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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Well then NAM, it's bias has been corrected, but precip wise it's still holding together at 72. A low definitely formed.
What would that mean in the long run if one were to form? Thanks!A low of sorts is definitely forming
Stormlover
Member
I'll take it..very consistent in this area with 2-3 
I think it is more realistic given the setup for this. I think we will see widespread 2-3 inch for a lot of people. With a sweet spot of 4 inch somewhere..
ForsythSnow
Moderator
If it weren't for this weird skip I likely believe would not exist, it's not that bad in the end.
RollTide18
Member
More precip
JLL1973
Member
Oh no doubt. That's about all you will ever get from these types of systems
Snowflowxxl
Member
CASH OUT!
RollTide18
Member
If it weren't for this weird skip I likely believe would not exist, it's not that bad in the end.
It’s almost like you can see the little convective bursts throughout the band.
This is some thunderstorm activity or at least convective activity out ahead, get that to overlap in a snow band and ooooffffff
Mason Dixon
Member
Is the changeover going to be immediately to snow or will it go to sleet for a bit and then snow?
I will give a million dollars for that run.
NAM run is great I think, it gives many a chance at seeing an inch+ in MS, AL, and NW GA.
Immediately to snow.
If it weren't for this weird skip I likely believe would not exist, it's not that bad in the end.
Freaking NAM. I hate you.....
I guess that bullseye near McComb, MS is just the NAM model reckoning on there being convective bursts of snow in that area?If it weren't for this weird skip I likely believe would not exist, it's not that bad in the end.
Oh. My. Goodness.
Verbatim that would be a heavy burst when it switches over
Verbatim that would be a heavy burst when it switches over
Stormlover
Member
sref mean for huntsville up to 2.33 and rising with a boom of over 5 in
Huntsville new SREF plumes run is out. Mean is 2 1/2 inches now. Up from about 2 inches. 
Ilovesnow28
Member
Wow 4.5 for Tuscaloosa sign me up...hold on wait a minute Is this model legit?
Would it not change from rain to a rain/snow mix and then to snow ?
Yes. Sorry about that.
weatherguy
Member
Seems like to me the GFS has been the most consistent (besides the one 00z last night) over the past several days when compared to all the other models in both amounts and placement.
Stormlover
Member
no, it will changeover fast
Ilovesnow28
Member
@DarkKnight can you pull one up for Tuscaloosa? Sorry if this is banter I'm excited
Stormlover
Member
We haven't watched the NAM as long, but it is being consistent..the GFS has been all over the place...went horrible at 12Z, a little better at 18Z
5Stripes4life
Member
This storm is gonna be a nailbitter for metro Atlanta.
Stormlover
Member
tuscaloosa is a mean of .79 right now, but it will be rising
Snowflowxxl
Member
SREF for ATL
0z NAM at 3k only seems to deliver snow for 2-3 hours for Central MS. That should be enough to at least accumulate something I guess. If it's going to be a short duration I hope there's some convective bursts in it.
ATLwxfan
Member
No problem with that look, at all!If it weren't for this weird skip I likely believe would not exist, it's not that bad in the end.
Stormlover
Member
wow, the nam is still getting faster, 3K nam has it entering nw ala late afternoon and to huntsville by early mon evening
ATLwxfan
Member
Brief mix but with cold rushing in and a soaking wet column I’d think it’s a quick change
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Round Oak Weather
Member
I would have to make a quick trip home
ATLwxfan
Member
A pretty little dusting will look nice and hopefully won’t cause traffic nightmares
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Sounding for central Alabama, this is very similar sounding that I had with a ULL back last December after the main event when it comes to the DGZ and column temps and a convective sounding, I got some hefty snow rates from that btw, up to 1.5 inch per hour
weatherguy
Member
The 12z GFS looked almost the same as the 18z:
1.2" (cobb) in HUN with the 12z and 1.5" (cobb) in HUN with 18z.
00z last night went way off like I mentioned but that's about it.
The NAM has backed off in the moisture and amounts on the new 00z, and watching it over the years, it seems to always overproduce snow amounts (especially at the end of the run).