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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

00z GFS
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Stormlover said:
The same ensemble of models that said 100% chance of at least an inch for Huntsville last night, and an average of 3.03 inches, now says .68 of an inch of snowfall on average here. Yeah, I"m not happy.
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That's probably 0.67" more than I'm probably going to get in Florence
 
Just ain't in the cards this go round. I'm not sure why our local offices are even holding out. Freezing line just seems too far. Or I'm an idiot. Wouldn't be a first....
 
deltadog03 said:
2 things I feel confident about:
1) it’s not going to get below freezing for many areas that see snow while it’s snowing. Probably going to snow at like 35*
2) if you don’t have heavier precip it’s not going to be snow (or at least all snow).
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NAM showing it down to 31 snowing here..then over
 
Spann sounded a bit tense just now. Said maybe 1-2 hrs of snow. 1-2 inches. Just donno....
 
Dan Satterfield ways in..like the local mets here now can't handle it. And yes, Dan, there will be a lot more than half an inch in some of Alabama.

Update for those in AL and South TN. The evening NWP guidance and a look at radars continue to point to a light dusting of snow. Amounts over a half an inch unlikely except in higher elevs. Rarely do Arctic frontal passages bring more than this in the deep south.
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1015 PM CST Mon Jan 28 2019

.UPDATE...
Evening Update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A day in the life of a Deep South weather forecaster. Model
solutions have been bouncing around way too close to the potential
wintry weather event than this forecaster needs to see. Luckily,
the main theme we have been advertising has reappeared as a
potential solution in the Hi-Res output. The latest satellite
imagery has a robust jet digging into the Southern Plains and will
partially phase with the jet on the eastern side of the longwave
trough. The subfreezing air was trailing cold front back to the
west, but believe there will be much more going on than plain
advection. Significant frontogenetic forcing and enhanced
precipitation will occur over a 2-3 hour window just before and
after sunrise. At least that is the main timing. Expect diabatic
cooling to knock temps down to near freezing very quickly. This
should allow snow to accumulate due to the rate of fall,
regardless of exact surface temp.

Added Marengo and Perry Counties to the warning. Actually lowered
snow amounts in Marion and Winston, but will keep warning going at
this time due to potential travel issues and keep a consistent
message to all of Alabama. The northwest areas will eventually be
the coldest too. Kept the storm totals close but lowered the east
and northwest and left everyone else where they were. Generally
1-3 inches in the warning areas and trace to 1.5 inches in the
advisory areas.

More updates to follow.
 
Claycochaser said:
Tic...tic tic...tic tic. Needs to speed up guys. I know we are expecting a tilt and slowdown but times a wasting.
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I think everything is going as planned. The cold will start catching up. The models are showing the precip. as rain at first, but changing over. The 0c line is already catching up to the moisture.
 
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