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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

GeorgiaGirl said:
Just realized I posted the wrong maps. :fp: Here's the actual 10:1 and Kuchera.

View attachment 13595

View attachment 13596

This is wild, sheesh.
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Hmmm, a met on Americanwx forum posted this 4 hours ago:

The GFS made an attempt to move that way. Oddly enough the GFS 3 days ago looked the best of any model for this event and go figure it’s looked the lousiest the last day or so along with the GGEM. The closest analog showing is 12/19/00. It appears to me that east and southeast sides of Atlanta got 2-3 inches with it but oddly enough west of there got hardly anything
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He also posted this:

The ensemble members and the NAM and EURO dig things enough so that the front is clearing almost entirely in advance of all the precipitation in many areas. It’s entirely possible both models are not snowy enough across the Gulf states because at this range even the higher res NAM and Euro tend to underestimate low level bleeding of cold air. The few hours places like BHM or ATL show rain basically everything but 940mb and down is below 0C. Very possible that would end up colder if you took the NAM/Euro solutions and played them out exactly
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These maps just have an odd look to them. Maybe it will be the hit or miss type of snow showers where some areas get a few inches and areas not far away get nothing. Kind of like in the summer with hit or miss rain ?
 
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Huntsville NWS really amping up
This could translate into some stronger snowfall rates maybe upwards
of 2-4 in/hr with any possible mesoscale banding. With a potential
window of maybe 1-3 hours of these higher snowfall rates we are
starting to nudge up snowfall amounts. GEFS plumes and EPS ensemble
members are all starting to trend upwards with snowfall amounts as
well. So, have gone that route and nudged snow amounts higher with
much of the area seeing at least 1 inch of snow and most likely
between 1.5 to 2 inches. Due to the lingering uncertainty in the
timing and potential for banding it`s completely possible that we
could see upwards of 3-4 inches but have kept values below that for
now. Want to see another model run or two before going any higher
than 2.5 inches.
 
Here's why the NAM was much better. We had a neutrally tilted trough instead of a positively tilted one over GA. If anything should be watched, it should be the storm on the 28th that Webber pointed out about the trend on. If we see a similar trend in response, we could get a bigger storm like advertised. If I were you, and it sounds painful, root for a big E NC storm! It'll help set the stage for a better storm for us over here!
namconus_z500_vort_us_50.png
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Hmmm, a met on Americanwx forum posted this 4 hours ago:



He also posted this:
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Interesting insight, That will be a key thing to watch is whether or not the arctic front itself sweeps through south and east well ahead of the precip and the CAA bleeds through just as quickly. Even on the 18z NAM as the heavy precip moves into ATL the temp drops nearly 20 degrees in a 3hr period (46 to 27) That's gonna cause some serious issues especially because that NAM run has the changeover occuring around evening rush hour.
 
When it comes to arctic fronts, it seems to me that the models often seem to rush the cold air. I've seen many times the cold air come in slower than was forecast.
 
FWIW. The last rain event here, the NAM was too low by half an inch of precipitation 12 hours out.
 
Could be the weenie in me but I just don’t believe the snow maps from the gfs. NGA Gets a good burst of snow and it barely shows a dusting. Im
Hoping the Nam is onto something. I like 1-2” here
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Could be the weenie in me but I just don’t believe the snow maps from the gfs. NGA Gets a good burst of snow and it barely shows a dusting. Im
Hoping the Nam is onto something. I like 1-2” here
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Haha, Nam/FV3/ sucky icon has accumulation for me, but gfs has me 2 counties from seeing 2 in. and gfs shows heavy burst but a dusting also.
 
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