iGRXY
Member
While the surface is bone dry, you’re already seeing the mid and low levels really starting to moisten up quite a bit
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Wintry January 21-23 2025
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
While the surface is bone dry, you’re already seeing the mid and low levels really starting to moisten up quite a bit
RobertRath
Member
More preferred than watching a storm go 150-200 miles to my south, but that’s just my opinion. At least there’s a chance if comes north.
The hours and hours of watching Virga on the radar while checking Mping reports every few minutes coming Tuesday isn't for the faint of heart.
iGRXY
Member
ICON is following the NAM on more digging
Hot off the presses, I ain't mad.... picking up on some modeling shifting the axis ever so slightly westward and man look at the OBX
Icon digging more. But more importantly let’s see what it does the with northern stream mess as that dictates the whole thing
Please keep this thread for storm specific discussion, all other discussion can go in banter please. I've moved some but mostly just delete post because it is less time consuming to do so.
Thank you
Thank you
lexxnchloe
Member
It should be slightly better than 18z
iGRXY
Member
Quite a bit further NW but tbh it was so bad previously this still won’t do muchrburrel2
Member
Rgem out to 59hrs and I swear it looks even better than the 18z run. The northern stream piece is a lot further west and closer to the southern vort max.
rburrel2
Member
I mean... ?
iGRXY
Member
I’ll give it, it’s due .. it’s consistent if nothing elsebeanskip
Member
Well, the 0z ICON isn't another whiff, but it barely fouled the pitch off ....
Cad Wedge NC
Member
This is trending back to those long over-running looks we were seeing in earlier runs.
is it gonna stop 
iGRXY
Member
Just beautiful manbeanskip
Member
Actually, the ICON delivers a sporty little ice storm to areas like Lake City, Gainesville and Jacksonville.
That's a north trend right? ducks.
beanskip
Member
Look, is there some rule somewhere, written on the Great Weather Tablets or something, that says the outlier model with the amazing, region-wide, historic storm can't score a coup JUST ONCE?????
The CMC will be must-see TV in less than an hour. Oh, Canada!
iGRXY
Member
Pops
Member
Northern stream west sw flow more pollard. If so precipitation coming north. But is it real
Pops
Member
Poleward
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I know that’s la la range for the RGEM, but that looks good
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Snowflowxxl
Member
It’s the RGEM at hour 84, let’s have some self respect now….
two words: large features
What is this waviness in the isobars seen inland from east Texas into Alabama? I recall seeing that as a sign of rapid deepening. Is that right?
FWIW vs the 12z CMC.
In fact it lines up more with the doomsday run of Thursday.
There's just not much value in the NAM and RGEM at 84 hrs. I mean, I do not think this is just going to be a coastal or fish storm. But I can't justify that by using the 84 hr RGEM.
I also don't think they yield much value in terms of predicting what the GFS or CMC will do In their next cycle. You'll see what I mean in a few minutes.
NCSNOW
Member
Ill be shocked if we dont see another op or two ,besides Canadian go for broke an pull off a triple phaser between now an Sunday 12z. NAM GFS RDPS an Ukmet are most likely candidtes.
Important runs coming in tonight through 12z tomorrow, our pacific wave is about to cross onto land with more obs 
A couple things to notice early on the GFS is the base of the western ridge is a bit weaker but the ridge is stronger poleward
Poor Cali with this trend. Just fanning the flames 
Cad Wedge NC
Member
This has to be better....
Gotta see what the northern stream does even if we get the vort to dig more we need the northern stream not to press down to much
Hope it doesn’t get left and sheared. 
I think this is gonna be a strike out.
Edit: in thirty minutes we are gonna either know that hope remains for a big dog for most most or not.
Edit: in thirty minutes we are gonna either know that hope remains for a big dog for most most or not.
It's going to. The good runs had the base of the trough "reaching back" toward the sw energy. Not happening here.
Yup. Northern stream ahead to much. Bad
iGRXY
Member
As nasty as the H5 look was we still ended up at the same spot