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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

Snowflowxxl said:
lol she showed a model (pretty sure the HRRR at its longest range) that had ATL staying as rain through the event. She posted it as if it was a lock.
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If Birmingham, AL gets snow, ATL will probably as well. Models will start to become useless for the very short range. Watching trends on radar and temps. (nowcasting) is your friend.
 
olhausen said:
I dropped from 41 to 33 over the last 50 minutes so the cold is definitely moving faster now. Most of the moisture is gone but I am getting light flurries now.
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Yeah, you're up in middle TN, right? Hopefully you get to see some flakes!

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Latest from JAN:

DISCUSSION... No changes are planned to the current warning/advisory configuration. Just about all guidance continues to lock in on about a 3 hr window of significant snowfall after midnight in the current warning area as increasing ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough expands the precipitation shield. SREF/HREF output has been showing a window of high probs for heavy snowfall rates > 1" around 07 to 08z roughly along and just north of the I-20 corridor...this period will be especially critical in determining just how heavy the snowfall ends up being. For now will maintain the 1-3 inch amounts and continue messaging for the colder air to result in icing issues toward daybreak. Guidance had been trending farther south for a while with the heaviest snowfall but this trend seems to have reversed as they get a better handle on the upstream wave/observational trends...so southern portions of the area still look on target for around an inch of snowfall, perhaps lighter based on the most recent guidance, and will maintain the advisory at this time. For northern portions of the area, the precipitation shield is fairly locked in ahead of the wave and it is a matter of waiting for sufficient cooling. It will be a close call as the rain could end before this happens, particularly along north of the Crossett to GLH/GWO corridor. Given the uncertainties prefer to maintain the advisory for now...especially given that much colder temperatures moving in could result in icing problems with residual wetness from the evening rain. /EC/


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Snowflowxxl said:
New HRRR looks great!! Ella should probably give it a look and changer her assumption for ATL smh lol
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It's been slowly getting better on the past few runs. I see why some of you guys say HRRR is touch and go past 6hrs.
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FFC bumped up hourly temperatures around metro ATL. Here in Forsyth, time to drop below freezing has moved from 11am to 6pm. Doesn’t get below 34 during precip.
 
Seeing a lot of mention of "back edge of precip" and "cold air moving in slower than forecast" across different offices such as Huntsville and Shreveport.

HSV basically said that the 00z NAM was the only reason they didn't make bigger changes earlier.
 
Yeah...not liking that update. Confused though b/c at my location, I though the current temps were pretty on par with the forecast temps at this time and that we would drop quickly once the colder air arrived (which was to be later). We were just removed over here from the WSW. Oh well, on to next winter.

Was always concerned that the colder air wouldn't be here fast enough though. We were really threading the needle on this one.
 
The dude who posted on spanns blog didn’t mention the fact that once heavier rates start in Bham the column cools rapidly. Just that “cold wasn’t catching up” curious update at this point given that there are still at least 2 or 3 hours of moderate precipitation to south and west- I’ve seen 850s crash and Lower temps in a matter of minutes.


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