the airport stayed all snow apparently receiving double what was observed just 10-15 miles southeast of there over downtown
 
Jon said:
Eventually if the LP hugs the OBX there’s got to be moisture return west. It’s not a one sided low. Models are having difficulty overdoing the dry air, it’s just a matter of how wrong or right they are. If it doesn’t make sense logically that should jump off the page to you - but many take model charts verbatim and roll with it. Numerical prediction is far from perfect and we may learn the hard way (in a good way)


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We can bank on the mid level warm nose being more intense than forecast which also means the precipitation will extend further NW over the piedmont than a NWP model is advertising even if it got the low track down to a T
 
Webberweather53 said:
If a low of this intensity is tracking over Hatteras I wouldn't worry about precip, I'd be more concerned about IP even as far west as the Triangle... In a comparable event in Jan 1940, a 978 hPa bomb went over Hatteras, the predominant precip type ended up being sleet in Raleigh due to extremely intense mid level WAA, NW Wake towards the airport stayed all snow apparently receiving double what was observed just 10-15 miles southeast of there over downtown
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Hell, I’ll take the chance on some sleet if it means getting some moisture west. Ha! I’m ~5 mins from RDU so I’ll take what I can get.
 
Jon said:
Hell, I’ll take the chance on some sleet if it means getting some moisture west. Ha! I’m ~5 mins from RDU so I’ll take what I can get.
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Here's the SLP & 1000-500 thickness map for the January 1940 event from ERA-20C... Very comparable wrt low pressure track and intensity, of course the heaviest axis of snow actually ended up being centered over Greensboro.
6z January 24 1940 MSLP & Thicknesses.jpg
ecmwf_mslp_east3_6.png
 
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image.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The globals are definitely adjusting NW, but I don't think they're ever gonna truly see this one coming for those west of I-95 in NC...
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Just peeked at a super res HRRR map on wxbell.. and yeah, precip still moving west albeit slowly down here vs the last and the last etc.

Hey, maybe mby will eek out a flurry!
 
Shawn said:
Hey Eric, virga or not, looks like precip shield out west starting to set up like that 2000 storm!
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Yeah I'm sticking to my guns and the actual dynamics in play here plus historical precedence wrt previous winter storms in NC and how poorly the models handled them (esp the mid-level WAA and extent of the precip NW of the low center), and this event will probably bust wetter and warmer in general vs the globals (obviously that could mean colder in those w/ more precip) as we've seen time and time again the past several years. My forecast is definitely out there against others but you don't have to look very far back to see how I've done against reality. Just as recently as Dec 2017, even when many of the models were plastering RDU & Chapel Hill a few days out, I adjusted everything NW and focused the heaviest snows in the highest elevations of the mountains... Sure, you could argue that maybe my forecast wasn't that great, but the NWS and most others at the time had a bullseye over the Triad or just east of there and we all know how that panned out in the end
December 8-9 2017 Snowfall Forecast Map.png

Reality...
December 8-9 2017 NC snow Map.png
 
BIG FROSTY said:
This is looking more and more interesting for some further west in NC! I know I'm not in the game but some folks not to far to my east may be?
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Can't entirely rule out some isolated-scattered snow showers in the mountains and foothills underneath this very intense upper level trough & concomitant vort max thanks in large part to upslope flow, however I wouldn't consider this likely atm...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Can't entirely rule out some isolated-scattered snow showers in the mountains and foothills underneath this very intense upper level trough & concomitant vort max thanks in large part to upslope flow, however I wouldn't consider this likely atm...
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For eastern South Carolina could we see heavy snow with possible thunder since it will be intensifying?
 
I am going to say this now. Although I have been pessimistic, at best about this event.. the modeling jumping the Low center all around (not figuring out where to place it via the extra vorticity in the SE) and the convection scares me. This can bust in either direction, but the way the HRRR looks, even wonky and differing on convection each hour, I'd say the convection moisture robbery may be over done.

The Euro literally came in on top of @Stormsfury with a substantial increase in moisture. Forecast breaking, actually. Worries me!

Virga, sure. But still wasn't modeled well on simulated radar reflectivity modeling:

wrad_se.gif
 
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Shawn said:
I am going to say this now. Although I have been pessimistic, at best about this event.. the modeling jumping the Low center all around (not figuring out where to place it via the extra vorticity in the SE) and the convection scares me. This can bust in either direction, but the way the HRRR looks, even wonky and differing on convection each hour, I'd say the convection moisture robbery may be over done.

The Euro literally came in on top of @Stormsfury with a substantial increase in moisture. Forecast breaking, actually. Worries me!

Virga, sure. But still wasn't modeled well on simulated radar reflectivity modeling:

wrad_se.gif
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Yep. I've been noticing that as well Shawn. Not sure how that will affect things later, but it's interesting to say the least. Esp. with none of the models picking up on it as is. We can only hope for a similar situation as Jan. 2000.
 
Posting this here, like Eric had posted before, just for reference with the above image. NOT SAYING THIS WILL HAPPEN.

nowrad.20000124.06z.png
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
For eastern South Carolina could we see heavy snow with possible thunder since it will be intensifying?
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Absolutely, it's just dependent on how far west the precipitation shield gets into eastern SC and how quickly the low develops there but I'd say that's pretty likely to be observed in the backend deformation band on the NW side
 
Maybe a virga storm, but hm. 06z NAM:

virga01.png



virga02.png


virga03.png
 
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