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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

Text data from 12z GFS This is from Charlie Brown airport.

prec.png
 
Stormlover said:
look how screwed up the euro is..that isn't rain on the back side...can't believe a thing it shows
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Friendly reminder.....Thats showing green because there isn't enough moisture in the snow growth region to actually snow. it comes down as some drizzle/light rain. yes it will freeze on contact with temps below freezing.
 
deltadog03 said:
Friendly reminder.....Thats showing green because there isn't enough moisture in the snow growth region to actually snow. it comes down as some drizzle/light rain. yes it will freeze on contact with temps below freezing.
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That happened here in Baton Rouge during the storm system on 1/17/18. Rain changing to snow by 4pm, but moisture got scoured out by 8pm. Result was it was just tiny ice pellets near the end.

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deltadog03 said:
Friendly reminder.....Thats showing green because there isn't enough moisture in the snow growth region to actually snow. it comes down as some drizzle/light rain. yes it will freeze on contact with temps below freezing.
Click to expand...
Shouldn't it show it in pink then? I have never heard of this until now.
 
Stormlover said:
look how screwed up the euro is..that isn't rain on the back side...can't believe a thing it shows
View attachment 14080
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OK one more time. That isn't rain on the back side. In fact it isn't anything on the back side. That is an 6 hour QPF map with precip determined by the temp taken at the time the image was produced.

And

Oh look a pony.
 
Stormlover said:
look how screwed up the euro is..that isn't rain on the back side...can't believe a thing it shows
View attachment 14080
Click to expand...

Just to quote this post again. That above is a QPF map, the one below is simulated radar and radar with precip type overlay.
 

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You can see the system shaping up nicely now.

The front is easily visible and looks healthy. You can easily make out the energy down in the GOM that will enhance the band across Mississippi/Alabama.9E0582DF-D216-4CB3-9135-0AF41CF226C2.jpeg

It’s time to now cast guys! Radar is lighting up in a few hrs! Enjoy the ride and don’t let the frustration of “it could be more” ruin a nice little snow tomorrow!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Isnt it kind of late in the game to be looking at the Euro and GFS ? Wouldnt short range models be more accurate at this point ?
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We don’t really like what the short range models are showing and prefer whichever model is calling for the most snow.


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I think most mets will go climo here as they probably should. It rarely snows. It almost never snows substantially when cold chases moisture. The models as stated are all over the place but no model is forecasting a big event.


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I don’t know what’s going to happen at this point, models going up, models going down. It really is nowcasting time.
 
Until the snow starts falling, there isnt really much nowcasting to do. We still need the models to pinpoint when the changeover is going to occur and how much moisture will be left. Besides, without the models, what else is left to discuss ?
 
Funny its snowing northern obx on radar. The storm we chased and had like 70 pages of thread, actually produced some flakes for one county in the SE that probably has 20 people living there year round lol.
You can see the Alabama Smasher on radar rolling into NW TN at the moment. Good luck to you guys. Be sure to post some pics
 
I remember there was an event a bit similar to this but much faster back on March 3, 2016. It seemed to be similar in fashion as it started off as rain and then where rates got heavier, there was moderate snow. I remember it put down a quick half inch of snow and then the sun came out and melted it all. I expect this event to be similar, but there being less rain out front and there also being more snow. I also expect a few patches to remain in shaded areas into Wednesday morning.
 
Guys, we need to keep banter and friendly conversation in the forum that has been made for this. I just got done moving 30 post in the last 5 pages.

Thank you
 
NAM says cancel the warnings and advisories outside of a strip in south central MS and SW AL, and that the RGEM led the way.

I'm sure that the long range models have it down.
 
tuckermcclendon said:
Just kinda of a question. There looks to be more moisture on radar than the models are showing.. does this mean anything or am I just looking at it wrong ?
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The models have been showing this for a few Days I believe. For some reason it seems the moisture is decent before Nashville but then putters out and reforms as it goes south and east of Nashville. I keep hoping we somehow over perform like the 2003 January storm that was only forecasted to bring an inch or so and dropped 7 on Nashville. I wasn’t living here so I have no idea how similar this storm is to that one but this is nothing but wishful thinking on my part anyways.
 
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