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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

SoutheastRidge said:
Serious question. What's it gonna take for Atlanta to get a major 6"+ event out of this ? Do we need a low pressure forming to enhance the precip ?
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It would take a low pressure forming along the front. But like someone else side on here you want to keep the low pressure weak. If the low gets to strong you will have to start worrying about WAA..
 
FFC:
The longwave trough deepens again over the southeast on Monday night
into Tuesday. As the surface high pressure moves out of the area, a
sharp cold front will approach and is expected to enter the forecast
area on Tuesday morning and move southeastward through Georgia
throughout the day on Tuesday. The main concern with this system is
how much precipitation will coincide with the cold air on the back
side of the system. GFS and ECMWF models both indicate that the bulk
of the precipitation associated with this system will pass through
our area throughout the day on Tuesday. However, there are still
slight disagreements between model solutions, as ECMWF offers a
wetter, but slightly faster solution than the GFS. The possibility
still exists of the cold front slowing and becoming elongated and
moving through the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday, so I
maintained some slight chance PoPs in on Wednesday to account for
this possibility. Overall, the upper level flow does not indicate
deepest moisture aligning with the sub-freezing temperatures behind
the front. Nonetheless, some wintry mix and a transition to light
snow is possible with some shallow moisture behind the cold front,
but confidence remains low.
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For Carolina folks, if we can get the front to slow down about another 6-9 hours ish and push the timing of some of the heavier precipitation to the overnight or early morning hours, it seems feasible that more of the board in this area would see more snow and accumulation efficiency would also improve. However that would come at a cost to areas further west. Diurnal timing alone will possess winners and losers here.
 
ATLwxfan said:
That’s probably generous. Looks like maybe a dusting inside the perimeter. But that could change. Maybe the 0z will bring the goods.


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As someone who lives ITP, I wouldn't expect more than a dusting to a half inch based on what we've seen thus far. Might even be better to temper the expectations even less to say maybe we'll see some flakes falling. Just not quite enough to suck this ITP skeptic in at this point.
 
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Showmeyourtds said:
As someone who lives ITP, I wouldn't expect more than a dusting to a half inch based on what we've seen thus far. Might even be better to temper the expectations even less to say maybe we'll see some flakes falling. Just not quite enough to suck this ITP skeptic in at this point.
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I’m not skeptical for any other reason than that clippers don’t really get to us.


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I know this is the long range NAM but here the precip map for Tuesday morning.
nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png
 
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