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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

Interestingly, this week and next week were depicted as very cold for the eastern US by the long range models a few weeks back. I guess that those fantasy range forecasts can at least show trends.

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Huntsville disco this afternoon.

Issued at 250 PM CST Fri Jan 25 2019

Uncertain is a good way to sum up the extended forecast at this
point. A strong and very cold upper level system will start to make
it`s way SE Monday into Tuesday. Good warm air advection ahead of
this feature will allow temps Monday afternoon to warm into mid to
possibly upper 50s. This will occur ahead of a Arctic front currently
forecast to move in Monday night into Tuesday morning. Timing
differences between the latest operational runs of both the GFS/ECMWF
continue to result in some uncertainty and lower confidence for the
forecasted QPF and any snowfall amounts. Much of the precip will be
post-frontal and based on the thermal structure of the front and
temperatures aloft, this will allow for a very quick transition to
snow on Tuesday. The biggest issue is when will the heaviest precip
occur, the GFS would suggest much of the snow occurring shortly
before sunrise Tuesday. While the ECMWF is slower and would put the
best chances for snow after sunrise Tuesday. In either case we are
looking at impacts to morning commutes Tuesday morning. With an
extended warm period from Saturday through Monday, road surfaces
should be on the warmer side and any initial snow might melt.

Ensemble members still indicate varying solutions for QPF and
snowfall amounts for Tuesday. Sticking closer to the means but also
recognizing that some of the outliers could be pulling the ensemble
means higher have tried to nudge amounts a bit lower due to the
lingering uncertainty. This would put snowfall amounts generally
around 1 inch for much of the TN Valley. Some of the higher terrain
in TN and NE AL could see upwards 1.5 inches. Want to reinforce this
point though: the confidence in those amounts is low. We still have
awhile to go and would like to see better consistency in the
guidance before we could increase our confidence. For what it is
worth, ensemble probabilities of 1 inch of snow have steadily been
increasing.
 
Fairly healthy QPF from the WPC. 1/4"+ for most of the board west of the Apps with a max of 1/2"+ in the higher elevations in southeast TN. Good trends.

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DarkKnight said:
Huntsville disco this afternoon.

Issued at 250 PM CST Fri Jan 25 2019

Uncertain is a good way to sum up the extended forecast at this
point. A strong and very cold upper level system will start to make
it`s way SE Monday into Tuesday. Good warm air advection ahead of
this feature will allow temps Monday afternoon to warm into mid to
possibly upper 50s. This will occur ahead of a Arctic front currently
forecast to move in Monday night into Tuesday morning. Timing
differences between the latest operational runs of both the GFS/ECMWF
continue to result in some uncertainty and lower confidence for the
forecasted QPF and any snowfall amounts. Much of the precip will be
post-frontal and based on the thermal structure of the front and
temperatures aloft, this will allow for a very quick transition to
snow on Tuesday. The biggest issue is when will the heaviest precip
occur, the GFS would suggest much of the snow occurring shortly
before sunrise Tuesday. While the ECMWF is slower and would put the
best chances for snow after sunrise Tuesday. In either case we are
looking at impacts to morning commutes Tuesday morning. With an
extended warm period from Saturday through Monday, road surfaces
should be on the warmer side and any initial snow might melt.

Ensemble members still indicate varying solutions for QPF and
snowfall amounts for Tuesday. Sticking closer to the means but also
recognizing that some of the outliers could be pulling the ensemble
means higher have tried to nudge amounts a bit lower due to the
lingering uncertainty. This would put snowfall amounts generally
around 1 inch for much of the TN Valley. Some of the higher terrain
in TN and NE AL could see upwards 1.5 inches. Want to reinforce this
point though: the confidence in those amounts is low. We still have
awhile to go and would like to see better consistency in the
guidance before we could increase our confidence. For what it is
worth, ensemble probabilities of 1 inch of snow have steadily been
increasing.
Click to expand...

Ground temps for the win !!!


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From the New Orleans NWS office:

The big story going into next week for the country will be the punch of cold air expected to move into the eastern United States and the chance of snow across the Deep South. A front will move through the region on Tuesday. Guidance suggest that there could be some moisture available as the front comes through and with cold air rushing in behind it for a changeover to wintry precipitation as the front exits the area. I have not included this in the official forecast as the guidance is hard pressed to suggest wintry precip this far south. The GFS is warmer than the ECMWF. I have tried to maintain a blend of guidance. Will have to watch this as more guidance comes in house, but for right now we are expecting all rain for our immediate area. If the GFS show a colder signal over the next few days, my confidence would increase at the possibility of wintry precip in our area...however...models do sometimes struggle with cold air progression and depth.

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