I have a feeling the radar is going to be painful to watch tonight...
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
SnowNotHappen
Member
All I want is 1" LOL. I think I may get that today.
I wonder if there is any scenario left on the table where this thing surprises to the upside here? I'm not seeing any developments currently that would argue for that. I guess we have to hope that the low somehow bombs out close to the coast. I guess that's all we have.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I just can't believe we have a low coming up the coast and can't get snow here. What about all the talk this morning about the precip being more west due to it going negative tilt sooner? What happened with that?
Where did you see it, they haven't updated their afd
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Jack Roney
Member
Models think its too dry for the low to produce a healthy flow of atlantic moisture. It would be fun to have access to a model where a human could edit the variables. ie. "what if Raleigh's Td was 25 right meow and not 7"
This thread had me hyped up first thing this morning, now I'm down. Honestly, I hope we get a little snow, but i'm about ready for this storm to be over with.. This has been exhausting.
packfan98
Moderator
BHS1975
Member
Radar filling in to the south a bit
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Paraphrase "east, east, nope, sorry, coastal plain"
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,376
- Reaction score
- 3,613
Yes, it's unfornate that to get blockbuster snowstorms, you need borderline temps not only at the surface, but in the upper atmosphere as well. It's simply difficult to get much when your 850s are -8C. You want to be around -3C or so to get good snows.
As Web alluded to, RAL DP just dropped 10f in 30 mins and LP doesn't look to bomb out til just off the OBX if we're lucky. Gonna be tough but I can't completely write off a few scattered flurries in the Triangle
I just saw their video they shared on Twitter, gotta love how they say the GFS has been rock solid with this system
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Welcome to the board! Good to see another Florida poster here! I would expect maybe a few flakes up in Boone and bitter cold.
I'm really not disappointed in the radar to the south. Weak echoes? Sure but it's not like it's emptyI just saw their video they shared on Twitter, gotta love how they say the GFS has been rock solid with this system
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I just saw their video they shared on Twitter, gotta love how they say the GFS has been rock solid with this system
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Guess we're supposed to forget all the times it's shown a big winter storm here only to be wrong.
Thank you. We are thin blooded floridians, and negative temps after wind chill are a new experience. We will share the conditions in NW North Carolina. Thanks
marino13882
Member
It feels like Raleigh has just not been in the best spot for storms over the past couple of years. I feel we will get a big one soon enough though.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Can't win here. I don't think we have a good idea what we need to get snow here anymore. It seems when we do lately it's usually a last minute surprise, like with the Christmas 2010 storm.
When the models do show a huge storm, the setup says no and the models end up being wrong. When we have a great setup, the models say no and end up being right.
When the models do show a huge storm, the setup says no and the models end up being wrong. When we have a great setup, the models say no and end up being right.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Snow reported in Rockingham from one of my meteorology buddies at state. Lucky bastard got caught underneath a random snow shower that just developed down there
BHS1975
Member
Radar seems to be pivoting on the back edge looking as the gsb radar.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
BHS1975
Member
We need that flow at 500mb to back to the se instead of sw to pull in that Atlantic feed.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Isn't it ironic the first place that gets some snow in the NWS RAH CWA is also not under an advisory or warning
Cary_Snow95
Member
Lol this is a crapshoot at this point. I’m just relieved it’s almost over. I’m exhausted lmao
BHS1975
Member
Sun popped out earlier maybe we can get some instability going 
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NCSNOW
Member
Those returns are blossoming coming across state line. Not all virga. Long shot but if storm can stay on more north ly heading for a while longer, some of us might luck up and catch 30 to 60 mins of flakes.
Brett
Member
Local met showed recent model shows 14.55" here
Avalanche
Member
Maybe the sun can create some instability and spark some heavy snow showers under those towering cumulonimbus clouds.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah you're gonna get absolutely hammered there near Norfolk, VA w/ blizzard like conditions later in the overnight. Enjoy!!!
Brett
Member
Yep I have to plow the roads I work for the city, so money will be nice lol
Clayton Reid
Member
Dang, Eric and Brick! I knew ATL getting anything was a long shot but I thought at least you two had a chance! Looks like a bust for most of us huh? @Webberweather53 @Brick Tamland
Clayton Reid
Member
Yeah, I'm just waiting for this to finally be over and done with. Let's just move on to the rest of January. Goodness gracious haha.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Virga is quickly filling in on radar even as far west as Charlotte. Even if this is not reaching the ground it should aid in moistening the dry layer near the ground...
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Is the low still riding up the coast?
NCSNOW
Member
Yea Here comes our best and only shot out this way:
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I see all that moisture to the south and think that's got to come north over us.
NCSNOW
Member
Fixing to go hard Right Brick. Thats the problem unfortunately
Cary_Snow95
Member
Problem is it has a NE push to it and the northern most extent is mostly virgaI see all that moisture to the south and think that's got to come north over us.