RollTide18
Member
To me, as long as we have the precip, we're fine, if it's heavy enough it can change over. We cant afford for models to get any warmer though, hopefully it's a blip and not a trend.
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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
To me, as long as we have the precip, we're fine, if it's heavy enough it can change over. We cant afford for models to get any warmer though, hopefully it's a blip and not a trend.
Go see how long you can stand outside, before you lose consciousness!
The rain behind the snow to me implies that the moisture in the snow growth region is pretty much non existent at that point.
accu35
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I think we will be fine to be honest, they may be trending to a 1-2" solution now and finally some agreement, but I still can see isolated 3s or higher with heavy prcip bands.
Yep. Could be more freezing rain/drizzle than thought about.
RollTide18
Member
I dont think it necessarily changes over to rain, it's just a problem with that map, I've noticed it in previous runs showing rain with temps in the 20s well behind the front.
I don’t either but that’s prob that model saying hey moisture is shallow and it’s only going to be drizzle or ZR
Part of the problem is like we talked about the other night is the dominant precip chart is determining the precip if it fell the time the chart was made. The QPF is from the hours previous thus the overlap. Like I said, a worthless chart.
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I was going to post the same thing. Weak moisture in the snow growth region... I bet a sounding would show exactly that.
Energy looked good from what I could tell, just didn’t change over fast enough. Cold push didn’t look as good either
Yep you can clearly see it in the chart above. The heaviest accumulations is perfectly in line with the ridge and mountain tops with Cheaha seeing the max.
RosewoodWX
Member
Parker
Member
Hopefully the EPS holds its own here in a few. Someone who has the earlier access to it, please post. Will it be out around 1:30?
This is exactly right. That ridge, although lower than Cheaha extends into northwest Georgia for areas that range from 1100'-1400' elevation. I've seen those areas in Paulding and Haralson counties get minor dustings in situations like this, whereas the surrounding areas get nothing.
0z vs 12z (new run backed off qpf a bit for sure)
Not the greatest run for any of us but only 1 to 2/10th in. of QPF could make all the difference for some areas. Almost impossible for the models to have that exact QPF output completely accurate when we are still talking about Tuesday. (eternal optimist, for now!)
cyclogent
Member
Latest day 3 QPF from the WPC for Monday night into Tuesday is pretty much the same. Less for west TN, more for GA and western NC/SC, but otherwise consistent with earlier forecasts. We're inside 72 hours with a consistently modeled threat that all models show to one degree or another. Time to sit back and relax. At least this isnt day 7 or 10 or 15 lol.
accu35
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Your right, still little way to go. The rain system we had the other day was over performer, flooded my town. Shows you right there that no models or people will figure out the QPF until radar watch lol