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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

Lol they deleted the thread for this storm on American, so it's obviously happening now. Really tho, I think it was premature to do that on their part, there's definitely some signal for anafrontal-type system with rain changing to snow depending on the depth & forward propagation of the oncoming arctic airmass, we're still a few days from ironing out details however.
 
RobertRath said:
Tell you what... I know one North Alabamian that’ll be pissed if we get left out again while central /south alabama gets snow again
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I wouldn't worry about it because of the GFS/FV3 18Z runs, especially since the Euro looked so good and the GEFS mean still has a good one.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol they deleted the thread for this storm on American, so it's obviously happening now. Really tho, I think it was premature to do that on their part, there's definitely some signal for anafrontal-type system with rain changing to snow depending on the depth & forward propagation of the oncoming arctic airmass, we're still a few days from ironing out details however.
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If you aren't near the Atlantic coast or something they don't consider it an event to follow?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol they deleted the thread for this storm on American, so it's obviously happening now. Really tho, I think it was premature to do that on their part, there's definitely some signal for anafrontal-type system with rain changing to snow depending on the depth & forward propagation of the oncoming arctic airmass, we're still a few days from ironing out details however.
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They must not have any members left from MS and AL. I mean, those two areas look to get at least "something", even if it's light.
 
Shawn said:
They must not have any members left from MS and AL. I mean, those two areas look to get at least "something", even if it's light.
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Yeah they're 85% Carolinas, and the rest is a member here and there plus the VA people. They don't care if it doesn't affect their region, only their backyards exclusively. Funnier thing is deleting a thread prevents people from going back and looking at what lead up to the failure or success.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Kinda lookin meh east of the apps, still time
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Yeah there is time but I think the people in NC/SC, and Northern Ga. will have to wait for mid to late February to have their chances. The western areas of the SE will be the most likely target for Wintry precip until then IMO. (If blocking does actually develop then the northern and more eastern portions of the SE)
 
deltadog03 said:
I also want to say I DO think we need a wave to develop or there will be a ton of pissed off people. I’m very skeptical of a front having that much precip with it. They usually dry out.

One last thing... this will likely be one of those cases where the cold air will squeeze every bit of moisture available. Interesting storm.
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If we get the FV3 look and a stronger wave, I could see the event turning significant for a pretty good area. The 18z ICON wasn't far from doing so as well at the end of it's range.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah they're 85% Carolinas, and the rest is a member here and there plus the VA people. They don't care if it doesn't affect their region, only their backyards exclusively. Funnier thing is deleting a thread prevents people from going back and looking at what lead up to the failure or success.
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This sums it up perfectly, and its pathetic on their part.
 
Might be the 84 hour nam but if it was to go out even further it would probably look better, energy is much more consolidated/stronger and the western part of that energy does not look as sheared as what the globals are saying, that would definitely let precip survive east of the apps
 
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It's trying to tap into moisture off the Atlantic this go (associated with weekend fail system/low). ruh roh.
 
Pv placement may allow for Nc/sc to get a decent band of precip this run, thing is will apps delay our CAA ?
 
Temps crash from 50s to the low 30s on the warm biased icon as Far East as the Nc piedmont, hmmm
 
1-0 so far looks solid here.
icon_asnow_seus_45.png
 
I can say, at least we now have something to track that has a better chance at verifying since it's in the 5 day window. With this "clipper-type" system, some will get a good amount of snow, very little or none at all. The front will move quick, and so will the snowfall, so, the snowfall amounts will be limited. But, some areas will get a "dumping" of snow in a short period of time.
 
tractor girl said:
So just like last year? (I live on the east OTP, just outside the cutoff line)
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It's mostly because the cold air doesn't get here in time. If the Icon does infact have a warm bias, it's likely snow extending further east than what it's showing. GFS/Euro paints brighter pictures for us with the CAA advancing further east more rapidly..
 
The icon accumulation map depicts the topography very well. The usual climo favored areas should do well. Hopefully the southwestern mountains of North Carolina get something out of this being they were shut out of the December storm.
 
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