• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 21-23 2025

Myfrotho704_ said:
Mid levels warming quick on the GEFS ens along with the tilt just off the coast. QPF is gonna start responding soon. More WAA = more QPF generation View attachment 164737
Click to expand...

92776e3348c26018d39f3751e94491be.gif

Looks like it’s already beginning on the tail end of the precip axis


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Even with the GFS warming, it still could fare well for my area, similar to just a couple of weeks ago when Birmingham and Atlanta was supposed to get mostly sleet and ice and they ended up getting quite a bit of snow. Different setup this time but it could end up verifying colder.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
GFS is coming too north, too fast for me. We will have temp issues by Sunday night at this rate.
Click to expand...
Not with a 1030mb+ high sitting on top of the Mid South...that's why you have -7C 850's down past I20/I85. Its not like we are sitting on the cusp of -1C from I20 north to I40....its going to be cold enough for snow unless you are close to the coast.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Mid levels warming quick on the GEFS ens along with the tilt just off the coast. QPF is gonna start responding soon. More WAA = more QPF generation View attachment 164737
Click to expand...
When you can see the trough axis going negative that defined on an 850mb temp map, you know you are dealing with a STOUT airmass!
 
From NWS Mobile:

Potential for winter weather... After dry conditions on Sunday and
Monday, there remains a potential for winter weather during the day
on Tuesday and into Tuesday evening. I can still see one of three
scenarios playing out for this event and I will once again describe
each scenario individually below:

Scenario 1 (the dry scenario): This scenario would be the `floor` of
the hazardous potential. The surface trough is too far south, or
does not form at all. Very dry air would remain in place, preventing
any precip from forming underneath it. At this point, this solution
is becoming less and less likely due to a vast majority of
deterministic and ensemble guidance now showing at least some sort
of QPF on Tuesday. Still do not want to rule this scenario out,
though, as a few ensemble members and one or two select
deterministic runs have still shown it, but it appears to be a
lowering possibility at the moment.

Scenario 2 (the all-snow scenario): I would still consider this
scenario to be `middle-of-the-road` in terms of hazardous
conditions, although impacts could range from a low-end snow event
to a high-end snow event. In this solution, the surface trough does
begin developing over the Gulf but does not fully develop into a low
until it passes the central part of the Florida peninsula and enters
the western Atlantic. Looking at modeled profiles, WAA will be
occurring around 700mb, but due to the quicker movement of the
synoptic features, it quickly cuts off by the early afternoon,
preventing a `warm nose` from developing aloft and keeping the
entire profile below freezing. This would support a snow-only event
across the area. Now with the dendritic growth zone being saturated
and surface temperatures being quite cold, some areas could see
higher-end amounts of snowfall which could lead to a rather
impactful event. In fact, ensembles paint a roughly 10-30 percent
chance that snow accumulations could exceed 2 inches in some spots.
Of course, we are still four days away, so these probabilities will
likely change over the next couple days.

Scenario 3 (the mixed precip-type scenario): This scenario would be
the `ceiling` of the hazardous potential. In this solution, the
surface trough does manage to evolve into a low prior to crossing
the northern part of the Florida peninsula. This solution is also a
bit slower with onset and exit of precip. Looking at modeled
profiles, the slower movement of synoptic features keeps the 700mb
WAA regime in place long enough to create a warm nose aloft (this
warm nose would be weaker and less evident the further north you
go). Some surface heating may also take place prior to the onset of
precip, which could bring surface temperatures a little above
freezing along coastal counties. Therefore, this scenario would
favor a rain to snow transition across the area, with snow in the
northern counties, rain offshore, and a zone of freezing rain/sleet
across our southern counties. Where exactly the bounds of this zone
sets up and where the heaviest accumulations would occur are unknown
at this time, but if this scenario does pan out, then an
accumulation of snow and ice would be expected. It should be noted
that some higher amounts of ice accumulation could become realized
which is why this solution would be considered the `ceiling`. It
should also be noted that guidance has been trending closer to this
solution over recent runs. 00z ensembles painted only around a 5-10%
chance of seeing freezing rain accumulation values greater than a
tenth of an inch. 12z ensembles have increased to around 15-25%
chance.
Click to expand...
 
I'll take some solace in the most recent euro run looking a bit better with our vort. Need that to continue if we want a more widespread situation (likely at the risk of mixing or losing some of our coastal or more southern members)
ecmwf_z500_vort_us_fh105_trend.gif
 
Twister said:
The Last one was gonna be an over performer too and how did that work out?
Click to expand...
The last storm failed because the warm air advection overperformed.

This storm is based on warm air advection. The more warm air advection, the more precipitation.

See how this works?
 
jackendrickwx said:
I'll take some solace in the most recent euro run looking a bit better with our vort. Need that to continue if we want a more widespread situation (likely at the risk of mixing or losing some of our coastal or more southern members)
View attachment 164747
Click to expand...
The Euro is so inconsistent….the CMC and CFS are much better. ⛄️
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 164749
Click to expand...
Looks about the same to me even though it was a tick dryer at the surface.

Honestly the 06z and 18z runs are kinda useless to me. I’ve seen the 06z/18z runs take one step forward, then the 00z/12z runs take 5 steps forward and back.

I don’t believe there is new data ingestion with the off hour runs. This is a storm where data ingestion is critical
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top