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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Robert West said:
Columbia taking the shaft real hard with this one. Chalk it up as another disappointment. Either dry air, to warm, warm nose. Always something.
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It's a disappointment, as seeing folks further east, south, and southeast get in on the snow while we sit in a virga storm.

It's also cool to see several folks who rarely see it get in on the "fun." Unfortunately, it's not gonna work out for our area.

Thankfully, I'm no longer emotionally invested in this stuff any longer, and just move on. It's always better to have it in your backyard. But if you really wanna see it, then head to the Lower Midlands, Pee Dee, Grand Strand or Lowcountry.
 
Looks like some good convective activity along/off the GA and SC coasts now.
 
Hilton Head:
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Our observers out at GSO released a special 18z sounding today to assist in the forecasting process. It illustrates nicely why the snow that is showing up on our radar isn't quite making it to the surface. A rather thick layer of dry air remains at the mid to low levels! #NCwx


 
Brick Tamland said:
Can't win here. I don't think we have a good idea what we need to get snow here anymore. It seems when we do lately it's usually a last minute surprise, like with the Christmas 2010 storm.

When the models do show a huge storm, the setup says no and the models end up being wrong. When we have a great setup, the models say no and end up being right.
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Frustrating isn't is Brick?
 
Mr. Grinch said:
NW trend....NW trend it's our friend.... That NW trend
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I swear man trying it's best to get .5 qpf back to me, it continues to show it pivot which holds precip over me just a little longer... just don't know if I trust it lol
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Webberweather53 said:
Only 25-30 more miles to go NW and Raleigh will be inside the 3-5" that's over central Johnston County on the HRRR. Gonna be close
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Umm weenie mby question but can you post that at the end of its run? Thanks

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Listen... I don't want to be the guy who re-hypes this thing up.... but 2 hours ago, Johnston Co (JoCo for my folk around here) had .25-5in of snow. This latest HRRR trend has them in 4-5in -- THAT IS MOVEMENT PEOPLE!
 
metwannabe said:
Umm weenie mby question but can you post that at the end of its run? Thanks

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Yep! Figure this is 10:1 and w/ temps in the mid 20s, you can jack these numbers up by 30-50%. HRRR is really showing 5-6" in your neck of the woods and the storm isn't over yet by hr 15...
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Webberweather53 said:
Exactly... We are right on the cusp, if we get into the meat of the storm it will be by the skin of our teeth...
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Webb, you see anything about the organization/trends of this system that would lead you to believe further westward adjustments (perhaps significant) would be possible?
 
Rain Cold said:
Webb, you see anything about the organization/trends of this system that would lead you to believe further westward adjustments (perhaps significant) would be possible?
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Yeah, the HRRR is consistently overzealous w/ the convection well offshore as of late which is why our low center has come further NW in recent runs and the convection that was evident earlier just east of GA/FL has waned and become more diffuse vs its forecast which helps w/ moisture transport further northwest.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, the HRRR is consistently overzealous w/ the convection well offshore as of late which is why our low center has come further NW in recent runs and the convection that was evident earlier just east of GA/FL has waned and become more diffuse vs its forecast which helps w/ moisture transport further northwest.
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Thanks. You mentioned instant occlusion earlier and I wanted to ask, but things were kind of hectic then. When an instant occlusion takes place, does the system have more of a tendency to maintain a consolidated look and strengthen rapidly from there? The reason I ask, is because the models were showing all of these multi-low scenarios. That is not what I would expect to see with an instant occlusion scenario. Of course, that may be just because I am wrong in thinking that.
 
Radar looking good in SE part of NC also, slowly creeping NW

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And as expected the low dew points/dry air won out from CAE and especially West from there. This is what I talked about yesterday, that some ignored and said it was overdone.

I saw a total of a flizzard in Lexington.
 
Shawn said:
And as expected the low dew points/dry air wont out from CAE and especially West from there. This is what I talked about yesterday, that some ignored and said it was overdone.

I saw a total of a flizzard in Lexington.
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Bummer Shawn...I'd much rather know I'm not getting any snow then have it so close or even showing on the radar only to see nada bc of the dry air.
 
Shawn said:
And as expected the low dew points/dry air wont out from CAE and especially West from there. This is what I talked about yesterday, that some ignored and said it was overdone.

I saw a total of a flizzard in Lexington.
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Yep, the dew point argument is indeed valid. Let's remember that next time we have a flizzard chance. Saw absolutely nothing here and am not bothered by it. Had my good snow for the winter already, and looks like we may see ice soon.
 
Flo said:
WIS still calling for 2 inches in Columbia. Fail!
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For the Eastern sections, not out of the question. But CAE/West Columbia, West - no way no way.
 
SimeonNC said:
I think it's pretty early to call this a bust imo.
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Wasn't supposed to be much of anything this far West in SC anyway. Who knows about NC, you guys handle those forecasts better than I could. I can say the RAP radar on my end earlier didn't look promising.
 
Like I said earlier, you really need to be somewhat close with dewpoints to see light snow. Like 10 degree difference, maybe 15 max. 20+ is too much though and it's enough to where even if you have greens over you, you're going to see next to nothing fall at all.
 
Rain Cold said:
Thanks. You mentioned instant occlusion earlier and I wanted to ask, but things were kind of hectic then. When an instant occlusion takes place, does the system have more of a tendency to maintain a consolidated look and strengthen rapidly from there? The reason I ask, is because the models were showing all of these multi-low scenarios. That is not what I would expect to see with an instant occlusion scenario. Of course, that may be just because I am wrong in thinking that.
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Yes, the system strengthens rapidly because in an instant occlusion process at the large-scale a shortwave is rotating within the base of an upper level trough and the incipient disturbance catches up w/ a residual arctic frontal boundary and effectively strengthens the temperature (baroclinicity) and vorticity advection over it. Essentially what this looks like on satellite is you'll see (as we saw this morning) a baroclinic leaf cloud structure develop to the west of an elongated moderate-deep cloud mass and as time progresses, this will overrun this cloud mass associated with the arctic front and it'll eventually create a classic comma head structure to the storm that's often associated w/ stereotypical monster extratropical cyclones
 
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