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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

With a sounding like this temps would crash once precip starts falling, look at that convective sounding, 100jkg of sfc/mu CAPE, if it was summer/spring I’d be worried about severe weather with your typical higher temps/dp’s 0467DF42-5443-4284-90FC-B49115547E4A.png
 
3z sunday sref means snowfall of 26 members
Evergreen, Al .23
Atlanta .36
Montgomery .46
Troy .47
Meridian .86
Tuscaloosa .93
Columbus, Ga. 1.29
Rome, Ga. 1.4
Anniston 1.42
Birmingham 1.44
Ft. Payne 1.49
Gadsden 1.52
Chattanooga 1.87
Cullman 2.02
Dalton, Ga. 2.16
Muscle Shoals 2.43
Tupelo 2.47
Huntsville 2.5
Crossville, Tn. 2.75
Memphis 2.95
Jackson, Tn. 3.31
Nashville 3.52
Knoxville 3.54
 
from memphis:
the greatest snowfall
amounts are likely to be over north MS. In general, we`re
forecasting snowfall accumulations up to 2", with localized higher
amounts

Portions of the Mid-South are likely to
reach Advisory (and possibly even Warning) criteria snow totals
with this event, but we`re still looking out 48 hours. Will hold
off on any headlines at this time but will issue a Special Weather
Statement highlighting the anticipated impacts later this
morning.
 
from bhm
Snowfall amounts up to 2 inches and impacts to travel appear
possible near and north of a line from Demopolis to Anniston.
Snowfall amounts and impacts could be increased and expanded
southward in future updates.
 
GFS looks good, better than Euro anyway
 
PER A FRIEND AT NWS BMX THIS IS THE TIME FRAME TO START FOCUSING ON THE THE SHORT RANGE MODELS..
 
Just watched our local weekend met on our local ABC affiliate, channel 9. He's calling for rain overnight Monday with crashing temps and a brief period of snow showers around rush hour Tuesday morning. Total snow accumulation is 0.0. He said our main issue will be the roads freezing over from the rain and sudden drops in temps.

NBC local channel 3 is calling for rain overnight changing to snow around 4a.m. with accumulations of 1.1". To our south 25 miles in Dalton, GA she is estimating 2.2".

Right now it's a wait and see moment. The 0.0 was as conservative as you can get.

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DixieBlizzard said:
That map puts my area under the 95% of at least 1 inch. As @EmersonGA alluded to earlier, the Rome, Emesron, Cartersville, and Canton areas do quite well and may do better in this setup than anyone further east although they won't be denied either (I don't think). This thing isn't going to be huge but for this season, it will seem GREAT! Wake up @WXinCanton and @LithiaWx
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I'm awake! Looks like FFC agrees with you.

StormTotalSnowWeb.png
 
BMX rolling with the NAM, SREF, and other short range models over the GFS, Euro

I am
concerned that global operational and ensemble guidance will
remain inconsistent for the next 24 hours, giving short lead time
on a more significant event. We`ll continue to closely watch the
NAM, SREF, and other hi-res guidance which may give us an earlier
indication of which way this event will trend.
Click to expand...
 
WXinCanton said:
Well don't look at it then, I was just sharing info. SMH.. And not so sure I would hang my hat on the WRF.
Click to expand...

That’s not how I meant it don’t get overly sensitive. I hope you get more than what FFC says! I’m just saying a lot can change. Also they seem to like the WRF for better or for worse.


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ATLwxfan said:
That’s not how I meant it don’t get overly sensitive. I hope you get more than what FFC says! I’m just saying a lot can change. Also they seem to like the WRF for better or for worse.


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Click to expand...
I hadn't had my coffee yet, I'm allowed to get overly sensitive :) I think their map is overdone IMO. Who knows at this point, impossible to nail it down when we are talking tenth's of QPF still 2 days out.
 
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