Agreed. Looked quite close to the 00z CMC. I will caution that the RGEM, like the NAM, can be a little unreliable beyond about 60 hours (NAM more like 48 or maybe 24 hours haha).
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Catfish
Member
What’s the second chance? Models picking up on another system? I’ve noticed that in my forecast as well…shows up then disappears.
12z AIFS euro .. coastal storm 
Euro AI said no. Stop watching
wow
Member
Sure does. It was going to be the most amped solution in this model suite by far.
How to the RGEM usually do in these situations? Does it do as well as the regular cmc with N/S dominant systems?
You are right...also the RGEM did very well for last weeks event. Was it perfect...no...but was very good.
wow
Member
@54 the GFS is more consolidated and a tad stronger with the wave over the NW
weather bubba
Member
That 1041mb high pressure system parked in West Virginia probably explains why this model keeps the moisture off of the Southeast coast for the most part. If that high were to be weaker than advertised it might give many of us a better chance to see some winter precipitation.
wow
Member
GFS a little further W with the wave.. consistent with the RDPS. Gotta give it some room to develop, then pour all in from the n/s when it rounds the curb.
Need to watch this feature this run. Further SW so far 
beanskip
Member
The n/s still way behind where the RGEM had it.
EDIT: But, improvement from 12z GFS run, so that's good.
EDIT: But, improvement from 12z GFS run, so that's good.
wow
Member
Was just about to post that.. that's the ping pong ball that's gotta drop in the bucket as it turns in...
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Maybe that will pull the system north?
she sharp. Looks like it might wanna do that swing thing again
wow
Member
yeah it's still not quite picking it up. GIven that it's coming out of CANADA, i'll defer to them to tell us how it's to be modeled.
It’s not uncommon to see a lot of those 1040mb+ super highs in the medium to long range end up verifying significantly weaker, too. Usually, that’s bad but maybe not this time.
Yes I am looking at that too! Watching it now but also in future runs to see if it starts forcing northern stream to dig more south and west.
beanskip
Member
Despite some upper level improvement, sensible weather looks very similar to 12z run, through 93 hours.
iGRXY
Member
Another tick northwest
wow
Member
Well the sfc low and precip is a bit further north vs 12z .. might be a better run (for me at least)
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Inch by inch.
iGRXY
Member
It’s never a lock that we’re cold enough
Mixing issues south where there weren’t any to start the day is sometimes a leading indicator
iGRXY
Member
Said it 1000x but this just screams over performer on the NW side
I think this is going to be a big run for C/E NC (more so than 12z).
I think this may be the best advice you can give other than “there has to be cold air first”
Always always worry about temps. Whether that’s sfc or 850 or both depends on the storm
ChattaVOL
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
GFS is coming too north, too fast for me. We will have temp issues by Sunday night at this rate.
BKWRN29
Member
Leading up to the event, how much more NW shift can we typically expect?
wow
Member
We're transitioning from an overrunning event to a more classic miller A phasing event... losing the extreme cold for more precip to blossom inland.
Saw the 850mb trend first before the QPF and saw much more WAA this run, thought it would translate to more QPF but it didn’t. Weird