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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Another problem we have to contend with is that there is so much energy flying around. We have to bundle that better
 
The UKMET should give us a better idea if all of the models are going in a positive direction...
 
UKMET is a miss again. Would be nice if we could get something similar to the Carolina Crusher 2000. Where the models couldn't really great handle on things and surprised us in a good way.
 
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And this could be all for not except the immediate coastlines. It would be nice for them, so not mad if that's the case.
 
1300m said:
I believe the mid and surface reflections are off due to convective feedback which is limiting the westward extension of mid and low level moisture transport. This same thing happened many years ago where guidance was dry until 24 hours out and I wrote a paper on it in undergrad. It was the 12/26/2004 storm.

Edit: This would mainly still be an issue over the eastern Carolinas.
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Would be interesting if we see a sudden shield of moisture shoot inland through a lot of GA and all of SC and most of NC. I'm sure that many members would be happy if the mid and surface levels end up being moist.
 
I think the bigger issue is we are not being able to bundle the energy together very well. Too much over Western ATL
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, lots of moisture in the DGZ here, but dry below it.
gfs_2017123112_fh78_sounding_34.27_N_84.08_W.png
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Something about this doesn't seem right here. If you look back over 12 hours before that frame there is a but load of moisture plowing into N Ga as far North as Knoxville TN. So u would think over a 12 hour period the atmosphere would have plenty of time to moisten up and there would be snow at least up to Atlanta. Maybe I'm wish casting here.
 
Apparently the UK was not only a miss, it was a bad miss like 00z. Eh, if the GEFS and Euro continue the good maybe it's out to lunch.
 
This was posted on american, but I thought it was a nice animation showing the trend in the GFS IR brightness temps w/ time. These are very cold cloud tops over central-eastern NC for there not to be significant snowfall at least back to the I-95 corridor. As 1300m mentioned, it's very possible the GFS's convective feedback is limiting low-level moisture transport inland across North & South Carolina and may be why we see such a disconnect between the surface and low-mid levels which not only have saturation or near-saturation in the DGZ, but isentropic lift to boot.
3e638865-4065-4d75-90a6-36d41a6a29d1.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
This was posted on american, but I thought it was a nice animation showing the trend in the GFS IR brightness temps w/ time. These are very cold cloud tops over central-eastern NC for there not to be significant snowfall at least back to the I-95 corridor. As 1300m mentioned, it's very possible the GFS's convective feedback is limiting low-level moisture transport inland across North & South Carolina and may be why we see such a disconnect between the surface and low-mid levels which not only have saturation or near-saturation in the DGZ, but isentropic lift to boot.
View attachment 2486
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You sure this isn't snow in there ? It's really impressive
 
Brett said:
You sure this isn't snow in there ? It's really impressive
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There's snow, but the GFS keeps it confined to the coast and far eastern coastal plain regions, what I'm arguing is even if you take the model at face value, this precip should be further inland towards the central-western coastal plain (I-95 corridor)...
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_14.png
 
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