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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

WXinCanton said:
sn10_acc.us_se.png
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Sheesh at that updraft helicity. No doubt an EF3 or two if those supercells verify.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
3km actually gives some parts of Atlanta heavy snow towards the end at hour 16. Interestng.
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00z NAM is illustrating that worst case scenario from the snow uncertainty graphic FFC put together earlier today. This was one of their concerns that ATL south and west could get hammered from a band just like this.
 
I just got to Clinton, MS. I may get very little sleep tonight, since the action gets going after 1 am. Temp is about 55 out here and breezy. No precip yet.

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I suppose it's Battle stations funny so far most all recent model runs have done an abrupt 180 and trended up for some pretty decent areas of impact. We got the RAP, 12KNAM, 3KNAM, HRRR, WRF-AR, and WRF-NM both appear to on the uptick as well, which is nice but at sometime its radar and SPC watching now too
 
The same ensemble of models that said 100% chance of at least an inch for Huntsville last night, and an average of 3.03 inches, now says .68 of an inch of snowfall on average here. Yeah, I"m not happy.
 
Stormlover said:
The same ensemble of models that said 100% chance of at least an inch for Huntsville last night, and an average of 3.03 inches, now says .68 of an inch of snowfall on average here. Yeah, I"m not happy.
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We tried to tell you that the SREF was unreliable. Hope it works out for you.
 
hmm.. from someone on facebook that has done meteorology in the service:
Here is a quick analysis of the current water vapor satellite shot. All of the players that could bring snow to the south are visible. Those east of AR need that vorticity lobe over Oklahoma to arrive on schedule early a.m. Any delay in this will delay onset of snow. This feature will bring the forcing that is going to be necessary in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Without this, the dendritic growth zone likely fails overall in production.
A jet streak down at 500mb is seen over Texas with a small maximum which also will aid in lift if it arrives on time as well.
All of this has to Merry up at the right time for good enough snow production to overcome melting affects of very warm ground (ground temps in the mid 50s). That will cut totals ..but by how much? Will find out tomorrow. lobe.jpg
 
FFC:
.UPDATE...
Current forecast is on track tonight as clouds push across the
area and light rain is entering northwest Georgia. Have only made
minor tweaks to hourly temperatures and sky cover at this time.
Have not made any changes to the Winter Weather Advisory or Watch
at this time, as we will continue to monitor incoming model data.
Updated forecasts issued shortly.
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Stormdoc said:
Yeah good to see a model other than just the FV3 give central NC a shot at more than token flurries. These convective shots are quite unpredictable but fun if you’re lucky enough to be underneath it.
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Let's just hope one of us on here who really love this stuff is one of the lucky one's Lol
 
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