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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

An actual surface low in a prime spot to give much more snow.

This run is the only one that has actually excited me all the way over this way with this potential event thus far.
 
Winter Storm said:
Break (SOMETHING BIGGER) down for us Arcc. Give us a little detail!:D
Click to expand...

Well for instance the s/w over the Midwest is still positive and digging before it phases with all the energy in the upper midwest. Without a phase or with a later phase, the s/w could dig into the Gulf and probably fire up a low pressure with could really add to the character of the system itself. Would probably not benefit most of us, but it could the Carolinas. I do remember some of the ensembles showing the second wave hitting these areas. Or does the wave flatten out and lead to a solution that the 18z FV3 shown.

The key is there is still a ton of spread with lots of moving parts and solutions.
 
icon_asnow_seus_41.png
 
Morristown is biting and they are usually very conservative


Usually conservative Morristown is biting

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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785 FXUS64 KMRX 250829 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 329 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019 .
LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)The main weather feature of interest will be a stronger short-wave moving southeast from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes/lower Ohio Valley late Monday through Tuesday. The northern stream wave will phase with a southern stream jet over the lower Mississippi River Valley pulling moisture northeastward into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. A strong arctic front will sweep through the region sometime Tuesday. The GFS is the fast and pulls the front into the area by 12Z, while the ECMWF is slower and more toward 18Z. Either way the precipitation will likely begin as rain (rain/snow higher terrain), but quickly transition to snow. Strong jet dynamics with this short-wave with deep lift for about 6 hours. Snow accumulations are looking more likely with this system, even across the Tennessee Valley. Since this system is several days away, snowfall forecast will likely change, but currently 2 to 4 inches is possible most locations with higher amounts across the higher terrain. Additional light snowfall is possible Tuesday night. For mid to late week, a cold arctic high will build into the southern Appalachians with very cold temperatures building into the region. Dangerous wind chills will be a concern. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 38 23 46 32 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 22 43 31 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 35 21 42 31 / 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 18 39 26 / 10 10 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ CD/DH

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FV3 is a outliner for now, Gfs/euro/icon Much more moisture to work with
 
Still plenty of time to get these to swing into a big dog for chunk of SE.... lil disappointed in the 00z Euro run for GA but it was only one run
 
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