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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

18z Euro with MLSP trends

With the piece of energy up in the lakes and it's surface low you do have a nice piece of energy in the deep south and trying hard to be separate slp. HP nosing in better of TN/KY.

9-km ECMWF Global 00z_12z 3-Hourly United States 6-h Precipitation 90 (1).png9-km ECMWF Global 00z_12z 3-Hourly United States Snowfall 90.png

9-km ECMWF Global 00z_12z 3-Hourly United States 500 hPa Rel Vorticity 90 (1).pngEPS_MSLP.gif
 
campamy said:
When I was trying to figure out Kuchera last year I think I read somewhere that it's inflated and not all mets agree on it's accuracy. Can't find where I read that though. Does anyone have a good site or explanation/findings on its accuracy?
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all mets don't agree on much of anything..lol..but instead of using 10:1, no matter what the setup is, it more accurately reflects what the ratio should be taking into account the temps the snow is falling through.
 
Wouldn’t the 18z euro bode better for nc since there’s separation ?
 
from firsthand weather: the snow rates should exceed melting and the best chance for accumulations will across northern & central Mississippi, Tennessee, northern & central Alabama, northern Louisiana and northern Georgia (see Fig. 3). At this point, it appears some areas may see 1-4″. This will impact travel, especially for areas that see snow fall pre-dawn on Tuesday. firsthandwx.png
 
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Stormlover said:
from firsthand weather: the snow rates should exceed melting and the best chance for accumulations will across northern & central Mississippi, Tennessee, northern & central Alabama, northern Louisiana and northern Georgia (see Fig. 3). At this point, it appears some areas may see 1-4″. This will impact travel, especially for areas that see snow fall pre-dawn on Tuesday. View attachment 13349
View attachment 13349
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Nice map. Are both maps the same?
 
FROM NWS BMX @0429 THIS AM

THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER COLD AIRMASS SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST, AND THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WEST-SOUTHWEST 850-500MB SHOULD
RESULT IN QUALITY MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND POST-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BREAK OUT WITH THE AID OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX. OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO, WHICH MAY FEATURE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ON
TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THE ECMWF MAY
BE PLACING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON DIGGING THE VERY SOUTHERN END OF
THE TROUGH. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE NEUTRAL TILT AS THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA AND LESS OVERLAP OF COLD AIR WITH
PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THE POSITIVELY-TILTED AND
SNOWIER GFS SOLUTION IS FAVORED, AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES PLUNGE
INTO THE UPPER 20S. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE TEENS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND/OR THURSDAY MORNING FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
 
Snowflowxxl said:
How often do yall usually see snow down in Louisiana??
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Accumulating snow? First time I saw any was in January '02. Here's a list of the other times it's occurred IMBY.
December '08
December '09
February '10
January '14 (twice)
December '17
January '18

And that's it. I graduated from college in Jackson, MS, where snow or ice occurred in some form or other at least once each winter. So when we get snow that sticks I get excited. Everything shuts down too, because of how rare it is. Anyway, don't want to wander off topic. Suffice it to say, I get giddy when the chance for snow is great enough to put it on the NWS graphics (even if Jackson is a 2.5 hr drive from home).
 
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