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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

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We need to set expectations really low and remember these often dry up as we move forward in time .

I’d be tickled to death with 1-2 inches followed by plummeting temps


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Sorry I didn't have access to the FV3 maps like darkknight did so I couldn't see it for myself. From today's trends it is very apparent that is no longer a solution that is on the table but nonetheless MS, TN, AL, and NW GA look decent right now
 
Sorry I didn't have access to the FV3 maps like darkknight did so I couldn't see it for myself. From today's trends it is very apparent that is no longer a solution that is on the table but nonetheless MS, TN, AL, and NW GA look decent right now

@Storm5 how likely would you think a low could form on the cold front and make this a bigger deal??

If I had to guess myself. I would say maybe 30 percent chance. Maybe.
 
@Storm5 how likely would you think a low could form on the cold front and make this a bigger deal??

If I had to guess myself. I would say maybe 30 percent chance. Maybe.

Depends on what you consider a bigger deal to be . I honestly believe 1-2 totals with crashing temps is a huge deal . But if your looking for like 3-5 inch totals I’d say I’m at 12 percent


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Man I just looked at the 12z euro and I can’t believe how identical it is to the 18z gfs for next week at least. It has the big storm around the same time on Monday night and also has the multiple smaller disturbances later in the week just like the 18z gfs. What could go wrong? Lol
 
Does anyone know why that happens.??

Losing the energy from this clipper going to the northeast??
The mountains. It’s very easy to get cold into TN, AL and MS, sometimes bitter cold, while E of the mountains are in the 40s/50s and downslope dries up the precip
 
Actually think someone said that this is an energy transfer situation. Unless we can get a low to develop at the base of the trough, this is a no dice outside of the western part of the SE and maybe parts of NW Georgia and a part of NC.
 
Actually think someone said that this is an energy transfer situation. Unless we can get a low to develop at the base of the trough, this is a no dice outside of the western part of the SE and maybe parts of NW Georgia and a part of NC.
This is correct. So far, no credible evidence that a wave will develop along the tail end of the front. Back in the day, that kind of thing wasn’t so uncommon. Now, you hardly ever see it. Not sure why.
 
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