Based on the time he posted that last night that was correct. Today will be a different story if the GEFS is right. Estimates are also lower with only 10:1 ratios as well.
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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
FFC:
Never assume that, you will never be disappointed if they arent, and surprised if they are.
Ron Burgundy
Member
As usual Glenn is talking out of both sides of his mouth. He posted this on FB yesterday.
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Stormlover
Member
I'm not assuming. I'm going by bufkit data that has consistently shown as high as 20:1 here, and many periods of 15:1 or 16:1. Thank you though, for assuming I was assuming. This is also which Kuchera snow maps have been running higher than 10:1. I was only pointing out that that was only 10:1. No biggie.
Flurry
Member
[
Mr. Burns sounds like a real piece of work...Please move to banter if you need to
Mr. Burns sounds like a real piece of work...Please move to banter if you need to
Yep everyone just assumes they will higher . Horrible mistake
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I guess since it’s getting closer models are starting to realize some smaller mesoscale factors that could actually enhance snow rates like for example a lot of lift in the DGZ, some small instability allowing for more convective snow bands, no wonder I think it will just increase
Stormlover
Member
wrong, wasn't assuming, I was looking at data
this is from the 6Z, showing 15-17:1 during the peak, on the 0Z it was up to 20:1
190129/1000Z 100 33011KT 32.1F SNOW 17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075 17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
190129/1100Z 101 33012KT 29.7F SNOW 15:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.068 16:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0
190129/1200Z 102 33012KT 28.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 15:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0
STORM6
Member
I agree with you stormlover. Ain't nobody assuming. By Sunday night storm5 will be saying "I will be making a drive to HSV"
Stormlover
Member
LOL, he's fighting it in his mind right now. He'll be on the way to Grant ;-)
Showmeyourtds
Member
It is this kind of stuff by TV mets that create mass weather hysteria...Spann did this from time to time when I lived in Birmingham and then the crazies start coming out with IMBY questions.
Still convinced that Spann has investments in dairy & wheat futures.
But to the point above that @Myfrotho704_ made about the growth zone- What are lapse rates looking like? I'm not sure how much forcing will be around, but I think that might be a valid concern. Could we use the shorter range models to get an idea of how heavy this precip would be as the event draws closer?
Wulfer
Member
What's the Bukfit data for CHA sorry I'm at work. This data would help plan patient situations.
There won't be a constant snow ratio during this event. The snow ratios are going to vary. You know how you get some hefty rainfall rates ahead of a cold front during the spring? This is going to be the same kind of thing, but with snow. So yeah, there will be some convective snow showers, which there's no way to know where exactly those convective snow showers will be. Perhaps the NAM or HRRR will be able to help determine that once the event is hours away.
Parker
Member
Icon pops a low....
Popping a SLP over LA/MS border on 12z ICON.
If there will be a low along the front, it will ride along with it, as the front progresses east. The low will not be a southern slider.
Parker
Member
This could be a big dog incoming. Popping a low will change everything and make this a lot bigger deal if true.
tractor girl
Member
well hello there
