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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

Snowflowxxl said:
NAM looks badddd for a lot of us
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GeorgiaGirl said:
NAM says cancel the warnings and advisories outside of a strip in south central MS and SW AL, and that the RGEM led the way.

I'm sure that the long range models have it down.
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ForsythSnow said:
I'm tossing this piece of garbage. Completely disgusting.
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Really time to stop looking at the models guys.
 
Cold air is trending further behind precip on the NAM. That seems to be the issue. It’s just rain for
most
 
Typical heavy snow sounding based off hrrr, maybe some thunder snow?, not saying it’s happening but a possible outcome that may never verify 4FCC847F-4306-4046-96FE-F40D43925064.png
 
Lol might be the long range hrrr but with this type of convection there could be some small hail based off soundings, LOL
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Getting breezy out ahead of the front here in Baton Rouge. I'll be looking forward to witnessing the storm from Jackson tonight. Radar trends look promising too.

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The trends at this point are not good at all... the NAM and RGEM are the two best models inside 36 hours and with both of them showing little to no snow it's not a good sign. The issue doesn't seem to be qpf as much as it is the cold lagging behind a little too much.
 
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HUN is keeping their Winter Storm Warning for the entire CWA:

LOOKING AT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, HIRES
MODELS ARE A BIT TOO QUICK WITH THE PRECIP AND ARE SLIGHTLY
UNDERDOING THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. AM ALSO A LITTLE CONCERNED THE
GUIDANCE IS WEAKENING THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AS IT CROSS THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT, LEADING TO A LESSER AMOUNT OF SNOW. SO, WHILE THIS FORECAST
REFLECTS A SLIGHT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL, DID NOT REDUCE
SNOW TOTALS AS MUCH AS THE HIRES GUIDANCE INDICATES. SO, BASED ON THE
A SLIGHTER HIGHER TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE, SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK
TO BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH UP TO 2.5
INCHES ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

THE ONE CONCERN WITH ALL OF THIS IS, AND HAS BEEN, THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SNOWFALL. WHILE 2 INCHES DOES NOT SEEM LIKE
A LOT OF SNOW (AND REALLY IT'S NOT), WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE, THERE IS STILL
SOME CONCERN OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. GIVEN THAT THIS MIGHT BE
A SHORT DURATION BUT HIGHER IMPACT SNOW EVENT, WILL LEAVE THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AS IS, WHICH WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
MIDNIGHT.
 
Robert West said:
Things could change, it's getting to the point where you just watch the radar now. Personally, I wouldn't even look at the models to much if I was in MS, AL, or GA. I'd just be observing the radar trends and hoping for the best. Good luck.
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Right. I mean sure, the models could be right and this could just be a minor event, but to proclaim that the threat may be over or done when the event hasn’t even started is not wise to do, that’s how you end up getting stuck at work.
 
Sending my best from Sumter County, South Carolina. We had a nice 4-5 inch snow last year and not a darn thing this year. I'm alright with getting nothing. Who knows maybe the black ice will come out in South Carolina and give us a day off of work!
 
Huntsville says 1 to 2 inches for most of the area yet they are maintaining a warning. I thought 1 to 2 inches was advisory criteria ?
 
Jason Simpson just updated his forecast and it is still the same. I have seen many of our mets post updates regarding the snow, and none of them have lowered amounts. Obviously, they are not all aboard on the NAM.

That BAMS model is probably full of crap, but it sure is pretty to look at.
 
Parker said:
Jason Simpson just updated his forecast and it is still the same. I have seen many of our mets post updates regarding the snow, and none of them have lowered amounts. Obviously, they are not all aboard on the NAM.

That BAMS model is probably full of crap, but it sure is pretty to look at.
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James Spann is sticking to his morning forecast also. So I guess we will find out in about 12 to 16 hours how it will play out.
 
South AL Wx said:
If you live in central Alabama, hope the Baron model is right!

JP Dice:

New run of the Baron Model 3KM suggesting the ribbon of higher snow amounts across northern Greene, Tuscaloosa, Jefferson, and St. Clair Counties #alwx @WBRCnews


View attachment 14138
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I’ve been crapping on this model for days . Can’t turn around and like it now . That seems way overdone


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The RGEM was not far off from showing us something like the Baron model. Very heavy precip trying hard to change over. Boy that was close


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SoutheastRidge said:
Huntsville says 1 to 2 inches for most of the area yet they are maintaining a warning. I thought 1 to 2 inches was advisory criteria ?
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Definitely is in the South, especially with snow falling at such cold temperatures. Now idk how tomorrow will work out, especially with temps that rose to near 60 in areas of Alabama today... but when snow falls at such cold temperatures, it tends to stick on the roads faster than the ground. Atlanta was a huge example of this in 2014, if you go back and look at all the videos and photos from that event, the roads looked more white than the grass did. I've noticed this over the years, the colder the temperature that snow falls at, the more it seems to stick on the pavement faster than the ground. When snow is falling in the 30s, it tends to add up on the grass way faster than the pavement.
 
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