Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

[RBR71]

Where is rain cold? Hrrrrrrrr trying to bring precip back west, baby steps

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[Webberweather53]

Is the low still riding up the coast?

Even though there's some attenuation and beam filling wrt precipitation further offshore, against the RAP analysis (as also confirmed by satellite) this mass of convection along the SC/GA coast is further west than forecast (even at 0 hours for the rap)... The pressures are also lower to the west below 1008 hPa in the analysis closer to the Gulf stream east of Jacksonville while the RAP maintained 1010 hPa at best and held the lowest MSLP over the northern Bahamas...

Current mesoanalysis



RAP forecast

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The people saying this is 155 pages of nothing are stupid. This is going to be a HISTORIC storm for areas in the southeast. Also in these 155 pages, ALOT of people gained a lot of knowledge. Tons of information in here for future reference! A once in 50 year storm, and y’all want to call it a waste, SMDH

 

[Brick Tamland]

Fixing to go hard Right Brick. Thats the problem unfortunately

Problem is it has a NE push to it and the northern most extent is mostly virga

Is that based on what the models show?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Is that based on what the models show?

If you watch the radar loop you can already see it happening

 

[Rain Cold]

Where is rain cold? Hrrrrrrrr trying to bring precip back west, baby steps

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Oh I'm here. I know this trick. I've seen the HRRRRRR do this a lot. It ticks back and gives everyone some false hope. Then, the next run is hard right. If it snows just a little, I'll consider it a win at this point. At least it's consolidating the low a bit more. Would be nice to see that trend continue.

 

[ColaSnow]

The people saying this is 155 pages of nothing are stupid. This is going to be a HISTORIC storm for areas in the southeast. Also in these 155 pages, ALOT of people gained a lot of knowledge. Tons of information in here for future reference! A once in 50 year storm, and y’all want to call it a waste, SMDH

I also thought that was out of line, per the ton of info in this thread. Not to mention, for the folks who are getting wintry weather in rare places.

Whoever said it is likely on the outside looking in.

 

[packfan98]

 

[Cary_Snow95]

If we could just get this lp to get it's act together faster we would have a chance

 

[Brett]

Temp here is 36 dew point is 18 it's getting moist

 

[packfan98]

crankyweatherguy‏ @crankywxguy 13s13 seconds ago
Thermal gradient in the low levels is impressive and will likely continue to constrict leading to intense frontogensis and high precip rates. SC-NC snowfall could very well exceed even the higher forecasts as hourly rates should trend very high. THIS will be a evolution chase.

 

[Brick Tamland]

crankyweatherguy‏ @crankywxguy 13s13 seconds ago
Thermal gradient in the low levels is impressive and will likely continue to constrict leading to intense frontogensis and high precip rates. SC-NC snowfall could very well exceed even the higher forecasts as hourly rates should trend very high. THIS will be a evolution chase.

Wonder what areas of NC he is talking about.

 

[packfan98]

Wonder what areas of NC he is talking about.

My guess is wherever the axis of heaviest snows are. He seems to be knowledgeable, but his profile says he's in the Northeast.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Wonder what areas of NC he is talking about.

Near the coast. He's referring to the thermal gradient and you can see it's where the red and blue lines meet along the coast

 

[deltadog03]

Me too. Going to have to go back and study this one. It just appears there are too many dynamics at play here at the sub-synoptic scale level that didn't work out for us. At this point, I'm doubtful of any accumulation above a dusting west of I-95. Maybe I can be 2-2 in the wrong category, I'd take it at this point to just see some dang snow!

Ya this one is a wtf system for sure

 

[Tarheel1]

Wonder what areas of NC he is talking about.

Ocean Isle

 

[RBR71]

Lmao... Euro comes west fwiw

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[ColaSnow]

He has some good info within the last ten minutes on his page....

https://mobile.twitter.com/crankywxguy

 

[Rain Cold]

New HRRRRR still trying. Weenie!

 

[packfan98]

New HRRRRR still trying. Weenie!

Post it!

 

[RDUHeatIsland]

Last 3 HRRR runs have shifted the slp 100 miles west but the precip shield hasn't moved an inch.

 

[BHS1975]

Post it!

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[Rain Cold]

Post it!

I can't post images on here.

 

[BHS1975]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...ion=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018010317&fh=1


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[Brick Tamland]

Last 3 HRRR runs have shifted the slp 100 miles west but the precip shield hasn't moved an inch.

Anyone know how this could happen?

 

[Rain Cold]

The low looks a lot more consolidated (and slower and farther west) than it did earlier in the day. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE be a trend for once!

 

[Brick Tamland]

Radar showing precip into Wake County.

 

[Webberweather53]

Radar showing precip into Wake County.

Probably not reaching the ground yet, virga looks to have gotten down to about 4000 feet or so. We're getting there

 

[SD]

Last 4 runs

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[Rain Cold]

Probably not reaching the ground yet, virga looks to have gotten down to about 4000 feet or so. We're getting there

It's impressive just looking at the precip shield on radar (all the virga). If it's not going to snow, at least it looks expansive and pretty! I'm starting to get encouraged that we see some flakes here. I hope we see some last minute trends west with the SLP and some consolidation, rather than the dual low/multi low junk.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Last 4 runs

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We can hope that the trend to a consolidated lp is real. It's our only chance here in Wake

 

[Brick Tamland]

Last 4 runs

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Looks further west, into Orange County.

 

[Webberweather53]

Last 4 runs

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Yeah, I noticed that earlier in the run the intensity of the precipitation offshore coastal GA is waning as verification nears, that likely has a lot to do w/ it. The convection stays less intense offshore so does the low center there and it gives a better shot for areas west of I-95 and increases the moisture transport back across the coastal plain and piedmont... One can certainly hope we keep this up

 

[Pilotwx]

As the low starts to pivot and come north, it will throw some moisture back west. How far is the ?,

 

[Spurs up]

snow showing on radar right over CAE it's just to dry

 

[Mitch West]

Columbia taking the shaft real hard with this one. Chalk it up as another disappointment. Either dry air, to warm, warm nose. Always something.

 

[NCSNOW]

GO TIME: Can we cover the mulch?

 

[Brick Tamland]

That's a lot of precip in SC that's going to have to go due east to miss us. It's already as far west as Charlotte.

 

[Flo]

Kids got early release in Columbia for Virga smh

 

[noda-wx]

The vast majority is virga. wundergroung has my current conditions as snow, however ground truth is bone dry