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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

BMX discussion...

“Looking at the latest guidance this afternoon, the GFS has trended
more amplified since yesterday bringing it more line with other
guidance, with stronger height falls and the left-exit region of an
upper jet streak indicating more synoptic ascent. So it has trended
upward on snowfall amounts but remains a couple hours faster with
the wave. The ECMWF did come down a little bit with QPF in the cool
sector with some QPF farther south robbing the moisture farther
north, which is something to watch but not ready to buy into that
yet. Run to run model commentary aside, trends in the model
consensus and ensembles support nudging snowfall accumulations in
our forecast up a bit, and also extending accumulations further to
the south. This results in accumulations in the 1-2 inch range
roughly along and north of I-20, around an inch down to a Demopolis
to Jemison to Wedowee line, and accumulations of a quarter to half
inch as far south as Selma to Alexander City. This lines up well
with the European ensemble mean but is a bit above the GEFS and SREF
ensemble means. Some three inch amounts are possible along/north of
I-20 due to a quick burst of strong lift in a saturated DGZ, but
confidence in placement of heavier bands is too low to include in
the forecast at this time. Will also have to watch for any waves of
low pressure along the front. It`s still too early for any
advisories/watches at this time. Temperatures along the I-85
corridor still look too warm for accumulation at this time, but
trends will need to watched closely.”
 
local mets here along the gulf coast of Alabama and NW Fla starting to mention flurries possible on Tuesday...short lived as will be moving out pretty quickly. Rain w/ a few big snow flakes mixed in is what our local met said. Will be fun to watch considering its during the daytime hours.. Will be 2 years in a row big flakes have fell along the gulf coast IF it happens.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
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For those at home that are paying attention, watch that blob that comes out of GOM... that is likely telling you we will prob see a very weak surface reflection. Another thing, I really think someone over mid AL and possibly ATL to MCN could see a nice pop if we can push the cold air in quicker. That’s a big if, but we have more moisture to work with as well.
 
Trof is getting ever so slightly sharper on each run, PV has had a north trend on the gfs aswell, this just leaves more room for a sfc low pressure to develop along the frontal boundary
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This just in from NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge:

DISCUSSION...
Making a long story short...a benign weather pattern is set
through Monday ahead of an arctic front that will usher in much
colder air for the middle of the week and a chance of snow for
much of the southern United States. The arctic cold front is expected
to reach the Ark-La-Tex region Monday afternoon which may cause a
few showers in northwest Louisiana. This front will cause a
complicated forecast for Monday night into Tuesday in regards to
precipitation and precipitation type. Guidance differs in the
amount of precipitation available with this front as cold air
rushes in behind the front. Most guidance supports a brief period
of rain/snow mix or all snow as the precipitation ends. The
portion of the forecast area with the highest probability of
seeing this wintry precipitation is along and north of the I-12
corridor and into inland coastal Mississippi (north of I-10)
during the period from late Monday night to late morning Tuesday.
Guidance still points to some possible accumulations in southwest
MS...the ECMWF being the most aggressive with 2 inches and the
GFS coming in around an inch. With an anticipated warm ground
during any snowfall, it is not likely the snowfall rates would be
sufficient for much in the way of accumulation...but have added
some light accumulations to the forecast for SW Mississippi. Will
have to continue to monitor the accumulations as that may have to
be expanded further south into Louisiana. Either way everyone
should stay aware of the changing forecast for Monday night into
Tuesday.
 
As always a few degrees is going to make a huge difference. Still a question regarding the depth of the cold air. James Spann mentions this in his afternoon blog. If temps only fall into the low 30s during the day on Tuesday then there won't be nearly as much impact.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
As always a few degrees is going to make a huge difference. Still a question regarding the depth of the cold air. James Spann mentions this in his afternoon blog. If temps only fall into the low 30s during the day on Tuesday then there won't be nearly as much impact.
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As much as I'd like to see accumulating snow down here, I really don't want to see major issues with icy roadways.
 
deltadog03 said:
For those at home that are paying attention, watch that blob that comes out of GOM... that is likely telling you we will prob see a very weak surface reflection. Another thing, I really think someone over mid AL and possibly ATL to MCN could see a nice pop if we can push the cold air in quicker. That’s a big if, but we have more moisture to work with as well.
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Plus you can see a bit of a "kink" in the rain/snow line as it gets to the I 85 area in GA. . May be a wave or the influence of warmer air temps near surface
 
deltadog03 said:
For those at home that are paying attention, watch that blob that comes out of GOM... that is likely telling you we will prob see a very weak surface reflection. Another thing, I really think someone over mid AL and possibly ATL to MCN could see a nice pop if we can push the cold air in quicker. That’s a big if, but we have more moisture to work with as well.
Click to expand...
Yeah the NAM does this too. Really something to watch because I believe this is what would give a greater amount of snow and IF it becomes a solid low, we could see a great amount of snow like the NAM advertises.
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_fh57-75.gif
 
A sfc low like the NAM shows would help many areas east of the apps, even if the snow is short lived, a quick deform like band can quickly drop a inch to a few inches since rates can overcome wet ground, this applies more for 85-north tho
 
Why are some of these models developing dry slots? The one the NAM had running due north into N AL was pretty bad and the FV3 has one that’s worse running SW to NE.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
A sfc low like the NAM shows would help many areas east of the apps, even if the snow is short lived, a quick deform like band can quickly drop a inch to a few inches since rates can overcome wet ground, this applies more for 85-north tho
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Not at 45 degrees
 
Look how the euro has trended and is likely telling us about some changes to the location of the PV
B51CF0A5-C2D7-4D18-9763-559D64F62634.gif
 
I wonder in this setup if elevated thunderstorms can happen before the changeover for some areas, with a strong artic front like that and decent lift and also decent mid lapses it seems possible, happens in the plains
 
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