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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah latest EPS ticked NW. But hard to call it a trend when it’s been back and fourth. Could just be a blip this run, or the start of something View attachment 164764
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Looking at members…looks like 20 or so with compete whiffs and maybe a dozen like the CMC and rest, 18 or so, like the Op.

Hard to glean anything from the EPS except a whiff, CMC and coastal scraper are on the menu
 
WxDawgWx said:
Whats best case scenario everyone eating here? CMC moves south a tad?
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Either the CMC and it’s ensembles completely fold and and take that chance off the menu. Then we can really just focus on a 2014 like hope.

Or that joker trends back to how it Thursday afternoon and every one of its ensembles matches it.
 
Mitch West said:
Only through Wednesday morning. Latest EPS is better.

My last post of the night. You guys carry the logs tonight. Every hour is an hour closer. Bring the midnight rage.
View attachment 164759
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This is absolutely the image that everyone on here should be pulling for, virtually all posters see at least some semblance of snow and everyone can enjoy the rest of winter.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah latest EPS ticked NW. But hard to call it a trend when it’s been back and fourth. Could just be a blip this run, or the start of something View attachment 164764
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Yeah I wouldn't call that a trend at all, and it's pretty frustrating. I have to agree with Kylo (not the sarcastic passive aggressive one, lol) that this is the wheel house of the EPS/Euro and would be surprised if all of sudden it shot northwest that much to get 85 into a moderate event. If there was going to be a phase, it would show a solid number of members in it's ensembles wouldn't it? Doesn't seem like that's the case.

So we're no longer doing the unicorn overrunning thing, it's back to a standard Miller A low depending on a phase in the right location and perfect timing (ugh). So is the whole "it's going to have precip more nw" even applicable still? Is it the assumption of those knowledgeable that the northern wave is likely to phase with the southern wave to make a more powerful NW storm? Why? What's the basis for the optimism that this is actually going to phase and jump NW? I'm seriously asking.

Because we've got pretty much the Canadian (which also has the heavy axis to the coast) and that's it at this point so I'm trying to find solid reason for optimism.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah I wouldn't call that a trend at all, and it's pretty frustrating. I have to agree with Kylo (not the sarcastic passive aggressive one, lol) that this is the wheel house of the EPS/Euro and would be surprised if all of sudden it shot northwest that much to get 85 into a moderate event. If there was going to be a phase, it would show a solid number of members in it's ensembles wouldn't it? Doesn't seem like that's the case.

So we're no longer doing the unicorn overrunning thing, it's back to a standard Miller A low depending on a phase in the right location and perfect timing (ugh). So is the whole "it's going to have precip more nw" even applicable still? Is it the assumption of those knowledgeable that the northern wave is likely to phase with the southern wave to make a more powerful NW storm? Why? What's the basis for the optimism that this is actually going to phase and jump NW? I'm seriously asking.

Because we've got pretty much the Canadian (which also has the heavy axis to the coast) and that's it at this point so I'm trying to find solid reason for optimism.
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The Canadian model has people excited and hopeful, that is why. The is your standard deep South snow that south of 85 does better.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah I wouldn't call that a trend at all, and it's pretty frustrating. I have to agree with Kylo (not the sarcastic passive aggressive one, lol) that this is the wheel house of the EPS/Euro and would be surprised if all of sudden it shot northwest that much to get 85 into a moderate event. If there was going to be a phase, it would show a solid number of members in it's ensembles wouldn't it? Doesn't seem like that's the case.

So we're no longer doing the unicorn overrunning thing, it's back to a standard Miller A low depending on a phase in the right location and perfect timing (ugh). So is the whole "it's going to have precip more nw" even applicable still? Is it the assumption of those knowledgeable that the northern wave is likely to phase with the southern wave to make a more powerful NW storm? Why? What's the basis for the optimism that this is actually going to phase and jump NW? I'm seriously asking.

Because we've got pretty much the Canadian (which also has the heavy axis to the coast) and that's it at this point so I'm trying to find solid reason for optimism.
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Who me? I was wrong…it will snow.

The 18z CMC is probably the best run yet.


IMG_2723.gifIMG_2722.gif
 
CobraMedic said:
AND, The Canadian has a reliable verification score. Us snow weenies have to have some kind of rope to hang onto.
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Split the EPS and Canadian and you have a good idea.

Also, the jokes about the cfs.. we are using the cfs at 500mb to get an idea of angle and speed of the energy/ns. Not using it to forecast pytypes where and how much.

It's coarse resolution is like looking at an ensemble mean, which in this case, removes a bunch of junk nuance that's being drilled in on our southwest.

But I guess we shouldn't look at it since just the euro and eps are the only models that matter or something. You know.. the SW holding back bias ones look like they're going to do perfect in this type of setup..

I'm choosing to look at the cfs 500mb bc of those biases though.
 
WidreMann 2.0 said:
Split the EPS and Canadian and you have a good idea.

Also, the jokes about the cfs.. we are using the cfs at 500mb to get an idea of angle and speed of the energy/ns. Not using it to forecast pytypes where and how much.

It's coarse resolution is like looking at an ensemble mean, which in this case, removes a bunch of junk nuance that's being drilled in on our southwest.

But I guess we shouldn't look at it since just the euro and eps are the only models that matter or something. You know.. the SW holding back bias ones look like they're going to do perfect in this type of setup..

I'm choosing to look at the cfs 500mb bc of those biases though.
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Genius. And why am I posting on a wx board with Widremann as an admin? What planet am I on?
 
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WidreMann 2.0 said:
Split the EPS and Canadian and you have a good idea.

Also, the jokes about the cfs.. we are using the cfs at 500mb to get an idea of angle and speed of the energy/ns. Not using it to forecast pytypes where and how much.

It's coarse resolution is like looking at an ensemble mean, which in this case, removes a bunch of junk nuance that's being drilled in on our southwest.

But I guess we shouldn't look at it since just the euro and eps are the only models that matter or something. You know.. the SW holding back bias ones look like they're going to do perfect in this type of setup..

I'm choosing to look at the cfs 500mb bc of those biases though.
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Very good analysis. It is hard telling sarcasm with text, but what I posted was not sarcasm. I am in total agreement with you. I am holding onto the Canadian, and I still see signs from the other models that could change the whole game. We have plenty of model runs to see what will happen.
 
Arcc said:
Either the CMC and it’s ensembles completely fold and and take that chance off the menu. Then we can really just focus on a 2014 like hope.

Or that joker trends back to how it Thursday afternoon and every one of its ensembles matches it.
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January 28 2014 just brought me the disappointment of a sleetfest from start to finish with temperatures hovering in the mid 20s. I really hope the warm nose doesn't rear its ugly head this time. Give me the last 2 CMC solutions all day!
 
tractor girl said:
Could someone learn me on this.. both images have the same identical text above the panels. But each image has different outcomes in the panels. I've been staring at this longer than I should be.

Why are there different panels for the same model and hour run?
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50 different ensemble members, 25 in one panel and the other 25 in the other. You can see the member numbers bottom of each one
 
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