• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh90-96 (1).gifPrecip still there, just temp issue on this run. I wouldn't worry about it.
 
packfan98 said:
The 18z GEFS looks drier than the 12z by about a 1/10th of an inch of qpf across most areas. Not a trend you want to see. Hopefully future runs will beef back up. Those of you with access to the individual members, I'm curious if any develop a low with enhanced precip similar to the Euro. If that doesn't happen, the moisture could be limited and we may see further reduction in totals in future runs.
Click to expand...
Every run will shift back n forth for sure. I'm leaning towards a blend between Euro/Gfs, which should a decent hit for many.
 
Yeah the 18z gefs is much drier 12z vs 18z
641393fc45db442609cc1a89198c46f2.jpg
62e799322b050bf55afa64ced1c0832a.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
if The 00z guidance/ensembles comes in drier than I’ll get worried, but anyways a few of the gefs ensembles wanted to develop a southern slider looking storm after this one, most were suppressed and a few show a far northern solution
 
Storm5 said:
Yeah the 18z gefs is much drier 12z vs 18z
641393fc45db442609cc1a89198c46f2.jpg
62e799322b050bf55afa64ced1c0832a.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I'm with you on totals, I think widespread 1-2 will be likely. Although, if Euro is right I can see a big deal.
 
I know it's early and the models can change but I hope someway somehow the models can trend better and catch us all off guard and give us all here in the south our first legit snowstorm board wide... I feel like we all are beyond over do of a large snowstorm sorry if this is banter guys
 
I gotta say this tho, the euro may be showing heavier precip due to its better resolution and the fact that I may pick up convective/mesoscale banding, steep lapse rates aloft/amount of lift in the DGZ, and the amount of forcing, and a better resolution can help show that
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Im getting to the point as to where if I see a flake it will be considered a win.
Click to expand...

We always have to take what we can get. I still feel confident in this being a legit event here, more legit than anything we've had modeled so far this Winter imo.

EDIT: It's kinda weird the EURO is considered the best case scenario as of right now for most of us. That's probably what's fueling some of my confidence also.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top