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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

I know people are desperate and trying to cling to whatever model shows them getting the most snow, but keep in mind it's still too early to take the NAM too seriously.
 
namconus_asnow_seus_28.png
This looks great but doesn’t the nam always overdue precipitation totals? Believe me I hope it’s on to something as it’s the best run for I’ve seen since yesterday morning.
 
Model trends seem to be highlighting central and northern MS for the higher accumulation potential (outside of the Apps). I'm glad I made the decision to stay in Clinton, MS Monday night and Tuesday. Depending on road conditions, I might have to wait until Wednesday to drive back home though.
 
If I’m not mistaken the upgraded NAM has a drier bias now, was to dry with the ZR that last ice storm in nc but trended up as it got closer
 
This looks great but but doesn’t the nam always overdue precipitation totals? Believe me I hope it’s on to something as it’s the best run for I’ve seen since yesterday morning.

Actually they corrected it and maybe went overboard according to someone here last month. The point though is I think the changes to where it's looked more like the Euro happen in it's reasonable time.

Point of this is still the same though, if no low develops, it'll probably just be light precip.
 
Actually they corrected it and maybe went overboard according to someone here last month. The point though is I think the changes to where it's looked more like the Euro happen in it's reasonable time.

Point of this is still the same though, if no low develops, it'll probably just be light precip.
Looking at it now it seems to keep the precipitation around longer then the 12z gfs.
 
Pardon my ignorance (and going off-topic), but how accurate are these Kuchera maps compared to the standard 10:1 ratio maps and do they include sleet accumulations?
 
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