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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

The HRRR is a few degrees from a 2-3" snow into Eastern AL and is bouncing run by run. That will be interesting.
 
Again for my GA friends.... the timing of when this comes in honestly couldn’t be worse.
 
Timing sucks for sure, but its worth the risk to see some flakes fly in the day. I hate when events start at 3am and I have to be dead tired all day to see it unfold. Nothing better than daytime snow.
 
Guys, the freezing line really needs to get a move on. I don't like how far behind the precip it is lagging currently. Need to see some increase in speed in the next few hours. If it maintains it's current rate then its game over folks.
 
Way up here in northern Middle Tennessee it’s still 50 degrees. I believe models had me at 45 by now but could be wrong on that. I’m only posting this here as I saw some talking about where the cold was compared to the moisture.
 
Claycochaser said:
Guys, the freezing line really needs to get a move on. I don't like how far behind the precip it is lagging currently. Need to see some increase in speed in the next few hours. If it maintains it's current rate then its game over folks.
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Is it supposed to speed up??
 
FWIW, GFS/FV3-GFS are the only models I've looked at from 18z model suite that nailed the temp here in ATL at 00z this evening. HRRR (18z run) was 4 degrees too cool, NAM (12 and 3km) was 2 degrees too cool, RGEM was 5 degrees too cool, ICON was 3 degrees too cool.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
By looking at the spc mesoanalysis, precip band has slowed down and Cold air is beginning to catch up
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Beginning to tilt/pivot, or perhaps transit energy to developing weak wave in gulf. This is fun even if it busts.
 
hrrr_asnow_seus_19.png


latest HRRR
 
Looking like the initial front is around Memphis. Colder (arctic) air not too far behind.....
 
SREF plumes are down pretty significantly, but still around an inch mean for Bham. Huntisville is down to around a .5 inch and Tuscaloosa is pushing 1.5.
 
Its simply amazing to me at how drastic models change up to the event on a southern snow. The southern shift of qpf was evident. Hopefully somebody here in Alabama will cash. Blount County still looks like a 1/2 to possibly an inch.
 
According to all guidance this is the are to watch over the next few hours for better precip development
24eb1f1b8baaecc6ebf099cce1ad0ea4.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
That’s a short lived paste bomb, steep mid lapses and bunch of lift in the dgz for a limited time, would not be suprised if that band produced 1-1.5” per hour, also can’t forget that Frontogenesis E0E393C5-FF5F-4390-B984-A34355B72BBC.png
 
You silly NAM you goes to show you just how up and down models can truly be...I went from about 1 inch on 18z and 00z 3 inch
 
I’m not sure why the models are even in play, I’m generally a lurker but current observations have the coldest air just entering north Arkansas. I don’t know if it will make it down to us before the moisture is gone???
 
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