Fwiw RGEM better than NAM but still decrease in precip
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There goes CAE
He meant we are under a Winter Weather Advisory now.Meaning?
That sucks. I don't get it. All this talk about the precip being further west this morning, but everything looks to be the exact opposite. Everything is contradicting itself.Huffman's final map....![]()
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More like everyone is contradicting themselves. We all have been riding the back of these models for the longest and when they shift, even at the last second, then we shift. Some people want to say that they don't do that, we all do it. But at this point, we just watch the radar. I see this large of a group saying the new NAM is wrong then you got this group over here saying it's right and leaving before they get to the 2nd quarter.That sucks. I don't get it. All this talk about the precip being further west this morning, but everything looks to be the exact opposite. Everything is contradicting itself.
Hmm, GSP now calling for occasional flurries after 2pm in Greenville, SC.
And sounds like that's where we want it to go negative at for more snow here.Jon mentions what could be part of the reason for this. I mean as we've been saying for several days, the tilting of the wave is related in part from the interaction w/ the trailing s/w in the northern branch over the TN valley and diabatic heating, the latter is extremely uncertain because forecasting thunderstorms & deep convection is difficult even a day or two in advance, and this intense convection is going to grow quickly upscale and generate cyclonic potential vorticity that will further aid in continued convective growth. The models simply can't handle that piece of information which is vital to the forecast in central NC which is why we've seen solutions that are all over the place even this far out.
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The virga building up to the west should eventually make it to the ground, so it would likely do so by then. Have to have hours of virga.FFC did the same here for me after 2pm *scratches head*
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Radar is looking like it's possible!Hmm, GSP now calling for occasional flurries after 2pm in Greenville, SC.
Really? wow.The RPM model on wltx facebook livestream showed 2.5 inches for Columbia.
Looks like a situation where it's winding up over S GA, gives CAE and CHS decent precip, then rotates N and E and lulls RAH, then bombs near OuterbanksThat sucks. I don't get it. All this talk about the precip being further west this morning, but everything looks to be the exact opposite. Everything is contradicting itself.
Ton of that aint reaching the ground. Does look good on radar though.CAE looking solid on radar! Could easily see them getting 1-2", especially S and E of city
Yep just saw this actually gives wake co accumulating snow..... this is insanity manThis is literally stupid, the GFS shifts way west this run and other high res models like the NAM (which may have poorly initialized) go east. lmao
This is literally stupid, the GFS shifts way west this run and other high res models like the NAM (which may have poorly initialized) go east. lmao
It’s crazy to think how little we still don’t understand about the weather.
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Seems like a typical system to me. Globals jump NW at the last minute. The short range models look terrible. The radar is wetter, drier, nw, sw, east, west. Good timesYep just saw this actually gives wake co accumulating snow..... this is insanity man
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Talk about GFS playing catch up...
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I find it very difficult to not get excited about 1-2 for our areaNice! If we only had a few more runs left before game time, we'd have a nice snowstorm!
Let me help you out. Check out the 15z HRRRRRRRRRRR.I find it very difficult to not get excited about 1-2 for our area
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It’s crazy to think how little we still don’t understand about the weather.
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Yep, there was a healthy mesoscale convective vortex that went over Macon GA in that event which argued for more precipitation much further west than this case and the convection was more mature than what we're currently seeing over eastern GA. Small details like this are hard to predict more than a day or two in advance, but it doesn't mean snow can't make it back to RDURadar looks weak to the south. There was a solid wall of green with tons of yellow banding to the south as the Crusher moved in.
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Hope that means the precip is incoming.Beautiful baroclinic leaf on GOES 16 over eastern GA, classic precursor to a forthcoming instant occlusion and explosive cyclogenesis/intensification
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Meh we shall see. Well the rap sucks tooLet me help you out. Check out the 15z HRRRRRRRRRRR.![]()