Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

[WxWatch]

Yeah FV3 is super dry.

It is much drier than other models. What the FV3 shows could be right though. I feel like the moisture will fall apart as it progresses east due to the mountains, and much drier air filtering in. It's a clipper type system, which these type of systems can bring a good amount of snow for some, some will get very little. I say the snowfall amounts will average 1-3" typical of these type of systems.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Still plenty of time to get these to swing into a big dog for chunk of SE.... lil disappointed in the 00z Euro run for GA but it was only one run

I was a little more encouraged, based on the moisture push. Might need help with temps if you’re wanting a high ratio event like last year, but I think the chances of flakes flying are looking good.

 

[whizrtr]

BMX favoring the snowier GFS solution:

The system approaching from the northwest on Monday night will beassociated with a rather cold airmass surging southward through the Plains and Midwest, and the temperature gradient is expected to strengthen along the cold front as it moves into Northwest Alabama early Tuesday morning. West-southwest 850-500mb should
result in quality moisture advection, and post-frontal precipitation is likely to break out with the aid of isentropic lift and an approaching upper-level jet max. Operational and
ensemble guidance are in relatively good agreement with this scenario, which may feature a transition from rain to snow on
Tuesday morning especially along and north of I-20. The ECMWF may be placing too much emphasis on digging the very southern end of
the trough. This would result in a more neutral tilt as the trough passes through Alabama and less overlap of cold air with precipitation. For this forecast package the positively-tilted and
snowier GFS solution is favored, and light accumulations appear possible across our northwestern counties as temperatures plunge
into the upper 20s. Dry conditions should return for Tuesday night through Thursday with the potential for temperatures falling into
the teens on Wednesday morning and/or Thursday morning for a good portion of the forecast area.

 

[stormcentral]

WTVC News Channel 9

 

[Brick Tamland]

Holy Cow what an increase 6z gefs

But but but, 6z fv3 came out better than 0z. Nice 6z trend so far

Yes, nice increase here for both the GEFS and FV3. Guess we just have to keep watching it. Shows you that you're never out of the game until the very end.

 

[cyclogent]

......

Morristown is biting and they are usually very conservative

Yep, they're thinking 2-4 most locations, with more in the mountains. Probably 1-2 for CHA proper. But with the temps, it wont matter if it's 1 or 4, schools will likely be closed Tuesday-Friday. Local mets on board as well.

 

[snowman72]

......


Yep, they're thinking 2-4 most locations, with more in the mountains. Probably 1-2 for CHA proper. But with the temps, it wont matter if it's 1 or 4, schools will likely be closed Tuesday-Friday. Local mets on board as well.

You are correct Morristown always last to respond

 

[Weatherlover92]

As accu35 said definite increase from 00z to 6z GEFS. There must of been some big hit(s) in the ensemble members. I'll check and edit it in this post.

EDIT: Looks like I was right, there were quite a few widespread hits that I don't think would disappoint most of us on this board.

 

[ATLwxfan]

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[NoSnowATL]

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He is right, snow showers seem like the most likely outcome for Metro Atlanta. We have the cold just no storm with real potential.


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[Snowflowxxl]

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LMAO! 2014 part 2 incoming now!

 

[Weatherlover92]

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It's happening for sure now, lock it in!

 

[ForsythSnow]

As accu35 said definite increase from 00z to 6z GEFS. There must of been some big hit(s) in the ensemble members. I'll check and edit it in this post.

EDIT: Looks like I was right, there were quite a few widespread hits that I don't think would disappoint most of us on this board.

20 for 20 and 12 for 20 for 2"+ looking even better for here and ATL. Models are looking wetter and that's probably what this run picked up on. If this trend keeps up we may see another increase. I'm curious how these larger members are set up too. Looks to me the system resembles more of a southern slider than a frontal passage.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

It's happening for sure now, lock it in!

Hard for me to disagree with ol' Glenn at the present time with regard to next week.

However, based on how inconsistent the models have been in the long range, I wouldn't discount anything else popping up later on. There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason to this winter thus far.

 

[Arcc]

As accu35 said definite increase from 00z to 6z GEFS. There must of been some big hit(s) in the ensemble members. I'll check and edit it in this post.

EDIT: Looks like I was right, there were quite a few widespread hits that I don't think would disappoint most of us on this board.

I bet if you look at time frames, that is two separate hits. That dry band between the two snow bands make me think so. The FV3 was closer to another hit after the front.

 

[Weatherlover92]

20 for 20 and 12 for 20 for 2"+ looking even better for here and ATL. Models are looking wetter and that's probably what this run picked up on. If this trend keeps up we may see another increase. I'm curious how these larger members are set up too. Looks to me the system resembles more of a southern slider than a frontal passage.

Looking at a couple of the ensemble members, it looks like some go full out Miller A Gulf Storm. Particularly member 12 and 18,18 doesn't end the wintry precip across the entire SE region until Friday morning! So maybe te GEFS is gaining steam on a potential secondary low developing?

 

[accu35]

I bet if you look at time frames, that is two separate hits. That dry band between the two snow bands make me think so. The FV3 was closer to another hit after the front.

Still looked great with first hit

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Looking at a couple of the ensemble members, it looks like some go full out Miller A Gulf Storm. Particularly member 12 and 18,18 doesn't end the wintry precip across the entire SE region until Friday morning! So maybe te GEFS is gaining steam on a potential secondary low developing?

Folks further east (like us) would really enjoy that. Would like to see more than 2 members start keying in on that solution. Would also be nice to see a major operational run start hinting more at that like the 0z Doc run earlier.

 

[accu35]

Looking at a couple of the ensemble members, it looks like some go full out Miller A Gulf Storm. Particularly member 12 and 18,18 doesn't end the wintry precip across the entire SE region until Friday morning! So maybe te GEFS is gaining steam on a potential secondary low developing?

I wonder if the secondary low could speed up little faster to joint into one large storm? I know the second wave is a day away from the first one, so it would have to speed up fast.

 

[Stormlover]

As accu35 said definite increase from 00z to 6z GEFS. There must of been some big hit(s) in the ensemble members. I'll check and edit it in this post.

EDIT: Looks like I was right, there were quite a few widespread hits that I don't think would disappoint most of us on this board.

and that's only 10:1..ratios are going to be higher