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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

mydoortotheworld said:
What’s funny is that while the operational GFS has trended drier, the ensembles tell a different story
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Here are the eps members and gefs members from 12z today . Many support a light event no doubt but there are a few in both sets that fizzle to very little . So a drier solution is very possible
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Storm5 said:
Yeah I’ll take mid 20s and the snowy euro . It’s the best looking model out there for MBY. Time to ignore reality .....All hail the king
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Euro control and EPS
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Use to be the euro was showing the goods you could toss the other models aside. More recently I’ve noticed though that the euro always seems to show more snow then what reality ends up being. This is for my area only though as I haven’t paid attention to other areas and storms that play out. I say it’s time for the euro to act like the king and bring us to victory!!
 
olhausen said:
Use to be the euro was showing the goods you could toss the other models aside. More recently I’ve noticed though that the euro always seems to show more snow then what reality ends up being. This is for my area only though as I haven’t paid attention to other areas and storms that play out. I say it’s time for the euro to act like the king and bring us to victory!!
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This is very true . I know one thing I won’t believe a damn thing the FV3 says . The horrible model showed parts of Mississippi getting a few inches of snow behind the Wednesday system this past week .it sucks


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ATLwxfan said:
The negativity is funny but unfortunately probably makes more sense as an outcome for a clipper. I’d also say the GFS has trended dry the last few runs.


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I’ll feel much better if the 18z gfs and 00z euro come in with more precipitation on tonight’s runs.

Edit: 00Z gfs
 
ATLwxfan said:
The negativity is funny but unfortunately probably makes more sense as an outcome for a clipper. I’d also say the GFS has trended dry the last few runs.


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It has, but the Euro has trended wetter and has also brought the idea of a second wave. I know it sounds like I’m favoring models that best fit mby, which I am, but let’s say the GFS was wetter and the Euro was drier, I would be much much more concerned. If the Euro continues to trend wetter then I’m going to favor it even more because the GFS has shown a tendency to be late to the party many times.
 
I think it should also be mentioned that we're still over 3 days away from the event. There will still be model (and mood) swings every 6 hours. Just set your expectations low and see what happens.

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The 18z GEFS looks drier than the 12z by about a 1/10th of an inch of qpf across most areas. Not a trend you want to see. Hopefully future runs will beef back up. Those of you with access to the individual members, I'm curious if any develop a low with enhanced precip similar to the Euro. If that doesn't happen, the moisture could be limited and we may see further reduction in totals in future runs.
 
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