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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Radar looks good but nothing coming out of the clouds at ground level around here. NAM and rgem had something reaching ground but I doubt it at this point
 
Boy models did seem to miss the Low Spot a good bit just looking at current ones.... Some have it still in southern Florida probably a good 200+ miles from where it may pop
 
deltadog03 said:
Radar looks good but nothing coming out of the clouds at ground level around here. NAM and rgem had something reaching ground but I doubt it at this point
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There is ample moisture streaming in Chris. Surely, you will get precipitation out of it.
 
whatalife said:
12z NAM a miss for KCAE.


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Honestly I'm afraid it's right. Radar pretty much confirms that. Maybe there will be some flurries for sure, I thought so too around here as well, but trends don't look promising for our areas
 
12z NAM also (on 12KM) initializes the low at southern FL.....
 
Could it be we just don't know what this storm is going to do, because it defies all conventional wisdom and what we think should happen. Based on past occurrences.

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The Nam, just like every model has the dual low idea. Unfortunately, it takes the low that's closest to the coast, diminishes it and the low farther offshore takes over. Every model is showing this. It's hard to believe they can all be wrong at this stage. I guess they can, but it's getting harder to believe. It's just like those Miller Bs that reform and dry slot us. That's not exactly what's happening here (in modelland), but the effect is the same. Precip min inland as the new low takes over offshore.

I'd like to believe that the models are just clueless, but I'm starting to think they are not.
 
Shawn said:
Yep. Negative incoming. Radar = king. None of these globals or even short range matter at this point. Serious talk.
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Rain Cold said:
The Nam, just like every model has the dual low idea. Unfortunately, it takes the low that's closest to the coast, diminishes it and the low farther offshore takes over. Every model is showing this. It's hard to believe they can all be wrong at this stage. I guess they can, but it's getting harder to believe. It's just like those Miller Bs that reform and dry slot us. That's not exactly what's happening here (in modelland), but the effect is the same. Precip min inland as the new low takes over offshore.

I'd like to believe that the models are just clueless, but I'm starting to think they are not.
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ForsythSnow said:
I agree. Everything from here on out is out the door unless it fixes itself. Take what you see in the coming hours and see what happens.
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Like they said, if they can't get the placement of the low right to begin with, why would we believe the rest of the runs?
 
Maybe it's just me, but when GSP gets bullish in their discussion, I will take it serious versus others calling people like Eric out for his early call map when they were too much a b* to release one to begin with.
 
Well it's pretty obvious, all the short range models are going back East. Pretty terrible handling by all models with this thing.. Makes everyone look bad. Wow.
 
Shawn said:
Maybe it's just me, but when GSP gets bullish in their discussion, I will take it serious versus others calling people like Eric out for his early call map when they were too much a b* to release one to begin with.
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I agree with you Shawn, when GSP gets bullish, it's telling to say the least, being as conservative as they are generally.
 
Robert West said:
Well it's pretty obvious, all the short range models are going back East. Pretty terrible handling by all models with this thing.. Makes everyone look bad. Wow.
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"modeling".
 
This thread goes from being super jacked up to super depressing in about a 30 minute time frame. man oh man...
 
But yall are right, personally, I'm done with the models. Radar watching from here on out.
 
Robert West said:
This thread goes from being super jacked up to super depressing in about a 30 minute time frame. man oh man...
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It's crazy. An hour ago everything pointed to the precip being further west because the system was going negative tilt sooner. But the models still show the precip being further east, but the placement of the low doesn't match up with where it actually is. Hard to know what will really happen.
 
NWS is driving me to drink, I believe I need to watch the sky, went from 30% to 20% for today now 30% today and 20% tonight. If anyone can give me a clue for this area it would be great. Please remove if I am in the wrong area. Thank you
 
Brick Tamland said:
It's crazy. An hour ago everything pointed to the precip being further west because the system was going negative tilt sooner. But the models still show the precip being further east, but the placement of the low doesn't match up with where it actually is. Hard to know what will really happen.
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Rain Cold said:
The Nam, just like every model has the dual low idea. Unfortunately, it takes the low that's closest to the coast, diminishes it and the low farther offshore takes over. Every model is showing this. It's hard to believe they can all be wrong at this stage. I guess they can, but it's getting harder to believe. It's just like those Miller Bs that reform and dry slot us. That's not exactly what's happening here (in modelland), but the effect is the same. Precip min inland as the new low takes over offshore.

I'd like to believe that the models are just clueless, but I'm starting to think they are not.
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I get that, but do we trust the NAM if it has the low placement wrong to begin with, and if things go negative tilt sooner than the NAM shows?
 
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