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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

RAH saying because of the amount of snow to the south that they expanded the warning. I guess they think th dry layer is going to be overcome.

 
How long do I have to endure this raging virga storm??? Getting reports of sn all around me and nothing here yet.... seems the RDU snow hole is expanding NE
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
Atlanta was never going to receive any type of frozen precipitation from this storm, but I can't adequately state just how frustrating watching measurable snow falling thirty miles south of you and nothing falling from the sky at your house is.
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It is rather frustrating, as it happened today for several of us and in February 2004, as I've mentioned a few times before (which was seriously the pits, LOL).
 
Here in Florence we got about 3" in my back yard and it's still snowing. Last night it kept showing on models dry slot in precipitation over my area. Snowstorms are the hardest thing to predict.

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CentralGAColdFront said:
Atlanta was never going to receive any type of frozen precipitation from this storm, but I can't adequately state just how frustrating watching measurable snow falling thirty miles south of you and nothing falling from the sky at your house is.
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I feel you, I do. I'm not just talking about my backyard. But dang, I would have at least thought y'all had a chance! All of us got screwed by places that don't really even get snow. How ironically frustrating.
 
My Dude Eric Webber going to come out on top after all, lol.

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Webberweather53 said:
This is literally the biggest screw job in history... If we actually weren't this dry in the low-levels we would have probably verified the 4-8" I expected given what has fallen in the southwestern piedmont where many are getting close to 3-4" already. There's honestly not a whole lot I can do about this, it's virtually impossible to see these mesoscale-microscale details more than several hours out... At least I captured the western edge of the precipitation shield
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I know it's little consolation but great job man and hope people will realize when Webb speaks it's time to listen.... now hopefully it starts pouring there soon and goes out with a bang
 
Just imagine if we didn't have this virga for so long. Always something to cut down the totals.
 
Clayton Reid said:
I feel you, I do. I'm not just talking about my backyard. But dang, I would have at least thought y'all had a chance! All of us got screwed by places that don't really even get snow. How ironically frustrating.
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I got trolled by the radar earlier today and by the fascinating phenomenon of having the dewpoint go down while you have decent returns over you, and by radar I don't mean intellicast or wunderground which can show a lot of virga. The NWS radar had greens over my area for a little while and while I think I might have missed a flurry or two, you really would've thought there would have been light snow from that if you didn't know your dewpoint was in the single digits.

I'll give some credit to last night's 00z NAM. It actually was correct on there being a band that developed. But it was too dry in a lot of it's area. The cutoff for light snow accumulation was about 10-15 miles away from me.
 
I'll tell ya. That dry air screwed a lot of us here in SC.
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
Atlanta was never going to receive any type of frozen precipitation from this storm, but I can't adequately state just how frustrating watching measurable snow falling thirty miles south of you and nothing falling from the sky at your house is.
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I was in Lyons working, had a dusting on the ground when I left, and they wound up with about an inch or so... went to soperton to finish work, they had no accumulations, but got flurries for about an hour. We didn't get anything but flurries at the house..

I felt how you feel in 2009...seeing snow so close by while we, in Laurens county, got nothing!
 
These random snow holes in east-central NC are very rare in big winter storms, but I have seen them before in the historical record outside of March-April when your snow amounts and precipitation type are almost entirely rate driven. January 13-14 1933 is a classical example of a snow-hole but it was centered over I-95 between Smithfield and Enfield, while there was over 10" on either side in Goldsboro, Wilson, Rocky Mount, and Raleigh
January 13-14 1933 NC Snowmap.png
 
Big over performer here in Randolph County. Roads,interstates completely snow covered. Close to 1 inch in Randleman. 1/2 here at the house. No model since yesterday nam 12z had anything back this way. Knew we would get slug of moisture from a coastal off SE GA coast. Saw pic down at Seagrove looks like maybe 2+ inches.
 
Ugh the snow hole is expanding yet again, you've got to be kidding me. I swear if I come away with nothing out of this... I don't even know what to say anymore lol
 
Jack Roney said:
My Dude Eric Webber going to come out on top after all, lol.

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Nothing like a snow map put out at 400pm as event is underway. Mine from yesterday for my county I had a dusting to 2 western county and max 4 eastern. Thought it would be ne and should have painted se. No one hit 4, but was real close across county line. Fun storm to track.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
I have small small flakes falling in Cary. You should be next man
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I was hopeful, but not as much anymore, the dry slot is actually developing over RDU to Fayetteville and will shut off the precipitation across east-central North Carolina as the cold air advection aloft intensifies. Can I at least get token flakes please for the love of pete lol. I'm glad you got to see some!!
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I got trolled by the radar earlier today and by the fascinating phenomenon of having the dewpoint go down while you have decent returns over you, and by radar I don't mean intellicast or wunderground which can show a lot of virga. The NWS radar had greens over my area for a little while and while I think I might have missed a flurry or two, you really would've thought there would have been light snow from that if you didn't know your dewpoint was in the single digits.

I'll give some credit to last night's 00z NAM. It actually was correct on there being a band that developed. But it was too dry in a lot of it's area. The cutoff for light snow accumulation was about 10-15 miles away from me.
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Wow. Smh
 
Webberweather53 said:
I was hopeful, but not as much anymore, the dry slot is actually developing over RDU to Fayetteville and will shut off the precipitation across east-central North Carolina as the cold air advection aloft intensifies. Can I at least get token flakes please for the love of pete lol. I'm glad you got to see some!!
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I'm sorry, Eric. I really thought you had a chance since I had to come to the reality that Atlanta was just outta the question. Looks like we both got screwed. And others too
 
Going to be funny with RAH upping the totals tonight as the storm unfolds and it busts for RDU. Makes it look like no one has an idea what will really happen when it comes to snow here and folks won't take them seriously. They better hope we get those large rates like they talked about.
 
DP still 10, nothing reaching ground... not sure we overcome the dry air and we are running out of time

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metwannabe said:
Stupid HRRR shows 5" here lmao

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These stupid models are making fools out of us! We go on these wild Chase's because of them and look how it turned out. How embarrassing. Lesson learned from this storm: don't waste so much time on these model runs. They will take the joy out of your personal life and make it frustrating and draining.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Going to be funny with RAH upping the totals tonight as the storm unfolds and it busts for RDU. Makes it look like no one has an idea what will really happen when it comes to snow here and folks won't take them seriously. They better hope we get those large rates like they talked about.
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I think we're seeing with this storm the models and whatever happened before is useless. It's just going to do what it's going to do when it comes to winter storms around here. Could be snowing like crazy one place and nothing one county over. Or in the case of Wake, in the same county. Winter storms here make no logical sense and can't be forecasted correctly.
 
Snow flying in JoCo as of about 5 min ago. 8 Miles W of Kenly. Radar return has a good band just to the West of me.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I think we're seeing with this storm the models and whatever happened before is useless. It's just going to do what it's going to do when it comes to wintwr storms around here. Could be snowing like crazy one place and nothing one county over. Or in the case of Wake, in the same county. Winter storms here make no logical sense and can't be forecasted correctly.
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Any snow yet, Brick?
 
Brick Tamland said:
I think we're seeing with this storm the models and whatever happened before is useless. It's just going to do what it's going to do when it comes to wintwr storms around here. Could be snowing like crazy one place and nothing one county over. Or in the case of Wake, in the same county. Winter storms here make no logical sense and can't be forecasted correctly.
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Sorry man. I feel your pain. We've experienced our share in the ATL from other storms too
 
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