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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

Stormlover said:
Already have been...riding the NAM and to a lesser extent, the SREF. NAM does great in winter. I'd believe it much more than the GFS/Fv3/ICON/ CMC/
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Isn't it the short range NAM that does better ? I'm not sure the NAM is in its good range yet is it ?
 
cyclogent said:
Latest day 3 QPF from the WPC for Monday night into Tuesday is pretty much the same. Less for west TN, more for GA and western NC/SC, but otherwise consistent with earlier forecasts. We're inside 72 hours with a consistently modeled threat that all models show to one degree or another. Time to sit back and relax. At least this isnt day 7 or 10 or 15 lol. :cool:

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I have been seeing about a quarter of an inch of QPF in MBY from most of the models over the last 36 hours. However, the degree of cold air that gets involved is what our area, east of the mountains, needs to resolve. We have gone back and forth on snow totals and as it stands right now, the cold air will not be deep enough for anything substantial before things dry out. Need that wave to develop on the front at just the right time to slow this thing down.
 
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12z eps


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Good luck to y’all west off the apps, y’all really do need this after December, like I’ve said ensembles smooth the precip out/broaden it but there could be some hefty bands embedded in the broader band of precip, those bands could give 3+ if your in the right spot, that’s why I would not freak out, just wait till the short range models come in then get worried
 
cyclogent said:
Latest day 3 QPF from the WPC for Monday night into Tuesday is pretty much the same. Less for west TN, more for GA and western NC/SC, but otherwise consistent with earlier forecasts. We're inside 72 hours with a consistently modeled threat that all models show to one degree or another. Time to sit back and relax. At least this isnt day 7 or 10 or 15 lol. :cool:

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With that broad of precip footprint, there has to be a low forming!? Has it been on the models? I know there was a few blips showing one, and WPC is pretty good
 
Tarheel1 said:
With that broad of precip footprint, there has to be a low forming!? Has it been on the models? I know there was a few blips showing one, and WPC is pretty good
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The Euro has been the one trying to form one and the other models are trending that way. But it wouldn't be in the gulf if it does form.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Lol it doesn't matter if it's very light. I was sitting at 32 with light rain/sleet because the precip wasn't very heavy in La Fayette after the Christmas snow moved out. Yes, plain rain outside of the sleet at freezing.
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Sorry if this is banter, but are you referring to the Christmas 2004 snow in south Louisiana? I remember that the snow missed MBY to the south that time. Back to topic, I agree rates could very well play a factor for many.

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This is what FFC says:

Snow fall amounts will vary from 3-6 inches in the
higher elevations of the mountains to less than a half inch across
the rest of north GA. This is still on day 4 so there is still
some uncertainty and changes in snow amounts can be expected.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
I really think a couple of inches around where I am at (over 1800ft) but FFC is always wiling to call accumulations here and not so much anywhere else. As we get closer, they will certainly adjust.
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I like my chances down below you too. We usually fair better than others with this setup.
 
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