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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

Storm5 said:
I think people’s expectations are too high . One maybe two inches is far more realistic at this point . As has been mentioned already these things tend to dry up the closer we get
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I don't think so. An inch on top of ice is perfect. I would be happy.
 
How does this kinda setup trend better for GA, SC, NC? I’m not sure how


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Now that above by the Euro, with the cold that comes in right after, that certainly looks like quite an impact event for the areas getting it if that were to be real.
 
Just looking at the GFS, FV3 and Euro, I have a hunch there probably be something around the 31st.
 

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Arcc said:
Just looking at the GFS, FV3 and Euro, I have a hunch there probably be something around the 31st.
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I can’t see what’s going on with my crappy maps but it looks like a 1010 Lp entering Baja?
 
Surface temps as heaviest stuff is coming down and then coming to an end...

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hmmmm...this one is still so difficult for me to see where we get much, if anything. However....I do like seeing the models showing an increase at times. anyone have the H5 Vort maps for this from the DOC? please
 
Can someone post f132 from the Euro showing the dominant P-type? I'm curious to see what happens to the moisture as the system continues ESE. Based on the accumulation maps it must go poof! Thanks!
 
Timing of the front during the middle of the day + blocking of low-level cold air by the Appalachian mountains is what hurts the snow/sleet totals in the Carolinas, need to see a weak wave form along the front and throw more moisture back into the cold air to get something more substantial. North-central Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, & Tennessee plus the mountains of NC are obviously favored in a setup like this.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Timing of the front + blocking of low-level cold air by the Appalachian mountains is what hurts the snow/sleet totals in the Carolinas, need to see a weak wave form along the front and throw more moisture back into the cold air to get something more substantial.
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Is there a chance this shows up in the coming days on the models? I know it has been hinting at it on and off but has disappeared today.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Timing of the front during the middle of the day + blocking of low-level cold air by the Appalachian mountains is what hurts the snow/sleet totals in the Carolinas, need to see a weak wave form along the front and throw more moisture back into the cold air to get something more substantial. North-central Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, & Tennessee plus the mountains of NC are obviously favored in a setup like this.
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Folks in Georgia on this board would need this to happen also.

Maybe that or a more juiced lower level jet to enhance precip, like the 1/16-17 event last year. 1-3 along the i-85 corridor
 
Robert West said:
Is there a chance this shows up in the coming days on the models? I know it has been hinting at it on and off but has disappeared today.
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It's hard to predict because the models like the GFS & Euro have cold biases over areas w/ snow cover due to surface parameterizations in the models which could mean they're overdoing the snow here, and frontal wave if one formed would be weak & somewhat reliant on the distribution of diabatic heating within the overall frontal boundary which is hard to capture this far in advance or even more than 2-3 days out.
 
Rick said:
Why did the weather channel just take the snow out of my area in north Alabama?
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Using the weather channel for any type of forecast outside of 2-3 days is not ideal. Those forecasts change by the hour and are crap. I would'nt pay any attention to that.
 
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