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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Uh oh. QPF, increase into the Central Midlands on the 06z NAM (this is supposed to be what doesnt evaporate):

uhoh.png
 
3KM NAM (based off kuchera) for GA/SC.. increase west, slightly smaller amounts in parts of the east:

snku_acc.us_se.png
 
Very scary ZR for coastal sections:

zr_acc.us_se.png
 
Yes everyone. Please using MPING (free app on phone) to send reports of what you see. It helps the NWS and others immensely.
 
Shawn said:
Yes everyone. Please using MPING (free app on phone) to send reports of what you see. It helps the NWS and others immensely.
Click to expand...
Yes it does... Been looking for ground truth with the precip shield over Fla Big Bend area to I-75, I 10 corridors... No luck so far
 
Looks like the wintry mix is kicking up quickly in northern Florida. Yikes.


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Precip shield on the 3km NAM shifted east and drier for NC this run. Low level dry layer really cuts down RDU’s totals. Latest HRRR also doesn’t look very pretty, slp skirts NE away from the coast unlike the NAM which moves it NNE along the coast.
 
Also, this is a really fast moving storm. Only has Snow for Savannah from roughly 8 or so until 4 in the afternoon so about 7-8 hours of precip. The progressive nature of the storm is the only reason we won't be seeing widespread 18+ inch amounts.
 
My winds are coming out of the SW now around 5. Temp up from 21 to 24. Thick cloud cover. Come on stray flurrry! Lol!


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WOAH. What? GSP:

000
FXUS62 KGSP 030828
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations
remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier
U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly
than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor
imagery shows the amplified system already attempting to acquire a
neutral tilt as it moves into western Mississippi. Additional height
falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear is that an
injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will
deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by
the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther
inland than featured in the operational models, possible across a
good chunk of our forecat area. At any rate, we`re getting set up
for a cold day, with temps largely in the teens in most areas early
this morning, but with little opportunity for insolation today as
the mid and high clouds are already thickening up from the southwest.
 
Shawn said:
WOAH. What? GSP:

000
FXUS62 KGSP 030828
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations
remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier
U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly
than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor
imagery shows the amplified system already attempting to acquire a
neutral tilt as it moves into western Mississippi. Additional height
falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear is that an
injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will
deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by
the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther
inland than featured in the operational models, possible across a
good chunk of our forecat area. At any rate, we`re getting set up
for a cold day, with temps largely in the teens in most areas early
this morning, but with little opportunity for insolation today as
the mid and high clouds are already thickening up from the southwest.
Click to expand...

Interesting.


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Shawn said:
WOAH. What? GSP:

000
FXUS62 KGSP 030828
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations
remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier
U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly
than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor
imagery shows the amplified system already attempting to acquire a
neutral tilt as it moves into western Mississippi. Additional height
falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear is that an
injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will
deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by
the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther
inland than featured in the operational models, possible across a
good chunk of our forecat area. At any rate, we`re getting set up
for a cold day, with temps largely in the teens in most areas early
this morning, but with little opportunity for insolation today as
the mid and high clouds are already thickening up from the southwest.
Click to expand...
Yeah, GSP added chances for snow for CLT not too long ago, that's really bullish for them.
 
Shawn said:
WOAH. What? GSP:

000
FXUS62 KGSP 030828
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations
remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier
U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly
than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor
imagery shows the amplified system already attempting to acquire a
neutral tilt as it moves into western Mississippi. Additional height
falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear is that an
injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will
deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by
the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther
inland than featured in the operational models, possible across a
good chunk of our forecat area. At any rate, we`re getting set up
for a cold day, with temps largely in the teens in most areas early
this morning, but with little opportunity for insolation today as
the mid and high clouds are already thickening up from the southwest.
Click to expand...
Could that mean upstate see something out of this
 
Shawn said:
WOAH. What? GSP:

000
FXUS62 KGSP 030828
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST: Today`s snow forecast for our piedmont locations
remains highly uncertain as concern exists over the southern tier
U.S. wave sharpening up and acquiring a negative tilt more quickly
than depicted by the operational models. Currently, water vapor
imagery shows the amplified system already attempting to acquire a
neutral tilt as it moves into western Mississippi. Additional height
falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear is that an
injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will
deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by
the models. This would result in snowfall being produced farther
inland than featured in the operational models, possible across a
good chunk of our forecat area. At any rate, we`re getting set up
for a cold day, with temps largely in the teens in most areas early
this morning, but with little opportunity for insolation today as
the mid and high clouds are already thickening up from the southwest.
Click to expand...

That's interesting to say the least. I'm not sure, maybe it was Eric that alluded to this earlier as a possible scenario too. I saw the NAM and RGEM and the precip. shield expanded further NW, so maybe they aren't that far off in their thinking.
 
It means that GSP (a very good forecast office) sees something that could make the event a lot bigger for some. That's all you can really take from this.

Basically that discussion has a Jan 2000 sound to it.
 
Looking at watervapor with radar overlay, the lead wave is really sharpening quick. IDK about vs other guidance (they definitely know better than most here) ... but you can see the secondary wave is right on it's heels racing inward now.

The two pieces are very close, maybe beyond modeling from my slightly untrained eye looking at WV/Radar overlay loops.
 
Shawn said:
Looking at watervapor with radar overlay, the lead wave is really sharpening quick. IDK about vs other guidance (they definitely know better than most here) ... but you can see the secondary wave is right on it's heels racing inward now.

The two pieces are very close, maybe beyond modeling from my slightly untrained eye looking at WV/Radar overlay loops.
Click to expand...

Is this what is generating the returns on radar over AL, MS, AR and LA?


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MBell said:
Is this what is generating the returns on radar over AL, MS, AR and LA?


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Click to expand...

I would say so, yes. The lead shortwave was doing some on it's own, but looking at my virga radar over here, I see streamers trying to get even into TN now.
 
Shawn said:
I would say so, yes. The lead shortwave was doing some on it's own, but looking at my virga radar over here, I see streamers trying to get even into TN now.
Click to expand...

Yeah I saw that as well. Very interesting. I’m anxious to see what happens, those returns in AL are getting close to me. The other day these same type returns were generating flurries. We shall see.


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Shawn said:
I would say so, yes. The lead shortwave was doing some on it's own, but looking at my virga radar over here, I see streamers trying to get even into TN now.
Click to expand...
Which site of preference do you use to view WV imagery with the overlay?
 
DLI4SCwx said:
Thanks Shawn! That's what I was looking for to view it with.
Click to expand...
Yep, was typing it up when you asked that question already. I am currently getting AWIPS 2 installed again so I can hopefully get more details!
 
Shawn said:
Yep, was typing it up when you asked that question already. I am currently getting AWIPS 2 installed again so I can hopefully get more details!
Click to expand...
Wonderful. Keep us up to date please with the details. One thing for certain, whether we get nothing to something, this has been a great learning experience tracking this storm with all the knowledgeable folks on the site.
 
Not sure why KCAE is so late with their discussion when other offices have their 3-4AM ones out already.

I see what KGSP is speaking of, but its usually very rare to see them talking about snow in their area and even over to CLT when models have been East with QPF. Are they coordinating together? And what does KGSP see that makes them so bullish? Do they know something that we do not? GSP outright said the models may not be right!

Next time on, As The Trof Turns.
 
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