This is definitely not cold chasing moisture, the actual front is the cause of the moisture with the cold undercutting the warm air resulting in moisture behind the front.
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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Just like I did with the coastal? Lol
At least the timing isn't too bad since it will be after sunset, So there is that
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NWS Hunstvillle is a very good office of professional Mets. I trust them to make the best call with the information that they have. This is not entirely a cold chasing moisture setup when a weak low gets involved.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Perhaps the front slows down but I just looked out of curiosity and the cold front is still ahead of most of the precip. And by "most", it'd be ahead by plenty if you didn't count the sprinkles that have developed in North Alabama I believe. Add in the possibility of a weak low developing too.
Also, if you're going to go by globals, I think both BHM and FFC are mostly right on what they've put down...
Edit: Okay, looking at a different map, I'm wrong. It's mostly just about lined up.
Also, if you're going to go by globals, I think both BHM and FFC are mostly right on what they've put down...
Edit: Okay, looking at a different map, I'm wrong. It's mostly just about lined up.
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snowlover91
Member
It is most definitely cold chasing moisture. Look at the 3km NAM, it’s a classic look where the surface cold is lagging behind.
Here’s a sounding to illustrate what I’m talking about. Notice the boundary layer is still quite warm and the precip is moving out. That is classic cold chasing the moisture and the 3km NAM is the best model for thermal profiles inside 36 hours.
Definitely cold chasing moisture no doubt about that.
I think the highest accumulations could very well happen SW of BHM toward Tuscaloosa on toward Shelby County. If we do get some surface wave to form, that may provide just enough added CAA to change over a hair faster and that is where the front will probably pivot.
I think the highest accumulations could very well happen SW of BHM toward Tuscaloosa on toward Shelby County. If we do get some surface wave to form, that may provide just enough added CAA to change over a hair faster and that is where the front will probably pivot.
Well this might explain the NAMs differences from the other models then.
Tim is a good met for gso, but what model is this ? Rpm ? Even gives @Tarheel1 and @Jimmy Hypocracy some snow
snowlover91
Member
Yes soundings are one of the best ways to figure out what’s going on in the atmosphere. Our local NWS office here in Raleigh has been burned a few times in recent years when they relied on globals vs what the 3km NAM was showing. It’s a fantastic model for thermal profiles especially at this range.
Just an FYI, Met Jason Simpson just tweeted that the HRRR is initializing too dry compared to reality. So subsequently output down the line is too dry. Just something to think about.
Gulf convection robbing moisture?
18z GEFS
Wow ... I must have been thinking of pronunciation of Jackson, MS. It's been a long day ... and I'm just getting started too for tonight's show, lol.
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Stormlover
Member
temps are now progged to come down slower than in previous days
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Ok guys enough of the cold air chasing moisture debate!! Carry it to banter!!
Just to give an idea of the lift ahead of the front, just look at these clouds in the picture I just took!
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Stormlover
Member
no factor, but the fact the hrrr at least is not initializing with enough precip is significant to consider
RollTide18
Member
He’s saying that the HRRR is too dry and there’s a bit more moisture than modeled.
LovingGulfLows
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Precip seems healthy enough on radar so far....it'll continue to fill in. You can see the heavier returns entering MS...I'd imagine the banding will get more impressive as the evening wears on.
He is likely a NWS employee using the classic "cranky" deal like in the WWE when someone made a crankyvince account and posted relevant info/mumblings from behind the scenes during shows.
I've read the guy's stuff over the years and he's pretty darn smart.
addicted2boost
Member
Cold looks way behind looking at current radar and temp obs. I have not compared to model output though. Guessing it will speed up as it goes more neutral.
Snowflowxxl
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Looks like cold is still behind moisture on radar. Thought it was gonna be opposite.
accu35
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models really never changes it over until it's somewhere in south MS.
LovingGulfLows
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Sub-freezing temps still back in NW Arkansas...big yikes. Gotta be a 100-150 mile lag between the back edge of the precip and the 32 degree temp line. Hope that cold air speeds up or lights out for many.
Showmeyourtds
Member
Is the WPC analysis site loading for anyone?
Nevermind:
Nevermind:
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His thoughts are not far from my own. Although, I'm not sure about East AL being too warm, but it could be. I wouldn't be surprised to see the heavier accumulations reach into Talladega county, but beyond that is iffy.
Firstly, it's possible the cold air gets "hung up" on the hills and mountains to the east of Talladega county. That hurts Cleburne, Clay, Randolph, Coosa and Tallapoosa counties. Seen that before in these types of setups.
Secondly, don't be surprised to see moisture dry up as it hits these same areas. Once again, seen it before.
All that said, if enough cold air leaches down the valleys, and the moisture doesn't dry up, I could see a secondary max of snow in these very same areas. I think the GFS shows this best case.
Snowflowxxl
Member
The 23Z HRRR looks better for our Birmingham friends.
I’ll be sitting up in Bluff Park in Hoover off of Tyler road. Roughly 900 feet in elevation to be exact. They seem to always do okay up there, but this will be my first storm in this location. Crashing at my buddies house. I feel pretty good sitting in southern Jefferson and have some elevation on my side.
ChattaVOL
Member
Already getting rain here in Chattanooga.
addicted2boost
Member
Always a good spot around here. I'm a few doors down. I'm at around 1020 here.
HRR looks shunted south on reflectivity. Looks like southern is cutting off more precip to northern areas.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
HRRR May look good for NGA
Snowflowxxl
Member
HRRR says the state of GA is too warm for any snow.
925mb temps
850mb temps
850mb temps
I posted my final forecast call map.
Storm5
Member
Each HRRR run gets better and better
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WXinCanton
Member
Lol, what a whiff for us GA people.