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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Fwiw RGEM better than NAM but still decrease in precip
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HRRR worse by the hour for RDU. 12Z had 10 hours of snow. 13z had 8. 14z has like 2, maybe. Anyone wanna take a guess at what the 15z will show?
 
well they did it, NWS has drove me to drink for sure

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Columbia SC 957 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...Snow expected in the Midlands and CSRA... .A developing low pressure system off the Georgia coast this morning will pull some moisture from the Atlantic Ocean over the cold air in place across the area, leading to some snowfall this afternoon and this evening. The heaviest snow is expected across the far eastern Midlands, where winter storm warning are in effect for 2 or more inches of snow accumulation expected. GAZ064-065-SCZ030-032300- /O.EXB.KCAE.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180104T0000Z/ Columbia-Richmond-Aiken- Including the cities of Martinez, Evans, Hephzibah, Aiken, and North Augusta 957 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...light snow expected this afternoon. Accumulations of less up to 1 inch are expected, mainly in southern and eastern sections. * WHERE...In South Carolina, Aiken County. In Georgia, Columbia and Richmond Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...While heavy snow is not expected, light snow falling on cold roads will cause some difficulty in travel this afternoon. The best chance for seeing snow that might stick to roads will be along and south of Interstate 20. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution when traveling, especially in open areas. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. $$
 
Brick Tamland said:
That sucks. I don't get it. All this talk about the precip being further west this morning, but everything looks to be the exact opposite. Everything is contradicting itself.
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More like everyone is contradicting themselves. We all have been riding the back of these models for the longest and when they shift, even at the last second, then we shift. Some people want to say that they don't do that, we all do it. But at this point, we just watch the radar. I see this large of a group saying the new NAM is wrong then you got this group over here saying it's right and leaving before they get to the 2nd quarter.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Jon mentions what could be part of the reason for this. I mean as we've been saying for several days, the tilting of the wave is related in part from the interaction w/ the trailing s/w in the northern branch over the TN valley and diabatic heating, the latter is extremely uncertain because forecasting thunderstorms & deep convection is difficult even a day or two in advance, and this intense convection is going to grow quickly upscale and generate cyclonic potential vorticity that will further aid in continued convective growth. The models simply can't handle that piece of information which is vital to the forecast in central NC which is why we've seen solutions that are all over the place even this far out.
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And sounds like that's where we want it to go negative at for more snow here.
 
tonysc said:
Hmm, GSP now calling for occasional flurries after 2pm in Greenville, SC.
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Radar is looking like it's possible!
28/3 right now!
 
Boy MET Janice Dean on FBN would have made a lot of you in southern Ga. and SC happy just now. She said some places in southern Georgia and SC could see snowfall totals they've never seen in recorded history. Sounds as though it could be very Feb. 1973-ish to me. Good luck guys, most people don't see snowfall like that in their whole lives in this area.
 
Brick Tamland said:
That sucks. I don't get it. All this talk about the precip being further west this morning, but everything looks to be the exact opposite. Everything is contradicting itself.
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Looks like a situation where it's winding up over S GA, gives CAE and CHS decent precip, then rotates N and E and lulls RAH, then bombs near Outerbanks
 
CAE looking solid on radar! Could easily see them getting 1-2", especially S and E of city
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is literally stupid, the GFS shifts way west this run and other high res models like the NAM (which may have poorly initialized) go east. lmao
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Yep just saw this actually gives wake co accumulating snow..... this is insanity man

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BHS1975 said:
It’s crazy to think how little we still don’t understand about the weather.


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If there's one thing we really don't understand about the weather more than anything else it's cloud microphysics and the plethora of second and third order non-linear interactions between clouds, radiation, and other clouds (& future clouds), and their responses to external stimuli... This only gets amplified when you're dealing with deep Cb convection
 
It's definitely negative tilt and looks like pressure falls are right along the coast... now let's see if this can organize into one slp right along those lines
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metwannabe said:
Yep just saw this actually gives wake co accumulating snow..... this is insanity man

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Seems like a typical system to me. Globals jump NW at the last minute. The short range models look terrible. The radar is wetter, drier, nw, sw, east, west. Good times
 
Radar looks weak to the south. There was a solid wall of green with tons of yellow banding to the south as the Crusher moved in.


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BHS1975 said:
Radar looks weak to the south. There was a solid wall of green with tons of yellow banding to the south as the Crusher moved in.


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Yep, there was a healthy mesoscale convective vortex that went over Macon GA in that event which argued for more precipitation much further west than this case and the convection was more mature than what we're currently seeing over eastern GA. Small details like this are hard to predict more than a day or two in advance, but it doesn't mean snow can't make it back to RDU
 
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