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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

I'll add the Canadian in for this event: (P.S/ This thread should be for the 29th, at least for the western areas on this board).
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18z FV3, the front stalls, overrunning event. If that front stalls, there would be a good amount of frozen precip. Just one of the solutions.
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Would be nice to actually get a legitimate threat inside 7 days for once but that's apparently asking for too much out of this pattern
You're not kidding about that one bit. The pattern is going to be active due to the expected upper long wave trough over much of the 48. Models will not handle things well with short waves pushing through the upper long wave trough. So, anything beyond 6 - 7 days, I'd toss it. 500mb charts will be a mess beyond 5 days.
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
708 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Otherwise, the next cold front looks to arrive on Tuesday. The ECMWF
is currently more bullish with QPF as compared to the GFS. Thermal
profiles would be supportive of some snow potential
; however, this
remains a week out, so there is plenty of time to refine details
over the coming days.

Temperatures will be several degrees below normal for late week
before moderating back toward normal by Sunday into Monday.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...FC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
 
18z GFS, I'm just wondering if that peice of energy will speed up and it spins up a low on the tail end of the front. Possibility, but not guaranteed. Too much uncertainty at this time to figure out what solution has a better chance at verifying.
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