I found that the hrrr does a really good job within 10 to 12 hour range but beyond that in the 12 to 18 hour range it seems to struggle at times20z HRRR with another shift west
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I found that the hrrr does a really good job within 10 to 12 hour range but beyond that in the 12 to 18 hour range it seems to struggle at times20z HRRR with another shift west
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We're gonna be fine
And look at the mixing issues showing up further West as well as you mentioned.This HRRR run is going to stick Raleigh into the western edge of the core of this storm now... NW shifts likely not done yet either
Congrats on your flizzard Shawn. I got nada one flake. Lol. I'm about 5 mins from downtown CAE. Not sure about rest of January, but maybe February can get something our way. Since, typically that's our best month climo wise this time of year. Not sure though with this Nina pattern. We'll see.I can say that since yesterday, modeling picked up the strange "finger" with a dry slot to it's East. It worked out, and is what gave mby (at least) actual snowfall earlier today, after the virga storm.
Certainly that could be wrong but that's within 10 hours and the time frame I most trust the hrrrHRRR has gone from to to about 3" in Raleigh in the past several runs lol (when accounting for higher ratios). Keep coming...
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Wow. Shelter Cove Harbor. One of my favorite places at HHI. This is right across from the Disney resort there.
No sooner than Raleigh had basically thrown in the towel they extend the winter weather advisories one-tier County's westward, that's comical.
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HRRR looks worse
Actually turned out better for Wake Co.HRRR looks worse
I apologize. It got going after that frameStop it. Don't react to every....single....frame....
Better hunker down. You're about to be plowing roads the rest of the weekHrrr looks amazing here
Both the GFS and the HRRR are been showing more mixing/sleet/ice further inland from the NC coast. I understand this is only 1 run of each, but would that shift also correlate with the increase of snow amounts closer to and around RDU, at least according to RAH?
Yeah, I'll take that. Tight gradient as usual for Wake.![]()
HRRR Looks fantastic. I wish I could cash out. This thing changes like crazy every hour. Who knows at hour 8 what we really look like
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Precip flying in eastern Johnston County about 5500' in the air. Can see on radar, but nothing making to ground. Did dry air here just get 'trapped'?
Do you expect it to fill in or is raleigh staying high and dry all nightThe precipitation to our west is associated w/ our old vorticity max that helped produce snow & ice in GA/FL, while to the east it's associated with the primary low and the combination of the fading, older vorticity max and cold air advection on the back side of the low (which argues for descent) is leading to the snow hole over Raleigh. It's not something you can accurately predict even a day or two out if that
Hrrr says it fills in and the moisture push from the south agrees.Do you expect it to fill in or is raleigh staying high and dry all night
How great?HRRR looks great for rdu
That band over me that is dwindling or the band just to my east that is crawling NW.... that's what I'm gonna be watching, just how far west can it getThat band along i95 might be the central NC jackpot
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