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Wintry January 21-23 2025

Chazwin said:
Ok I’m gonna throw this out there but what exactly is going on with this modeling right. The NAVGEM is model that has a bias towards suppression but it’s one of the most amped.
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Opposite world. The time when the CMC, NAVGEM and CFS revolt and whip the rest. The NAM is waiting patiently to join them.
 
I got laughed at for saying this but this is a SE of 85 storm all day long. NW of there may see minor accumulations. Putting all your chips on the CMC is ludicrous. The only saving grace I see for areas NW is the HP comes in weaker and allows precipitation to blossom further NW.
 
KyloG said:
18z AI….it really wouldn’t take much. Just saying…

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As long as the southern piece is a 1000 miles away from the trough, ain't nothing gonna happen. Kicker still coming in hot.

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You can see the CMC from last night has the two connected.

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Things looking rougher today for sure.
 
KyloG said:
AI vs CMC…can see the difference with the northern energy digging further west. Wouldn’t take much either way.

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That is just nuts that such a small change can make that much difference. Maybe the CMC is just completely smoking pot or the precip algorithm is goofed.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah I wouldn't call that a trend at all, and it's pretty frustrating. I have to agree with Kylo (not the sarcastic passive aggressive one, lol) that this is the wheel house of the EPS/Euro and would be surprised if all of sudden it shot northwest that much to get 85 into a moderate event. If there was going to be a phase, it would show a solid number of members in it's ensembles wouldn't it? Doesn't seem like that's the case.

So we're no longer doing the unicorn overrunning thing, it's back to a standard Miller A low depending on a phase in the right location and perfect timing (ugh). So is the whole "it's going to have precip more nw" even applicable still? Is it the assumption of those knowledgeable that the northern wave is likely to phase with the southern wave to make a more powerful NW storm? Why? What's the basis for the optimism that this is actually going to phase and jump NW? I'm seriously asking.

Because we've got pretty much the Canadian (which also has the heavy axis to the coast) and that's it at this point so I'm trying to find solid reason for optimism.
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All we need is Kylo’s image here. Just have the NStream and SW wave line up and come on out as one unit - gives you the SW flow overrunning into the cold air. Shouldn’t be that hard, but we can’t have the 2 be disjointed where the NStream gets out ahead of the SW wave. That weakens and disrupts the SW flow

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beanskip said:
There was one in Destin/FWB/Defuniak and nearby areas in, I believe, 2014. Closed all the bridges (which is a lot).
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The Mobile and Pensacola areas got heavy sleet followed by several hours of light freezing rain with temps in the mid and upper 20s from that storm. A 3/4 inch to 1 inch thick sheet of solid ice formed in the parking lot of the apartment complex I lived in at the time. You literally could have put on ice skates and skated on certain parts of the parking lot.

This ice storm was somewhat overshadowed at the time because it occurred on the same day and as part of the same system that produced the "Snowmaggedon" traffic fiasco in the Atlanta and Birmingham areas.
 
griteater said:
All we need is Kylo’s image here. Just have the NStream and SW wave line up and come on out as one unit - gives you the SW flow overrunning into the cold air. Shouldn’t be that hard, but we can’t have the 2 be disjointed where the NStream gets out ahead of the SW wave. That weakens and disrupts the SW flow

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Maybe the GFS can end up being the floor. This don’t look all that great but still gives more folks an event.




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Rain Cold said:
As long as the southern piece is a 1000 miles away from the trough, ain't nothing gonna happen. Kicker still coming in hot.

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You can see the CMC from last night has the two connected.

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Things looking rougher today for sure.
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Good post Rain. The euro and Uk didn’t have good looks this evening. As @griteater mentioned earlier, can’t have that northern energy ahead or we’re in trouble.
 
Would surprise me if the UK doesn’t tick better tonight.

Total butterfly effect with these models…who sneezed. 🤧
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I hope the GFS is an outlier for P-types along the northern Gulf coast, as it would bring the mix line near my location, and bring freezing rain and sleet as far north as Baton Rouge, New Orleans, and other cities along the Gulf coast. We need a way more of us can win, without sacrificing those on the coast.
 
The thing for me, and we saw guidance pointing to it over a week ago, is 3 branches of the jet stream (sub-tropical, sub polar and polar) are phasing over the eastern US. Often times when that happens you get a big storm. If you would hand me the 300mb map below @114hrs and ask me to draw in surface features I would have a deapening lp coming out of the Gulf.

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